By Dan Kilbridge | | 4 mins
Why You Should Bet LSU To Win CFP Championship 2019
This is the third in a four-part series looking at National Championship odds and making the case for all four College Football Playoff teams, including how to bet them with the most value.Also check out:
- Why You Should Bet Clemson to Win CFP Championship 2019
- Why You Should Bet Ohio State to Win CFP Championship 2019
- Why You Should Bet Oklahoma to Win CFP Championship 2019
Bettors need to ask themselves one question before placing any college football futures wagers.
Are you comfortable going against Joe Burrow?
Think long and hard, because the LSU quarterback is playing out of his mind and getting better by the week. He’s the reason the Tigers are the consensus college football betting favorite to win the national championship, with the best odds listed at +180 at FanDuel. He’s also the reason it’s hard to resist those odds entering LSU’s semifinal matchup against No. 4 Oklahoma on Dec. 28 in the Peach Bowl.
LSU’s dominant showing in the SEC title game brought those odds down quite a bit. The Tigers were +275 to win it all before beating up on Georgia in a 37-10 win. Now they’re ahead of both Clemson (+180) and Ohio State (+200) at FanDuel, while the Sooners are a serious long shot (+1000).
So the odds aren’t what they were, but that win over Georgia helped LSU’s chances in the long run. It was strong enough that LSU jumped OSU in the final CFP rankings to grab the No. 1 spot and ensure a semifinal matchup with the Sooners in the Peach Bowl.
LSU-Oklahoma CFP Betting Line On The Rise
The Tigers opened as 11.5-point favorites and the line already has moved to -13.5. LSU is -500 on the moneyline and few are expecting an upset in Atlanta, at the same venue where the Tigers just pounded the Bulldogs.
Basically, unless you’re predicting a big semifinal upset, treat that +180 like an LSU moneyline bet in a hypothetical title game against Ohio State or Clemson.
Going back to the original question, do you really want to bet against Burrow right now? The dude just surpassed Colt McCoy with the highest single-season completion percentage in college football history. Burrow completed 77.9 percent of his passes and threw for 4,715 yards, 48 touchdowns and six interceptions.
His leadership is already the stuff of legend in Baton Rouge. He’s extremely slippery in the pocket and ran for nearly 300 yards with three rushing scores this season. And he threw for more than 320 yards in 11 of 13 games.
Joe Burrow Changes CFP 2019 Outlook
One can argue Clemson and Ohio State are more complete teams than LSU, but Burrow changes the argument. His ability is overwhelming for even elite defenses like Georgia’s. It has been similar to what Cam Newton did for Auburn in 2010, leading the Tigers to a 14-0 National Championship season. Opponents just didn’t have an answer for Newton, who racked up 50 total touchdowns. Burrow already has 51 in one fewer game.
A defense that ranked seventh in the SEC is the biggest question for LSU, but a lot of those yards were surrendered when the Tigers already had a big lead. They’ve only given up 17 points the past two games and they don’t need to be perfect. Alabama and Ole Miss tried and failed to hang with LSU in a shootout, as Burrow and the offense hung 46 on the Tide and 58 against the Rebels.
We can split hairs all day on matchups and schemes, but every so often there’s one player good enough to transcend it all. Burrow is that good. We wouldn’t bet against him.