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Why You Should Bet Oklahoma To Win CFP Championship 2019

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

Dan Kilbridge  | 4 mins

Why You Should Bet Oklahoma To Win CFP Championship 2019

This is the fourth in a four-part series looking at National Championship odds and making the case for all four College Football Playoff teams, including how to bet them with the most value.

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The field for the 2019 College Football Championship makes one thing clear. Great defense is a bonus in the modern game. Great offense is a must.

LSU, Ohio State, Clemson and Oklahoma all finished in the nation’s top five in total offense this season at more than 530 yards per game.

Utah and Georgia both finished top-four in total defense, but outside the top 30 in total offense. They’ll be watching the playoff from home. LSU’s 37-10 win over Georgia in the SEC title game underscored the gap between top offenses and defenses these days.

It all goes to show that a college football futures bet on an overlooked Oklahoma team to win the CFP isn’t the craziest idea. Especially not with +1200 odds at SugarHouse compared to the rest of the field compared to LSU (+120), Clemson (+200) and OSU (+225).

Oklahoma Offense Stacks Up With Joe Burrow, LSU

The No. 4-ranked Sooners are 13-point underdogs in their Dec. 28 Peach Bowl semifinal matchup against No. 1 LSU. Good luck finding anyone who likes the Sooners straight up in college football betting. But look at the numbers and you’ll realize OU was every bit as explosive as LSU.

The Tigers finished first in the nation in total offense at 554.4 yards per game. OU was less than a yard back at No. 2, gaining 554.2 yards per game.

The Sooners also averaged more yards per play (8.15) than LSU (7.79) – most in the nation, in fact – and quarterback Jalen Hurts finished with just 115 fewer yards of total offense than soon-to-be Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow. Whereas Jake Fromm and the Georgia offense couldn’t do anything after falling behind two scores in Atlanta, Hurts and the Sooners have been winning shootouts all season.

The concern is that OU’s defense doesn’t stand a chance against Burrow considering it gave up 40-plus points to both Kansas State and Iowa State. But the Sooners defense has been better in recent weeks, holding TCU, Oklahoma State and Baylor to 24 points or fewer in the final three games.

CeeDee Lamb Ready For Big Stage In 2019 CFP

Offensively, receiver CeeDee Lamb is back to full strength, going off for 173 yards against Baylor in the Big 12 title game. And LSU’s secondary has struggled to contain potent passing attacks throughout the season. Alabama’s DeVonta Smith caught seven passes for 213 yards and two scores against the Tigers. Florida racked up 311 receiving yards and four touchdowns in Baton Rouge. Ole Miss’ Elijah Moore caught nine passes for 143 yards and one score as the Rebels went for 614 yards of offense.

The SEC title game proved that trying to slow things down while playing a field position game won’t work against the Tigers. Georgia couldn’t have failed harder in that regard. OU has the horses to attack LSU’s weaknesses on defense and hold its own in a shootout.

The Sooners need good breaks along the way and can’t self-harm with penalties or turnovers. Even the most disciplined of games might not be enough and we haven’t even mentioned a potential national championship game against Clemson or Ohio State.

Speaking of OSU, the 2014-15 Buckeyes snuck into the CFP as a No. 4 seed and won it all. Alabama did the same three years later. Can the Sooners follow suit? That offense just might give them a chance to pull off the biggest CFP upset yet.

About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.