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Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

By Adam Thompson | | 4 mins

Aaron Judge Next Team Odds: Hometown Giants Given 28.6% Chance

Aaron Judge Next Team Odds: Hometown Giants Given 28.6% Chance

Aaron Judge avoided arbitration for this year by signing a new deal for the 2022 season. But right now that’s it for the New York Yankees star slugger. He is an unrestricted free agent after this season and he’s going to command top dollar in free agency. 

How much will Judge command on the open market? He turned down a seven-year, $213.5 million extension in spring training, and some pundits believe he could get a deal in excess of $300 million. 

Judge said he wants to be in pinstripes “for a long time" during All-Star Game media availability, but on Tuesday he set the internet on fire when he danced around a question from ESPN's Marly Rivera on whether he'll be a Yankee next year.

And let's not forget this past April, when he told the media during a postgame press conference: "At the end of the year, I'm a free agent. I will talk to 30 teams, and the Yankees will be one of those 30 teams." 

Another of those 30 teams is the cross-town rival Mets, who now spend just as much as the Yankees under new owner Steve Cohen.

With all this in mind, Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson has revealed his MLB odds for the four-time All Star, who is currently at +150 to win AL MVP (trailing only Shohei Ohtani) in MLB futures odds, according to DraftKings. 

Aaron Judge 2023 Team Odds

TeamOddsimplied probability
New York Yankees+11047.6%
San Francisco Giants+25028.6%
Los Angeles Dodgers+55015.4%
Chicago Cubs+10009.1%
New York Mets+15006.25%
The Field +800 11.1%

This hypothetical MLB betting market is for entertainment purposes only and does not reflect any market that may be available on betting sites and betting apps.

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Judge is on pace to have his best season. At the All-Star Break, he leads baseball in home runs, runs scored and total bases. It's worth reiterating that he trails only the incomparable dual threat Shohei Ohtani in the American League MVP futures at most online sportsbooks.

The deal offered by the Yankees that averaged out to just over $30 million annually was considerably under the $36 million the outfielder is reportedly seeking. 

As much as other teams will want Judge, the Yankees don’t get outbid on guys they really want. That said, there are legitimate contenders out there. 

The Giants get the heartfelt nod. Judge is from the Bay Area and was a huge Giants fan growing up. This is his opportunity to return home. San Francisco has $59 million coming off the payroll for 2023 so it should have the capital and the core pieces in place to make a run and compete. 

The Dodgers have a seemingly unlimited budget and nearly $100 million coming off the books this off-season. Dodgers center field Cody Bellinger is due for arbitration next season and is a free agent the following year; he could be considered expendable with that money going to Judge. 

The Cubs are poised to spend some money after cutting over the last few seasons to rebuild. Chicago was a top-five spender for several seasons. The Twins added Carlos Correa at $30 million annually and shown interest to add another key anchor in the order. 

The Field has a few intriguing teams, but the Yankees will likely do what it takes to ensure the lead options don’t happen. Judge’s legacy would be tarnished in the Bronx if he left to join the Mets. But it’s become clear new owner Steve Cohen will throw LIV-like money at players if he really wants them in Queens. His Yankees legacy might be worse if he joined the Red Sox for 2023. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been estabilshed as one of the nation's premier NFL and MLB handicappers, and his horse racing and PGA picks have produced major winners over the last 12 months.