Astros Huge MLB Odds Favorite Again Vs. Tigers After Upset

By David Caraviello

Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EST

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For bettors backing the Houston Astros, it has become a familiar and unfortunate theme — watching the best team in the American League West cough up a game late as a massive MLB betting odds favorite.

Wednesday night it happened against the worst team in Major League Baseball, as the Detroit Tigers struck in the top of the ninth inning to record one of the biggest betting upsets in baseball history. The Astros had been a -556 favorite as of Wednesday afternoon.

And yet, Wednesday’s upset hasn’t deterred sportsbooks from favoring the Astros again by lines as large as -588 for Thursday night’s game against the Tigers.

Houston starter Gerrit Cole has won 10 straight decisions since his last loss on May 22, though he was scratched from his last scheduled outing with a hamstring problem, the Houston Chronicle reported.

The big number was somewhat understandable, given that the Astros had won eight straight at home, had lost just 15 games at Minute Maid Park all season, and had ace Justin Verlander — winner of five consecutive decisions — on the mound. The Tigers scratched out just two hits but won the game after John Hicks homered off Verlander in the top of the ninth.

Detroit Tigers: ‘Sorry Not Sorry’

If it wasn’t the biggest betting upset in baseball history, it was certainly close. SugarHouse sportsbook analyst David Tuchman called the massive line favoring the Astros an “incredibly rare” one. It was a case of serious MLB consensus betting as Houston got 90 percent of the action to win the game in some places.

According to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, some books had Houston as large as a -600 favorite against the Tigers, who have MLB’s worst record.

According to ESPN, Houston on Wednesday night was the biggest MLB betting favorite in 15 years. Detroit clearly relished its underdog role and, in an unusual case of a team acknowledging MLB betting odds, addressed it on Twitter.

“Sorry not sorry, Vegas,” the Tigers tweeted on their official account after the victory.

It was the second time in less than two weeks that the Astros had lost a game in the ninth inning as a huge betting favorite. On Aug. 11 the Astros were favored in Baltimore by odds of -450 and higher, with some sportsbooks offering Houston as high as -550. The Orioles stunned the Astros with an 8-7 victory on Rio Ruiz’s two-run homer, in a game that Houston had led 7-5 entering the bottom of the ninth.

Houston Astros Big Favorites Again

Verlander was the starting pitcher in the Baltimore game as well and was left with a no-decision. Wednesday night’s loss to Detroit was his first loss since July 5. Four Tigers pitchers combined to limit Houston to one run on six hits and send the Astros to their first loss at home since July 23.

Detroit starter Jordan Zimmerman won his most recent decision on July 29 after starting the season 0-8. As of Thursday morning, 84 percent of the action on online sportsbooks for Thursday’s game was coming in on the Astros.

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About the Author

David Caraviello

More About David

Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.

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