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Carlos Rodon Free Agency Odds: Yankees Take the Lead

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 4 mins

Carlos Rodon Free Agency Odds: Yankees Take the Lead

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Carlos Rodon has 27 wins and a 2.66 ERA over the last two seasons. He was an All-Star the past two seasons and finished in the top 6 in Cy Young voting, last season with the Giants and with the White Sox the year prior. 

Now he’s a free agent, and there isn’t a brighter pitcher on the market right now than the 30-year-old Rodon. 

Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson has revealed his MLB futures odds for Rodon’s 2023 team. 

Carlos Rodon 2023 Team Odds

TeamOddsImplied Probability
New York Yankees+25028.6%
San Francisco Giants+30025.0%
St. Louis Cardinals+40020.0%
Boston Red Sox+40020.0%
Los Angeles Dodgers+70012.5%
The Field+65013.3%

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Rodon was a beast in 2022 for the Giants, going 14-8 with a 2.88 ERA, with 237 strikeouts in 178 innings. The year before, he posted a 2.37 ERA in 132.2 frames for the White Sox. 

He’s hitting his stride and is expected to command top dollar as the best remaining pitcher on the market, perhaps the top starter behind Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander, both closer to 40 than they are 30. 

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Rodon is reportedly seeking a seven-year deal – somewhat steep for someone with his injury history, though he’s been mostly fine the last two years. 

Yankees and Giants Are Playing Ball

The Yankees just outbid the Giants for OF Aaron Judge and now it appears they’re going to make a run at San Francisco’s top pitcher and next big target. One could argue New York doesn’t need a starting pitcher, but it has the funds to replace Jameson Taillon for an ace-level talent. 

The Giants have made it clear they want to bring their ace back, and Rodon has mentioned his fondness for his one season in the Bay Area. San Francisco has sounded tentative in offering such a long deal for Rodon, however. And the team did add a bit of insurance on Monday, signing Athletics standout Sean Manaea for far less and far fewer years. 

Are the Cardinals & the Red Sox Contenders?

The Cardinals and Red Sox are both reportedly in the mix as well, for good reason. 

St. Louis doesn’t have a massive need for starting pitching now, but only one starter has a deal past 2023 and Adam Wainwright has already announced next year will be his last. The Cardinals have been amazing at reloading rather than rebuilding, so this type of proactiveness is a trademark.

Boston could vastly improve a rotation that has, at best, two consistent performers, excluding Nathan Eovaldi, who is a free agent. Adding Rodon and hopefully Chris Sale (injuries always pending) could make a world of difference in a competitive and improving AL East. 

The Dodgers remain in the “realm of possibility,” according to MLB FOX insider Pedro Moura, but it remains to be seen their level of interest. 

The Field has a slew of teams in need of starting pitching but without the funds or the inclination in outbidding the big boys, at least for the moment. The Astros, Mets, Rangers and Padres have the most potential to make a case, if they so choose, while the Orioles, Twins and Blue Jays have shown moderate interest but maybe not enough in keeping up financially. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.