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Shohei Ohtani Trade Odds: Mets Given 25% Chance to Land Phenom

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 5 mins

Shohei Ohtani Trade Odds: Mets Given 25% Chance to Land Phenom

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Not only is Shohei Ohtani one of the top pitchers in MLB, he is one of the premier hitters in the game. He’s the Babe Ruth of the 21st Century. He also might be on his way out of Anaheim sooner rather than later. 

It seems unfathomable that the Los Angeles Angels would ship away the game’s transcendent star. But Ohtani is a free agent after the 2023 season, and his agent has said he will be testing the market; there will be no extension with the Angels. 

So now the Angels must weigh their options. They could try and ride Ohtani and Mike Trout to their first postseason berth since 2014. But if the season goes south, finances and the potential to reload a terrible farm system (ranked 25th as of February) may push a trade to a contender. 

Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson has revealed the hypothetical MLB odds for Ohtani's next team, whenever that might be. 

Shohei Ohtani Next Team Odds

TeamOddsImplied Probability
New York Mets+30025.0%
New York Yankees+35022.2%
Los Angeles Dodgers+45018.2%
Texas Rangers+75011.8%
Boston Red Sox+80011.1%
San Diego Padres+10009.1%
Philadelphia Phillies+10009.1%
The Field+70012.5%

This hypothetical MLB betting market is for entertainment purposes only and does not reflect any market that may be available on betting sites and betting apps.

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Ohtani, who has regularly declared that winning is his main goal, admitted he didn't have a lot of fun in 2022 as the Angels went 73-89 and were once again non-contenders. "I have a rather negative impression of the season," he told reporters in Tokyo when he arrived home last fall. 

Ohtani made $5.5 million in 2022 as arguably one of the biggest bargains in modern sports history. He'll earn $30 million in '23 in arbitration before he becomes an unrestricted free agent for 2024. 

Ohtani could surpass $50 million annually in free agency, and $500 million in overall contract value. At those numbers, the Angels may not be able to afford him. And it sounds like Ohtani wants out anyway.

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The Angels already have two players making major money. Mike Trout is locked up through 2030 at a rate of $37.1 million per year. And we cannot forget, Anthony Rendon, who hasn't played more than 58 games in any of his three seasons in L.A., is tied up through 2026 at a rate of $38.5 million per year. Rendon and Trout rank third and fourth in MLB, respectively, in annual base salary. Can the Angels really afford three of the top five? Probably not.

In-season, it wouldn't take a team with a mega bankroll to make an Ohtani deal work. It could take a team willing to trade a bunch of good prospects (and potential MLB players), especially pitchers, and in win-now mode for one fall.

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Potential Landing Spots For Ohtani

The Mets have made it clear they are interested in Ohtani if he's available. In terms of trade pieces, it’s arguable they have enough to get L.A.’s interest. They have catcher Francisco Alvarez, one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and current Mets GM Billy Eppler was GM of the Angels when they successfully recruited Ohtani from Japan.

Mets owner Steve Cohen appears willing to spend as much money as possible to bring a World Series title to Queens. The Mets' 2023 projected payroll of $336 million is nearly $70 million more than any other team and well over double the league average. Although not available on California betting sites, the Mets lead our hypothetical Ohtani market for those reasons above.

The Yankees rank No. 2 in 2023 payroll. Is it really possible the pinstripes let the Mets outbid them on the league's top player? The Dodgers have had interest in Ohtani since his days in Japan and have loads of talent they could move. The question is whether the team from the county next door, one already considered a "little brother", would move such a star to their geographic rival. 

After those three heavy hitters, the forecast is fogged between teams that may want that one-season rental on a superstar, teams that may want to make an epic free agent splash, or both. 

When it comes to those that may use Shohei for a World Series run in 2023, the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres have proven to be aggressive move-makers. The Phillies have loaded up for another championship quest after winning the NL pennant. The Padres get Fernando Tatis back and are loaded up for a run of their own. 

The Cardinals have a deep roster of trade chips and a roster built to win now. They may be involved if Ohtani trade talks get serious. 

For teams that have cash and an itch to become contenders, the Texas Rangers' payroll has jumped from $95 million in 2021 to $181 million this year, including the addition of Cy Young hurler Jacob deGrom. The Boston Red Sox shaved $45 million from their ledgers from a year ago, perhaps positioning themselves to make a splash and reenter the conversations in 2024. 

The Field is led by teams that may be interested in renting Shohei for a few months if the season goes well, including the Blue Jays, Giants and Twins

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been estabilshed as one of the nation's premier NFL and MLB handicappers, and his horse racing and PGA picks have produced major winners over the last 12 months.
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