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Yoshinobu Yamamoto Next Team Odds: Yankees Take The Lead In This Intense MLB Deal

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 5 mins

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Next Team Odds: Yankees Take The Lead In This Intense MLB Deal

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Casual MLB fans may not know who Yoshinobu Yamamoto is, but all MLB teams do and they want him on their roster for 2024. 

Yamamoto is a Japanese phenom pitcher who is expected to “post” as an eligible MLB free agent. The 25-year-old went 17-6 this past season in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, with a minuscule 1.16 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. He struck out 176 in 171 innings thrown. 

Now that transcendent star Shohei Ohtani has signed with the Dodgers, Yamamoto is the most-sought after free agent on the market.

Bookies.com veteran oddsmaker Adam Thompson has researched the MLB landscape and updated MLB odds as to where Yamamoto will play his home games in 2024. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2024 Team Odds

TeamOddsImplied Probability
New York Yankees+17536.4%
Los Angeles Dodgers+20033.3%
New York Mets+27526.7%
Boston Red Sox+12007.7%
Toronto Blue Jays+14006.7%
Philadelphia Phillies+14006.7%
San Francisco Giants+15006.3%
St. Louis Cardinals+17505.4%

This hypothetical MLB betting market is for entertainment purposes only and does not reflect any market that may be available on betting sites and betting apps.

There aren’t many teams out there that wouldn’t have “add No. 1 starter” on their off-season goals. The question is, how much can one afford? Yamamoto won’t come cheap. The belief among MLB insiders is he’ll be offered as much as $300 million, and could get 10 years, something that no pitcher has ever received. 

The New York Mets have made it clear they want Yamamoto. They found great success with fellow Japanese pitcher Kodai Senga, who went 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA in his rookie 2023 season. Yamamoto is considered even better. The Mets have funds if they choose to spend them, and their success with Senga is presumably a nice recruiting tool. 

Mets owner Steve Cohen flew to Japan last week to meet with Yamamoto, showing a level of commitment that might land them the No. 2 prize in free agency. 


RELATED: Shohei Ohtani Next Team Odds


The New York Yankees are expecting to make a major bid for Yamamoto. The Bombers lose Luis Severino and Frankie Montas and have questions everywhere in the rotation below Gerrit Cole. One MLB insider says he expected the Yankees will “blow away the field” for Yamamoto’s services. 

With the MLB winter meetings set for Nashville in early December, there is belief in MLB circles that the Mets and Yankees will be bent on out-bidding one another, leaving other teams in the dust. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers aren't often outbid, however, and need a younger, top-tier ace. Yamamoto reportedly would prefer to play in a large market, and many Japanese and Korean players have understandably focused on West Coast locations. They just spent $700M on Ohtani, but much of that money was deferred, allowing L.A. to stay in the market for top-tier players. 

The Dodgers met with Yamamoto, with Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and other key players there for a star-powered recruiting pitch. 

One MLB insider said recently the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers are by far the top contenders, "and I have a hard time believing it'll be anyone else." 

The Boston Red Sox are desperate to become a contender again, especially after finishing an embarrassing dead-last in the competitive AL East. Boston has money to spend, and Yamamoto is strongly on their radar to be the centerpiece of a revamped rotation. The Sox also have an ace in the hole, in Yamamoto's friend in OF Masatake Yoshida, who they signed last year and had a successful first season in Beantown. 

The Toronto Blue Jays are looking to go all-in while their star hitters are still cheap and under team control. They have four veteran starters with an opening for a fifth spot. Sliding down the likes of Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman adds a unique level of depth to the rotation. 

The Philadelphia Phillies locked up Aaron Nola for the long term, but reportedly aren't resting on that, pursuing Yamamoto to form a formidable Big Three with Zack Wheeler and get back to the World Series after falling in the 2022 Fall Classic. 

The San Francisco Giants are each looking to improve their rotations, and after missing out on Ohtani have money to spend. Keeping up with the New York teams is a tall task, but not impossible. 

Reports surfaced that the Giants and Red Sox had already offered Yamamoth contracts of at least $300 million in total worth, though those rumors were proved to be unfounded. That doesn't mean San Francisco and Boston won't go that big when the time comes. 

The St. Louis Cardinals could be the dark horse in the Yamamoto sweepstakes. The Cards have a wealth of intertwining connections that could make the move more comforting for the import. St. Louis’ long history of success could be enticing as well. They just inked Sonny Gray, who finished No. 2 in AL Cy Young Award voting last season, which may dampen their drive to get Yamamoto. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.