Basketball Hall of Fame Odds & Analysis for Current NBA stars
Mark Strotman | 9 mins
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The newest class of NBA Hall of Famers will be inducted in Springfield, Mass. on Saturday, Sept. 10. That class—which includes Tim Hardaway, Manu Ginobili, and George Karl among others—already knows they’ve made the cut and joined the best of the best in the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame.
For some of the current players below, there’s some debate about their candidacies. It’s important to note that these hypothetical odds and the analysis that follows takes into account what we expect these players to do during the rest of their careers—not as if they retired today.
Here’s a look at some of the players who may or may not join the elite. These odds have been created by our Bookies.com NBA handicapper Adam Thompson and do not reflect odds that may be available on legal betting apps. The analysis that follows is from Mark Strotman, our NBA prop betting expert.
Who Could Join The Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame?
These odds are hypothetical and were created by our Bookies.com NBA handicapper Adam Thompson. They do not reflect odds that may be available elsewhere. What follows below is analysis on the odds from our NBA prop betting expert Mark Strotman.
- 3x Defensive Player of the Year; 8x All-Star; 5x First Team All-NBA; 1x NBA champion; 5x rebounding champion
- Basketball-Reference HoF probability: 99.73%
Let’s make this quick—because despite a faction of NBA fans failing to understand Howard’s dominance in the 2010s, he’s an absolute lock for the Hall of Fame:
- Howard has eight All-Star appearances, something just 62 players in NBA history have accomplished. All but one (sorry, Larry Foust) are either Hall of Famers or on track to become one. Howard will not be the second to miss out.
- Howard has made First Team All-NBA five times at center, and while the positional disparity somewhat plays into this, he’s one of 26 players to achieve that feat. All are in the Hall of Fame. He has more First Team All-NBA selections than Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Paul, Kevin Garnett, and Steph Curry.
- Howard is a five-time rebounding champion, and while that’s not necessarily a barometer for Hall of Fame candidacy, consider that he trails just Wilt Chamberlain (11), Dennis Rodman (7), and Moses Malone (6). Those three players? You guessed it. All in the Hall of Fame.
- The cherry on top? Howard is a three-time Defensive Player of the Year—and the only player to win the award three consecutive seasons (2009-2011).
Are you seeing what we’re getting at? Howard is a first ballot, surefire, lock of a Hall of Famer. Don’t let the second half of his career fool you. Adam's odds of -10000 reflect that.
- 5x All-Star, 2x Second Team All-NBA, 2012 Olympic Gold medal winner, 1x NBA champion, 1x Most Improved Player
- Basketball-Reference HoF probability: 73.47%
This is one of the harder ones on the list to predict. On the one hand, Love is a five-time All-Star and has two of the truly great individual seasons of his era—26 and 13 in both 2012 and 2014—and was an instrumental part of the historic 2016 Cavaliers championship team.
He’s also got longevity—he quietly averaged 13.6 points in his Age-33, Year-14 season, which shouldn’t go unnoticed. Basketball Reference’s Similarity Score posts his current career trajectory closest to Grant Hill, who made the Hall of Fame in 2018. Love also has an Olympic gold medal, he was a highly decorated high school player, and a Three-Point Contest champion in 2012. He also holds the NBA record for most consecutive double-doubles (53), accomplished at just 23 years old.
Still, we’re leaning no on Love and we like the plus odds at +145. In three seasons, he played 18 (2013), 22 (2019), and 25 (2021) games. His raw numbers took a serious hit in his early Cleveland days as third fiddle to LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, and he never excelled defensively despite being a rebounding champion in 2011. It’s the Hall of Fame—not the Hall of Very Good—and in our opinion, Love will come up short.
- 6x All-Star, 4x Third Team All-NBA, 5x All-Defensive Second Team, 1x Olympic Gold medal, 1x Most Improved Player
- Basketball-Reference HoF probability: 71.05%
Butler isn’t dominant at one thing - but he is entirely solid at every aspect of the game. He has put together a strong case for Hall of Fame candidacy despite never earning All-NBA First or Second Team honors. And that’s because Butler has been named to six All-Star Games, been named to the All-NBA Third Team four times, and done some of his best work in the postseason—2020’s NBA postseason run may have put him over the top, averaging 26.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 9.8 assists in the Finals against the Lakers.
Butler may not be in if he retired today—but he’s also not done. He has found another gear in Miami, earning All-Star nods at ages 30 and 32 years old. He’s showing no signs of slowing down, and another few All-Star appearances would likely put him into the lock category. He may not be in the Locker Room Hall of Fame, but Butler has put together a Hall of Fame career thanks to his consistency, ability to show up in the clutch, and elevating his team’s play each season. We agree with Adam's odds on Butler of -240 to get in - Butler should be a Hall of Famer.
- 3x Defensive Player of the Year, 3x All-Star, 6x All-NBA Defensive First Team, 2020 Olympic Silver medal, 3x All-NBA Third Team, 1x All-NBA Second Team
- Basketball-Reference HoF probability: 19.80%
Looking for (hypothetical) value? Rudy Gobert is your man. A potential Hall of Famer who averaged just 12.4 points through his first nine seasons? Yep. What Gobert lacks as a scorer—he has led the NBA in FG% three of the last four seasons, albeit with everything coming at the rim—Gobert is the greatest rim protector of his generation and led some of his era’s best defenses. A three-time Defensive Player of the Year who has averaged 2 or more blocks eight consecutive seasons, Gobert added rebounding champion to his resume in 2022 in what was his third consecutive All-Star campaign.
Let’s also not forget the international aspect to Gobert’s resume. True, Tony Parker truly put France on the NBA map with his stellar play for the Spurs in the 2000s (that was ultimately a Hall of Fame career), Gobert has helped the French stay on the map—case in point, the French national team didn’t qualify for the Olympics in 2004 or 2008, then qualified and finished sixth in 2012 and 2016, respectively. Gobert joined the 2020 team and helped the French to a silver medal finish in a loss to the United States (Gobert had a team-high 16 points and 8 rebounds in the loss).
And he’s only 29! The second half of his career begins in Minnesota alongside Karl Towns, and we’ll see if they can find success with a two-center lineup in today’s shrinking NBA. We believe Gobert will continue to find success, turn around Minnesota’s defense, and ultimately find himself elected to the Hall of Fame. To get +240 odds on that from Adam Thompson? Yes please!
- 3x All-Star, 1x NBA MVP, 1x Rookie of the Year, 1x All-NBA First Team
- Basketball-Reference HoF probability: 11.93%
The NBA MVP award has been handed out every year since 1956, and every single winner is in the Hall of Fame or on track to be inducted one day. Except one. Derrick Rose took the NBA by storm in his third NBA season, topping LeBron James and Dwight Howard to win 2011 MVP—the youngest ever winner of the award at 22 years old.
We all know how the story goes from there, with multiple knee injuries derailing a once-promising career (Rose played 49 of a possible 246 games between 2012 and 2014) before his tenure ended in Chicago in 2016.
Credit where it’s due, Rose has rejuvenated his career with stops in New York, Cleveland, Minnesota, Detroit, and back to New York. The second half of his career included a career-high 50 points with the Wolves and a Sixth Man of the Year finalist nod in 2021. Rose is no longer the high-flyer carrying a franchise, but he has established himself in a complementary role.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t spell a trip to Springfield. Even with Rose being a Chicago basketball legend (check out his high school highlights sometime) and two FIBA Gold medals, Rose would need to somehow return to MVP form for multiple years to have a shot. We just don’t see it, and have to back Adam's odds of No at -900.
- 5x All-Star, 4x NBA champion, 2x All-NBA Third Team
- Basketball-Reference HoF probability: 70.21%
How many Hall of Famers were never the best player on their team? There aren’t many, but we believe Thompson has a great chance to join this small list. While his raw numbers and accolades alone may not be worthy of consideration (he’s been very good but perhaps not elite), Thompson can lay claim to being arguably the second greatest shooter of all-time and an instrumental part of a dynasty that changed basketball.
The tangibles are still solid—five All-Star appearances and a pair of All-NBA nods—and the four titles obviously speak for themselves. But you can’t tell this chapter of the NBA’s history without mentioning Thompson, an elite second scorer, underrated defender, and a player who has as hot a hand as we’ve maybe ever seen (remember his NBA-record 37-point third quarter?)
Thompson missed two entire seasons with ACL and Achilles injuries, and then he came back the following season, averaged 20.4 points, and won a title with the Warriors. His legacy didn’t need cementing, but that certainly added another layer to it. Thompson is a Hall of Fame lock for a number of reasons.