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Best NBA Win Totals 2023-24 Predictions, Picks & Best Bets To Back Today

Mark Strotman for Bookies.com

Mark Strotman  | 38 mins

Best NBA Win Totals 2023-24 Predictions, Picks & Best Bets To Back Today

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The NBA season is quickly approaching and we’ll have NBA betting action in the next week.So, here’s our annual Best NBA Win Totals for the 2023-24 NBA season. Don’t forget to place your bets on legal and trustworthy sports betting apps. 
 
 Damian Lillard is in Milwaukee—not Miami. James Harden is unhappy but still a member of the contending Sixers. The Suns have three All-Stars in their starting lineup. Luka Doncic and the Mavs have two rookies in theirs. Victor Wembanyama is the greatest pro prospect since LeBron James and has Spurs faithful seeing visions of Duncan and Robinson. 
 
 From all those storylines and everything in between, we are providing our take on whether each 30 NBA teams will go over or under their projected win total, as set by Caesars Sportsbook.

We’ll also be flagging our seven favorite plays—both overs and unders—to keep track of where we land at season’s end. Our NBA win total predictions went 5-2 record each of the last two seasons on our best bets. The bar is set high—and we’re ready to go even higher as the 2023-24 NBA season plays out.

Best NBA Win Total Bets To Back Today

Here’s our methodology: We researched and analyzed rosters and schedules and assigned a win total to each of the 30 NBA teams without knowing their win total set by oddsmakers. We then tinkered with some numbers to get to 1230 total wins across the 30 teams (the number of games played each NBA regular season). Here’s where we landed.

TeamWin Total Best Bet
Boston Celtics Over 55.5
Milwaukee Bucks Under 54.5
Denver Nuggets Under 53.5
Phoenix Suns Over 51.5
Cleveland Cavaliers Under 50.5
Philadelphia 76ers Under 49.5
Golden State Warriors Under 47.5
Los Angeles Lakers Over 46.5
Los Angeles Clippers Over 46.5
Miami Heat Over 45.5
New York Knicks Under 45.5
Memphis Grizzlies Under 45.5
Minnesota Timberwolves Over 44.5
New Orleans Pelicans Under 44.5
Sacramento Kings Under 44.5
Oklahoma City Thunder Over 44.5
Dallas Mavericks Under 43.5
Atlanta Hawks Under 42.5
Indiana Pacers Under 38.5
Brooklyn Nets Over 37.5
Orlando Magic Over 37.5
Chicago Bulls Under 37.5
Toronto Raptors Over 36.5
Utah Jazz Over 35.5
Houston Rockets Under 31.5
Charlotte Hornets Under 31.5
San Antonio Spurs Under 29.5
Detroit Pistons Under 28.5
Portland Trail Blazers Under 28.5
Washington Wizards Under 24.5

Boston Celtics: Over 55.5 Wins

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Jayson Tatum couldn’t convince Damian Lillard to come to Boston, but the Celtics received solid consolation prizes this offseason in Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday (with Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III departing). Tatum and Jaylen Brown are capable of combining for 70 points on any given night, and this is the NBA’s best defense with the addition of Holiday. This total is the right number for a team that won 57 games a year ago, and Joe Mazulla should have them firing on all cylinders. They have star power, they’re balanced, and their bench has steadily improved in the last few seasons. We’ll take the over here at Massachusetts betting apps

Win Total Prediction: 56 wins 

Milwaukee Bucks: Under 54.5

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All eyes will be on Milwaukee as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard team up to form the league’s best 1-2 punch. But we have some concerns about Khris Middleton’s ailing knee, and they’ll be relying on some middle-of-the-road veterans in Malik Beasley and Jae Crowder and unproven youngster Marjon Beauchamp to make contributions. Brook Lopez fizzled down the stretch last year as he entered his age of 35 years. It’s also fair to assume the Giannis-Lillard pairing will require some acclimating, so we’ll pencil them in for the under here. 

Win Total Prediction: 53 wins

Denver Nuggets: Under 53.5

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We’re less concerned with a title hangover from the Nuggets and more concerned about what they lost this offseason. Bruce Brown (Indiana) and Jeff Green (Houston) were integral to the championship roster. And although they’ll be able to replace those two with contributions from Christian Braun, Justin Holiday, and others, we think it could cause a small drop in the West standings by season’s end. Denver made us look silly with last year’s prediction, and there’s a chance they do it again—but we’re tentatively leaning toward the under after the Nuggets played into June on a team with some past injury history as it is. 

Win Total Prediction: 50 wins.

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Phoenix Suns: Over 51.5

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Out with the old, in with the new. Phoenix had a busy offseason in shipping out Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton in exchange for three-time All-Star Bradley Beal and some nice bench pieces on what was arguably the worst in the league last season. Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Beal will look like the Globetrotters on offense most nights, and we’re cautiously optimistic the defense will do just enough to put them in position to win. We like the over, with the added bonus that the Suns will have homecourt advantage throughout the Western Conference Playoffs. 

Win Total Prediction: 54 wins.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Over Under 50.5 Wins

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On paper, everything’s in order for the Cavaliers. Their young core blossomed last season during a 51-win campaign, much of the core returns, and they added Max Strus in the offseason to fill the team’s 3-point void. But this team also got 68+ games from Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen a year ago—avoiding a real injury bug in the process. The bench worries us if any of that core is forced to miss extended time, so we’re leaning toward the under despite this being a roster on the rise. The East is better than you think, as you’ll see as you move down this list. The Cavs are talented, but they’ll fall just short of this goal. 

Win Total Prediction: 49 wins.

Philadelphia 76ers: Under 49.5

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This one is nearly impossible to handicap given James Harden’s insistence that he won’t suit up for the Sixers again. A trade feels inevitable, and it’ll be impossible for Philadelphia to receive equal compensation back in terms of what it will provide the Sixers this season (expect lots of picks and swaps). Still, this roster is dynamic and led by the reigning MVP, so there’s always a chance Joel Embiid does his best Greg Jennings Madden impression and puts the team on his back. It’s one we’re staying away from for now, but a bet on the under makes sense before a Harden trade goes down. 

Win Total Prediction: 57 wins.

Golden State Warriors: Under 47.5

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Father Time crept in quietly last season in Golden State, with the Warriors limping to 44 wins (and an inexplicable 11-30 road record). Jordan Poole is gone (might be addition by subtraction) but the Splash Brothers are now 35 (Curry) and 33 (Thompson), and Draymond Green has a lot of miles on him. Chris Paul could provide an injection of new life into the offense, but he looked shaky down the stretch and is now 38 years old. The rest of the roster hasn’t exactly blossomed, and they’ll need to for the Warriors to flirt with 48+ wins. We don’t think it happens, so we’re locking in the under here. 

Win Total Prediction: 45 wins.

LA Lakers: Over 46.5 Wins

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Our favorite bet on the board. Whereas the Warriors haven’t done much to build around their aging stars, the Lakers have done the opposite. Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, and Jarred Vanderbilt are all excellent complements to LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and we believe in the momentum this roster built after last year’s unlikely trip to the Western Conference Finals. LeBron-led teams tend to cost in the regular season, but last year might have been a wake-up call that the coasting can go too far. Russ is gone, the right pieces are in, and we’re intrigued by first-round picks Max Christie and Jalen Hood-Schifino. This roster is built for success. The over is the play here. 

Win Total Prediction: 51 wins.

LA Clippers: Over 46.5 Wins

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The Clippers historically have been a great underbet (we hit on it last year), but we’re going to make this prediction with the assumption that James Harden eventually finds his way to Hollywood. A core of Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George—headed by elite head coach Ty Lue—is a great jumping-off point, and the NBA’s rule that players must play in 65 games to be considered for year-end awards could force them into action more than they have in the past (a rather low bar to reach for them). The rest of the roster isn’t much to write home about, but the window is closing on this current core to put it all together and find postseason success. That begins with a strong regular season, and we think it happens. We’ll pencil them in to go over their win total this season. 

Win Total Prediction: 47 wins.

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Miami Heat: Under 48.5 Wins

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This one would have been higher up on the list had Damian Lillard landed in South Beach, but this is still an excellent team and the defending Eastern Conference champions. If there’s one thing we know about Jimmy Butler, he simply finds a way. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro aren’t half shabby as sidekicks either, and it’s not like Miami needs to contend with the elite teams in the conference to hit this over. Even in a down regular season, the Heat still scrapped out 44 games. They can improve by two here. Heat Culture and all that. Grab the over with confidence. 

Win Total Prediction: 48 wins.

New York Knicks: Under 45.5 Wins

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What a nightmare of an offseason. They overspent on Jalen Brunson, failed to land Donovan Mitchell, and gave RJ Barrett’s broken jump shot a $107 million extension. So now they’re running it back (plus Brunson) with a similar roster that won 37 games a year ago. They’re not worse with Brunson, but they’re also not that much better. If things so south early, it wouldn’t surprise us to see some late-season tanking. This is a middling franchise trending in the wrong direction. Grab the under here. 

Win Total Prediction: 44 wins.

Memphis Grizzlies: Under 45.5 Wins

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Ja Morant will miss the first 25 games of the season, but the good news is that Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane will enter the spotlight and show off their incredibly well-rounded games in his absence. Even with the Morant drama, Memphis won 56 games. They lose Dillon Brooks (a good thing) and replace him with Marcus Smart (another good thing), and the Derrick Rose signing should hold them over until the All-NBA talent returns to the lineup. Despite the drama surrounding Morant, and the uncertainty about whether he can keep his head on straight, we can’t see this talented of a roster dropping its win total by 11 games in the course of a year. We’ll take the over here. 

Win Total Prediction: 47 wins.

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Minnesota Timberwolves: Over 44.5 Wins

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We were bearish on the Timberwolves last season—and they didn’t hit their win total. This season, we’ve changed our tune. Karl Towns is healthy, Anthony Edwards is fresh off an incredible run in FIBA and looks like a budding superstar, and Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels are defensive studs who will take care of it on the other end. They also should be fully acclimated after trying the Gobert-Towns experiment to mixed results. Towns and Edwards have this franchise on the rise, and we’re now believers. Grab the over with confidence. 

Win Total Prediction: 45 wins.

New Orleans Pelicans: Under 44.5 Wins

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We simply can’t buy into this team. Zion Williamson can’t stay healthy, we’re unsure whether he can integrate and maximize Brandon Ingram’s talent, and CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas are in decline. Sharpshooter Trey Murphy will miss the first few months of the season, limiting an already average offensive unit. Until Zion proves us wrong, we have no faith in New Orleans to compete for a .500 record in the competitive West. 

Win Total Prediction: 40 wins.

Sacramento Kings: Under 44.5 Wins

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Forgive us for not loving the Cinderella Story from last season, but we’ve got good reason. The Kings were incredibly healthy in 2022-23, with their seven leading scorers appearing in 73+ games. Just about everything went right for Sacramento in its historic 48-win campaign, so we’re going to bet on a bit of regression in a difficult Western Conference. We like the pieces of Mike Brown’s team, but they’re due for setbacks. We’ll grab them under this season.

Win Total Prediction: 41 wins.

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Oklahoma City Thunder: Over 44.5 Wins

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Well, that was quite the jump from the Thunder last season. Now they’re set for a postseason run behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey, and a cast of other high-upside prospects waiting to bloom. Rest and load management are always going to be a hot topic here, but there’s plenty to like about a team that won 40 games a season ago and only got better in the offseason. This is the year the Thunder arrive on the national stage. We’re confident betting the over on this one. 

Win Total Prediction: 45 wins. 

Dallas Mavericks: Under 43.5 Wins

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We’re stunned that the Mavericks have built a roster around arguably the game’s best talent and another future Hall of Famer with two rookies and Grant Williams in the starting lineup. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are obviously talented (shocking, we know). But the rest of this roster is Lottery-bound. Maybe they make a trade for someone like Buddy Hield that helps them flirt with the Play-In Tournament, but it certainly won’t be enough to get them to 45 wins. We’re in on the under rather safely here.

Win Total Prediction: 38 wins.

Atlanta Hawks: Under 42.5 Wins

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Quiet offseasons don’t necessarily mean bad offseasons. Atlanta brings back Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Onyeka Okongwu, and Clint Capela to a team that underperformed last season and missed the playoffs. We’re expecting jumps from a few of their wings, while the guards will obviously shoulder the load on offense. John Collins is gone, which could be some addition by subtraction—but we’re not convinced a team that plays little to no defense can compete in the East. This one’s close, but we’re leaning toward the under with a lack of a third scorer and the aforementioned defense. 

Win Total Prediction: 42 wins.

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Indiana Pacers: Over 38.5 Wins

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Another one of our favorite plays this season. We love the additions of Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin, Tyrese Haliburton is going to be an All-NBA player, and we’ve got faith the team will hold onto Myles Turner and Buddy Hield as it guns for a playoff appearance. They aren’t the next Cavaliers (just yet), but they’re going to flirt with a playoff appearance—if not outright earn a top-6 seed in the East. We’re bullish, and even if our projection is a bit too high, we think they’ll run past 39 wins.

Win Total Prediction: 44 wins.

Brooklyn Nets: Over 50.5 Wins

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So it’s not exactly KD and Kyrie with Ben Simmons, but don’t sleep on the young Nets. They did incredibly well in the returns they received for those two superstars, namely Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and Spencer Dinwiddie. We’re of the belief that Simmons has a resurgence now that he’s finally (?) healthy, and that the young core continues to improve. Don’t sleep on Nicolas Claxton as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate if you’re looking for value on a player prop. This Nets team has the pieces to hit the over with ease. 

Win Total Prediction: 43 wins.

Orlando Magic: Over 37.5 Wins

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All the walk will surround No. 1 pick and Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero, but we’re equally excited about Franz Wagner after his gold medal-winning performance in the FIBA World Cup this summer. Orlando’s got serious pieces, and if one of their guards (Jalen Suggs/Cole Anthony/Anthony Black) can help their talented frontcourt that also includes Wendell Carter, Orlando will do serious damage in a weak Southeast Division. We’re optimistic about the Magic hitting them over this season. 

Win Total Prediction: 38 wins.

Chicago Bulls: Over 37.5 Wins

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The Bulls flopped after they lost Lonzo Ball to a devastating knee injury late in 2021, and their 2022 season was equally as turbulent. But they bring back the exact same core of Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic and should get better contributions from Coby White and Patrick Williams from a team that won 40 games last season. We think oddsmakers have shifted this line way too far—especially in an East that’s not as daunting as the West. The Bulls won’t tank or sell off if they start off slow, meaning they’ll be gunning for the postseason all year. This is one of our favorite bets. Confidently pick the Bulls to go over, even if they’re not serious contenders in the East. 

Win Total Prediction: 41 wins.

Toronto Raptors: Over 36.5 Wins

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Fred VanVleet is gone, but the Raptors held onto Pascal Siakam to keep their window for contending for a playoff spot in the East open. We expect big jumps from Scottie Barnes, and both Jakob Poeltl and Gary Trent fill their roles incredibly well. Gradey Dick is an intriguing rookie, and Dennis Schroder is a solid game manager. They may be destined for the Play-In Tournament, but that will be enough to get them over the hump here.

Win Total Prediction: 40 wins.

Utah Jazz: Over 35.5 Wins

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Utah surprised even the most optimistic expectations by winning 37 games last season. They bring back their core from that team—and added a solid piece in John Collins and talented first-round pick Keyonte George. Though the West is littered with talent, it’s hard to imagine this team not continuing to improve. Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler are legitimate players, and there’s enough scoring in the backcourt with Jordan Clarkson and Talen Horton-Tucker to keep them competitive. They won’t be worse than they were last year, so go ahead and grab the over with this one.

Win Total Prediction: 37 wins.

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Houston Rockets: Under 31.5 Wins

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The talent? Undeniable. The fit? Deniable. The core is solid here, including Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith, and Dillon Brooks. But new head coach Ime Udoka really has his work cut out for him, and we have no idea how inefficient this team might be—and the defense isn’t much better. The future is bright, but the future isn’t the 2023-24 season. Grab the under here. 

Win Total Prediction: 28 wins

Charlotte Hornets: Under 31.5 Wins

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This franchise is a nightmare. Their star player, LaMelo Ball, can’t stay healthy. Miles Bridges remains in heaps of trouble. Recent first-round pick Kai Jones is gone. They passed on Scoot Henderson for Brandon Miller. There’s just no telling what the bottom of the barrel looks like for this team, but we can’t in good faith touch anything but the under given all the unknowns here. Everything would have to go right for the over to hit, and everything has gone wrong so far. Feel confident grabbing the under for Charlotte this year. 

Win Total Prediction: 29 wins.

San Antonio Spurs: Under 29.5 Wins

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This one may ruffle some feathers. We of course love Victor Wembanyama, and Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, and Tre Jones are building blocks for the future. But this team won 22 games a year ago and is working more on player development than digging for wins. If they follow the Thunder’s trajectory, their breakthrough could and should happen a year or two from now. In 2024, expect some competitive games but close losses. We understand if you want to bet and cheer for the over, the smart money is on the under when it comes to Wemby and Co. 

Win Total Prediction: 25 wins.

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Detroit Pistons: Under 28.5 Wins

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The pieces are starting to come together in Detroit—but we’re not sold just yet. Cade Cunningham missed most of last season, and youngsters Jalen Duran, Ausar Thompson, and Jaden Ivey feel like legitimate pieces. But there are still a number of question marks—including how it’s all going to fit. This team was 27th in offense and 28th in defense last year. One quiet offseason isn’t going to fix all that. Asking for 29 wins feels like a lot. Go under with Detroit this season and check back in a year from now.

Win Total Prediction: 26 wins.

Portland Trail Blazers: Under 28.5 Wins

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We don’t understand this total if we’re being honest. The Blazers’ return for Damian Lillard was significant—Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams, Deandre Ayton, and picks—but we also expect Brogdon and Williams to be on the move at some point as Portland tears it down and plays for the future. They’ll give Scoot Henderson the keys to the offense, and it’ll look ugly at times—and certainly ugly enough that they won’t sniff 30 wins. This one is as close to a lock as it gets. Hammer the under with this one. 

Win Total Prediction: 17 wins.

Washington Wizards: Under 24.5 Wins

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Bradley Beal is gone and the rebuild begins with Kyle Kuzma, Daniel Gafford, and Jordan Poole. Not exactly the Big Three, to say the least. We don’t mind some of the supporting pieces like Tyus Jones, Deni Avdija, and Delon Wright, but that doesn’t translate to wins—and we expect some quiet tanking down the stretch as they aim for a top pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Let’s ride with the under once again in D.C. 

Win Total Prediction: 22 wins.

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About the Author

Mark Strotman for Bookies.com
Mark Strotman
Mark is a veteran sports betting journalist who has covered the Bulls and the NBA since 2012. His work has appeared on ESPN.com, FoxSports.com, The Chicago Tribune and Yahoo Sports. He regularly provides NBA betting picks, as well as in-depth sportsbook reviews and the latest promo codes for all the major sports gambling operators, including Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel and more.