The Celtics couldn’t swing a deal for Kevin Durant, but they still have arguably the best core in basketball. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, and Malcolm Brogdon are rightfully at the top of this list, but it’s a good rule of thumb to bet the under on totals this high. Too many factors (injury, load management, scheduling) can send this in the wrong direction. Plus, the East is incredibly top-heavy and the tougher of the two conferences for the first time in a while. Boston is elite, but the under is the right play here. The good news for Massachusetts sports betting fans? Legal wagering will be coming to your state at some point during the 2022-23 NBA season.

Win Total Prediction: 52 wins

This is a bet on Giannis Antetokounmpo’s health. In games he’s missed over the last three years, the Bucks are 17-19. When he plays, the Bucks are 136-55, a .712 win percentage (and a 58.5-win pace). Giannis hasn’t played 70 games since 2019, but we’re betting on that changing in 2023. With Khris Middleton also in a contract year, we expect a career-best campaign from the most underrated No. 2 in hoops. The Bucks will hit this over as a potential top seed in the East.

Win Total Prediction: 55 wins

We’ve heard this story before: The Clippers have a loaded roster and should be considered title contenders. And after all that, LA still hasn’t topped 50 wins since Chris Paul and Lob City were in town. We simply can’t trust Kawhi Leonard’s health, Paul George is prone to disappearing acts, and it’s impossible to know which version of John Wall we’ll get. The under is the safe play here, especially when considering load management for a team playing for May and June.

Win Total Prediction: 49 wins

Consider us concerned about how Chris Paul looked late in the postseason against the Mavericks. Phoenix’s supporting cast is still elite, but they’re paced by Paul—and it showed in their Game 7 exit (10 points and 4 assists in a 33-point home loss). Regression is coming for this group. Still, they won 64 regular-season games last season. Given their elite homecourt advantage, it’s difficult to see them being 13 games worse—even with a limited Paul. This one just barely hits the over. In reality, we’d stay away.

Win Total Prediction: 52 wins

A championship hangover from the Warriors? Maybe, maybe not. But the Warriors won 53 games last season and quietly lost a few key pieces—Gary Payton II, Otto Porter, and Nemanja Bjelica. They may get a boost from their young core—Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga, and James Wiseman—but we expect some decline after this veteran group played into June. We loved this over last season, but now we’re leaning toward the under.

Win Total Prediction: 49 wins

Yeah, we’re all-in on the Nets. Call us crazy, but Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are back, and the Ben Simmons slander has made too many people forget just how talented he is. That trio is as good as it gets (when everyone is bought in). Markieff Morris and Royce O’Neale bring some stability to get the backend of the roster that was really lacking a season ago (apologies to LaMarcus Aldridge and Andre Drummond). We think the stars align and everyone keeps their head screwed on tightly. Brooklyn paces the rest of the league during the regular season and the over hits with ease.

Win Total Prediction: 56 wins

Simply put, we’re bullish on the Sixers. Joel Embiid, James Harden, and a perfect complement of role players (we love the P.J. Tucker and De’Anthony Melton additions) make this one of the best top-to-bottom rosters in the NBA. They won 51 games last season (the total they need to hit here), including 19-9 after the Harden trade (a 55.5-win pace). With a better supporting cast this time around, Philadelphia will contend for a top spot in the East and hit this over with room to spare.

Win Total Prediction: 54 wins

On the surface, it makes sense that the Nuggets—who won 47 and 48 games the last two seasons—would be better with the return of Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray. But that’s asking a lot from an injury-prone MPJ and an unknown in Murray. We don’t love the supporting cast around reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, which puts a major burden on him to be elite again. That’s tough on a nightly basis for three straight seasons. Maybe our projection is too low, but we are trending toward the under nonetheless.

Win Total Prediction: 45 wins

Ja Morant and the Grizzlies were arguably the NBA’s best story in 2021. Morant catapulted to All-NBA status and the Grizz won a franchise-best 56 games. Memphis won’t be sneaking up on anyone in 2022, but this is a team that brings back its entire core and proved last season it could win without Morant (20-5 in 2021). They much prefer having their elite point guard in the lineup, but the point is there are multiple avenues to 49+ wins. They’ll get there and hit the over with plenty of games left on the schedule.

Win Total Prediction: 51 wins

The bad news? It wasn’t a banner offseason for the Mavericks, who lost Jalen Brunson and didn’t really replace him with anyone of note. Christian Wood will help in the frontcourt, but there’s not much to speak of in the backcourt….aside from the good news, which is Luka Doncic becoming an all-time great before our very eyes. When Doncic is in the lineup, the Mavs are a 49+ win team. It’s as simple as that. There’s no other analysis needed. They won 52 games a year ago and they’ll be near that number again. The over is the play here.

Win Total Prediction: 52 wins

This one is tough. Jimmy Butler has played 60+ games once since 2018—and yet the Heat found a way to win 53 games last season to pace the Eastern Conference. Bam Adebayo is a budding star and Tyler Herro became the NBA’s best Sixth Man, but there are major question marks on this roster: Kyle Lowry’s and Victor Oladipo’s age, Duncan Robinson’s ability to do anything, and how they’ll replace PJ Tucker’s 3-and-D skillset. We could see Heat Culture squeeze out 50+ wins again, or we could see this go south in a hurry. We have a lean toward the under, but in reality we’re staying away.

Win Total Prediction: 48 wins

Consider us doubters that the Wolves’ two-center attack of Karl Towns and Rudy Gobert will have long-term success. There’s so much talent beyond those two—Anthony Edwards is destined for an All-Star nod, D’Angelo Russell is rock-solid, and they helped their bench by adding Austin Rivers and Kyle Anderson—but we have trouble seeing the Twin Towers work late in games. Some close-game losses will send this one under. It’s not our favorite play on the board, but we’re leaning toward it as non-believers.

Win Total Prediction: 46 wins

This is one of our favorite plays on the board. Cleveland won 44 games a season ago despite dealing with significant injuries down the stretch. Now they add Donovan Mitchell to a core that includes budding stars in Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. We love what the Cavs are going to put out on a nightly basis. While their depth is a slight concern, guys like Kevin Love and Caris LeVert will pick up the scoring slack. This team flirts with 50 wins. Grab the over here.

Win Total Prediction: 48 wins

The big winners of the offseason in the East (OK, the Nets indirectly did pretty well) will trot out a dynamic backcourt of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. Those two rising stars will take the load off one another, making them both more efficient playing with a supporting cast that complements their games to perfection. Atlanta won 43 games a season ago, and a three-win increase is well within play as long as Young and Murray mesh well and stay healthy. We’ll take those odds and grab the over here.

Win Total Prediction: 48 wins

As long as Russell Westbrook is on this roster, there’s no chance the Lakers will hit 46 wins. It’s a trickle effect: Westbrook is woefully inefficient, but he’s also handicapping the Lakers’ ability to add depth (Myles Turner and Buddy Hield sound nice) to what is one of the worst second units in the league. It’s asking a lot for LeBron James and Anthony Davis to play at a high level for 75+ games, which is the only way the Lakers are sniffing this over. We don’t see it happening, making the under a safe play.

Win Total Prediction: 41 wins

The Raptors took everyone by surprise and won 48 games last season, and they’ll bring back their top seven scorers from last season. So why are we down on them? The East is a juggernaut, and teams like the Hawks and Cavaliers jumped them in terms of talent during the offseason. We think they’re more of a play-in team in the East in the 7-8 range, which would put them well below 46 wins. Because of the talent in their conference, the Raptors will go under this season.

Win Total Prediction: 43 wins

Is Zion Williamson healthy? That’s really the only question you need to ask about whether this prop hits or not. The blue-chip prospect has played 85 games in three seasons but reportedly will begin his fourth NBA season healthy. A core of Zion, Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Jonas Valanciunas is capable of a top-4 seed in the West, but they’re a middle-of-the-pack group if Williamson’s foot continues to give him trouble. We want Zion to be healthy, so we’re willing it into existence by betting the over in New Orleans.

Win Total Prediction: 45 wins

The Bulls surprised many by winning 46 games a season ago, but there are some question marks surrounding the near-term future. What is Lonzo Ball’s health? Can Pat Williams stay healthy and contribute? Can DeMar DeRozan replicate his All-NBA Second Team performance from a year ago? Is Nikola Vucevic a contributor to a winning team or simply an empty numbers guy? Who contributes off the bench aside from Alex Caruso? There are simply too many questions here—and the East got a lot better around them—for us to choose anything but the under.

Win Total Prediction: 41 wins

What exactly is the Blazers’ plan? To make Damian Lillard a billionaire and never contend? That’s what it feels like. A core of Lillard, Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, and Jusuf Nurkic is…not good. And if anyone gets injured, we’ll cash this under by January. We don’t have a whole lot else to say other than Portland is stuck in the middle. They won 27 games a season ago. We’re not betting on them to go +13 in 2022-23, even with a healthy Lillard back.

Win Total Prediction: 35 wins

What a nightmare of an offseason. They overspent on Jalen Brunson, failed to land Donovan Mitchell, and gave RJ Barrett’s broken jump shot a $107 million extension. So now they’re running it back (plus Brunson) with a similar roster that won 37 games a year ago. They’re not worse with Brunson, but they’re also not that much better. If things so south early, it wouldn’t surprise us to see some late-season tanking. This is a middling franchise trending in the wrong direction. Grab the under here.

Win Total Prediction: 35 wins

We will safely assume Miles Bridges is not part of the Hornets’ future, meaning Charlotte needs to replace 20.2 points and 35.5 minutes on the wing. But we’re bullish on LaMelo Ball and his ability to elevate his teammates. The Hornets won’t make a Grizzlies-like jump, but Ball can have a Ja Morant-like effect on his supporting cast. Maybe they don’t replicate their 43 wins from a season ago, but they won’t fall by seven games. Ball, in an All-NBA campaign, carries this one over.

Win Total Prediction: 38 wins

The worst place to be in the NBA is in the middle, and that’s the definition of the Wizards. They have a solid veteran core in Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Will Barton, and Kyle Kuzma. But there’s zero depth to speak of, and the point will be run by career back-ups Monte Morris and Delon Wright. We expect a major sell-off at the deadline that turns into a second-half tank. The under is always going to be safe in D.C. For Wizards fans in the Old Line State, Maryland online sports betting will be going live at some point during the 2022-23 NBA season.

Win Total Prediction: 33 wins

Will Sacramento end the longest playoff drought in the NBA? We believe they’ll get close on the backs of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. A young supporting cast includes Davion Mitchell and rookie Keegan Murray (an intriguing Rookie of the Year betting option), and we love their offseason pick-ups in Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk. It feels blasphemous betting on the Kings, a team that has reached 34+ wins just one time in the last 14 seasons, but trust us on this one. The tide turns in 2023 and the over hits.

Win Total Prediction: 39 wins

We missed the Pistons’ over by a single win last season. That won’t happen again. This is arguably our favorite total on the board. Cade Cunningham has star potential written all over him, and there’s quietly a nice little core blooming around him with players like Saddiq Bey, Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart, Jalen Duren, and Isaiah Livers. Don’t be surprised when Detroit flirts with a play-in spot in the East, much like Cleveland did last season. We get our over with room to spare this season.

Win Total Prediction: 36 wins

Paolo Banchero made serious noise in the Las Vegas Summer League, and the top pick will enter the year as Orlando’s No. 1 option. The only problem? They don’t have a whole lot around him. Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, and Franz Wagner are nice young pieces, but they don’t exactly have us excited about the Magic’s 2023 outlook. This team will struggle yet again unless Banchero has an All NBA-type impact in Year 1. In a tough Eastern Conference, we’re leaning under in Orlando.

Win Total Prediction: 24 wins

Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are gone, and other veterans are likely to follow. But are we crazy for not hating this young core of Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, Talen Horton-Tucker, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, and rookies Ochai Agbaji and Walker Kessler? They won’t flirt with the postseason, of course, but we think Utah could surprise as far as its win total goes. Cautiously grab the over here.

Win Total Prediction: 27 wins

The East is incredibly top-heavy, and the Central Division could be one of the deepest in basketball. That all amounts to a rough season ahead for the Pacers, which likely will move Myles Turner and Buddy Hield at some point. A much better Indiana roster won 25 games last season. A difficult schedule plus the potential for tanking in March and April means this one coasts to the under. We love Ty Haliburton, but not even he can save this roster in ’23.

Win Total Prediction: 21 wins

The Oklahoma City Thunder actually topped their win total last season with a 24-58 record, and they appeared headed in the right direction after selecting Chet Holmgren with the second overall pick in June. But Holmgren’s season-ending leg injury is going to set OKC’s timeline back a full season. We expect plenty of faux injuries, “rest” for kids in their early 20s, and blatant benchings as GM Sam Presti makes a run at uber-prospect Victor Wembanyama. The talent pool in OKC is improving, but this is a team that will be lucky to win 20 games. Grab the under here.

Win Total Prediction: 20 wins

Jalen Green came on strong late in his rookie season, and third overall pick Jabari Smith should make an instant contribution. Don’t sleep on youngsters Alperen Sengun, Kevin Porter Jr., and rookie Tari Eason, either. Houston is still a few years away from making any real noise, but they have the talent to fly by this total. They’re one of our favorite over bets this season. Don’t say we didn’t tell you so.

Win Total Prediction: 28 wins

Dejounte Murray was the first domino to fall, and we expect the Spurs to continue tanking their way toward a shot at drafting blue-chip prospect Victor Wembanyama. San Antonio was 5-14 without Murray the last two seasons, a 21.5-win pace. We fully expect Gregg Popovich and the Spurs to go full tank over the last few months of the season, with the under hitting easily. They tanked their way to Tim Duncan 25 years ago. They’ll find out if it’ll work again in 2022.

Win Total Prediction: 19 wins