Buy On Denver Nuggets Odds To Win The NBA Championship
The Denver Nuggets are the No. 3 team in the Western Conference, but you wouldn’t know it by the NBA futures odds out there.
At +1400, the Nuggets are far behind the Lakers and Clippers on the NBA Western Conference odds. They’re not even the third team on the board — the Houston Rockets are way ahead of them as well (+750), while the Mavericks and Jazz are nearly even. In the NBA championship odds, they’re behind the Philadelphia 76ers, the No. 6 seed in the East.
Does that mean we can find considerable value on the Nuggets or do the oddsmakers have them right where they should be? Here is a breakdown of Denver’s chances and whether to buy or sell on the Nuggets.
Success vs. The Best
The Western Conference is loaded with contenders, with six or seven teams (or more) making a viable claim why it should be considered in the mix.
The Nuggets are one of those teams, and they’ve handled themselves against the other top teams of the West. Denver is .500 or better against the Clippers, Jazz, Thunder and Rockets, and 1-2 vs. the Lakers, with the last loss in overtime.
If seeds play out, the No. 3 Nuggets would face the No. 6 Rockets in an epic first-round matchup. They each won two games against each other this season.
They Need To Show Up
One somewhat-odd anomaly on Nuggets games is when they lose, they lose big. Denver is 7-6 vs. the other elite Western teams. Discounting the overtime loss to the Lakers, the other five losses were by an average of 18 points per game.
The lack of consistency is a concern. When the Nuggets show up, they can beat anyone. When they don’t, it can get ugly.
Nikola Jokic is a tough-to-defend star, a center with legit three-point range and elite passing skills for a big man. He averages 20.4 points, 10.1 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.7 blocks per game — each of those lead the team. He’s played every game for Denver.
Jamal Murray and Will Barton have each missed time, but they are needed if the Nuggets are to survive and advance in the West. Murray averages 18.8 ppg and 4.8 apg, second behind Jokic in both. In the nine games he’s missed against teams currently in Orlando, the Nuggets were a mediocre 5-4.
Barton, the No. 3 scorer (15.1), top 3-point shooter, No. 2 rebounder (6.3) and No. 3 in assists (3.7), has missed eight games. The team is 5-3 vs. bubble teams, though two of those wins were in overtime.
When all three take the court, the Nuggets are 33-15 — a .688 win percentage that ranks above the Clippers.
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Buy Or Sell Nuggets?
The Nuggets are a stellar 37-13 straight-up when favored and a half-decent 8-10 when the underdogs. Picking a side has proven challenging on Denver games.
Against the spread, Denver is a so-so 31-33-4, including 23-24-3 as the favorite and 8-9-1 as the underdog. On a night-by-night basis, oddsmakers appear to have the Nuggets figured out. Sell on riding the Nuggets.
Western Conference +1400 (BetMGM)
Denver has proven it can hang with the top teams in the West. If the Nuggets end up staying at No. 3, a first-round matchup with either the Thunder or Rockets is likely. Either way it’s a mixed bag, going 1-1 vs. OKC and 2-2 vs. Houston.
A rise to the No. 2 seed means a showdown with the No. 7 Mavericks. Luka Doncic and Co. beat Denver in two of three meetings, though one was in OT and Denver was without Barton.
Denver is worthy to be included in the mix. But there is reason to be uncertain on their prospects. They could win out, they could lose in the first round. Sell on these low odds at BetMGM.
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NBA Title +3000 (DraftKings)
While we’re selling on Western Conference futures, the Nuggets’ NBA title odds are more than double.
It’s possible Denver bows out early. But it’s also possible they get hot and stay healthy, and they’ve proven the ability to beat any team on the board. Remember, most of Denver’s losses against top teams have been by wide margin. When the Nuggets are on their game, they win.
We saw it in two matchups with the Milwaukee Bucks, each double-digit wins (the Bucks didn’t play any of their top guys in one of those games). Jokic didn’t lead the team in scoring in either game; Barton and Murray did.
In games decided by eight points or less against the top West teams, the Nuggets are 0-2 vs. the Lakers but 6-0 against the rest. The beat the Lakers by 24 in the other regular-season meeting. They have what it takes to run the table. Buy on the high odds to win it all at DraftKings.
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About the Author
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He has consistently produced profitable seasons in NFL and college football and established himself as an elite MLB expert in 2018, hitting 61 percent of his money line picks for a profit of $4,062 to $100 players, ending the season on a 22-4 run including 100 percent on World Series games. Previously the award-winning sports editor of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, Adam spent nearly 20 years covering the NFL, MLB and college football. Now he shares the insight he gained at Bookies.com through well-reasoned picks and thought-provoking articles and on Twitter at @_Adam_Thompson_.