One year removed from a surprising first-round playoff defeat, the Denver Nuggets have higher hopes this time around as they enter the 2023 NBA Playoffs as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. 

It’s the first time the Nuggets have entered the playoffs as the top seed in the West. MVP contender Nikola Jokic has only advanced past the Western Conference semifinals one time in eight seasons. Oddsmakers on sports betting apps don’t seem convinced this is the year it happens. Despite owning home-court advantage, Denver is behind both Phoenix and Golden State in conference NBA futures markets. 

The Timberwolves choked away a possible No. 7 seed when they blew a huge fourth-quarter lead against the Lakers, but rebounded to blow out the Thunder on Friday to secure the No. 8 seed. The teams finished 2-2 in their regular season series. 

Ahead of Game 1, Bookies.com breaks down the series and makes our NBA picks to back on betting apps.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 1 Odds

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Betting Tips

Home Cookin’: Denver’s 34-7 home record was second-best in the NBA, behind only the 35-6 Grizzlies. The Nuggets had a losing record on the road, but they can advance to the NBA Finals without having to win one on the road. They’ve also been a solid team to back at home, covering in 62.5% of all home games. The Under has hit in 57.5% of games at Ball Arena. 

Doing It All: Jokic is a beast regardless of location, but at home his overall numbers really pop. While his scoring is very steady – 24.8 ppg at home, 24.2 ppg on the road – he averages 13.1 rebounds and 11.1 assists in Denver and 10.6/8.5 away from it. Something to keep in mind for points-rebounds-assists totals. 

Blowout Central: While each team won two games against each other, only one of them was particularly close. Minnesota won both its home games, by 13 and by 30. Denver edged out a four-point win in its first one at home, then won by 34 the second time around. Towns didn’t play in any of the games. 

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Picks

The injury-riddled Wolves are only 5-3 with their current starting lineup, and were 15-13 when Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert played together. But they present matchup issues, including when it comes to the stars. The Nuggets are a modest 13-9 in games featuring Jokic and Towns, with KAT (24.1 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 3.7 apg) at worst negating the production of Jokic (18.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 6.0 apg). 

Gobert actually has a winning record vs. Jokic and has held him to way under his usual rebounding totals, and Towns has out-dueled Aaron Gordon in past matchups. 

In other words, this can’t be a Nuggets team in cruise control despite the 1 vs. 8 matchup. Minnesota has been painfully inconsistent this season, and Denver should be able to take advantage and get through to the second round. But there’s a chance for a massive upset here on NBA betting sites. We can back both teams to win in six games at great prices, getting Nuggets In 6 (+370) and Timberwolves In 6 (+950). 

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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Schedule

• Game 1: Minnesota at Denver, Sun., April 16, 10.30 p.m. ET (TNT)
• Game 2: Minnesota at Denver, Wed., April 19, 10 p.m. ET (TNT)
• Game 3: Denver at Minnesota, Fri., April 21, 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
• Game 4: Denver at Minnesota, Sun., April 23, 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT)
• *Game 5: Minnesota at Denver, Tues., April 25, TBD
• *Game 6: Denver at Minnesota, Thurs., April 27, TBD
• *Game 7: Minnesota at Denver, Sat., April 29, TBD

*if necessar