The title favorites, according to NBA futures odds, against arguably the hottest player in basketball. What could be better than that? It’s exactly what NBA fans - and fans of NBA betting - will get when the Phoenix Suns square off against Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference semifinals.

The Suns were given a scare when Devin Booker suffered a hamstring injury and the Pelicans came to play—but an epic performance from Chris Paul in Game 6 helped Phoenix in advance (and Booker returned). 

Suns-Mavericks Series Outcome Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4/29.

The Mavericks, meanwhile, got incredible performances from Jalen Brunson before Doncic returned in Game 4. And what did the first-team All-NBAer do in three games? 29.0 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists. Yeah, this is going to be good.

There’s also the intriguing storyline of Doncic vs. the Suns, who passed on the Slovenian star in the 2018 NBA Draft to take Deandre Ayton. Of course everything worked out for Phoenix, which made the NBA Finals last season and won 64 regular-season games in 2022. But you can bet Doncic remembers being overlooked—and he holds grudges well ... just ask the LA Clippers.

Booker’s health is the obvious major storyline—he returned in Game 6 and had 13 points in 32 minutes—while we’ll get to see if Doncic can pull off an improbable upset as the best player on the floor. The Suns are heavy favorites here, but Doncic is capable of a 2021 Giannis-like run.

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Suns vs Mavericks Betting Tips

Devin Booker’s health: We alluded to it earlier, but it truly could be the differentiator in the series. The Suns were able to manage against the ninth-seeded Pelicans, but having to score against a Mavs defense that continues to impress won’t be the same challenge.

It’s promising that Booker was able to log 32 minutes in Game 6—and he was lethal down the stretch—but Phoenix will need to monitor his health if this series goes deep.

Will "Unders" reign supreme? In terms of NBA over under bets, no team played slower and hit more unders this season than the Mavericks. They are dead last in pace and 53-33-2 hitting the under (60.7%). And while the Suns are an up-tempo bunch, two of the three matchups between these two teams went under by 9 and 6.5 points. 

Not exactly a major sample size, but games tend to slow down later in the postseason. We think Phoenix pulls back some while Dallas continues its pace. Generally speaking, we like the unders here.

Don’t overlook Doncic and Brunson: The Mavs all of a sudden have a two-headed monster in the backcourt. In addition to Doncic’s superstar prowess, Jalen Brunson was incredible in Dallas’ opening-round series win over the Jazz. 

He averaged 27.8 points, including 23, 24, and 24 after Doncic returned. The Suns gave up plenty of offense to the Pelicans, meaning Doncic and Brunson could feast … and make this thing a real series. Don’t take the Mavericks lightly.

Mavericks vs. Suns Betting Picks

It’s hard to describe just how good the Suns were in the regular season. They had the NBA’s best home and road record, they’re battle-tested after last year’s postseason run, and they’ve got stars on the ball (Chris Paul), on the wing (Devin Booker), and inside (Deandre Ayton). In a year with a handful of title contenders, there’s a reason the Suns top the list. 

We loved seeing Booker return in Game 6 to play 32 minutes, suggesting he is all the way healthy. Chris Paul is playing at an incredible level, and the supporting cast is as steady as it comes in the league.

Luka Doncic is Luka Doncic. He’s capable of taking over a game every time he steps on the floor. Brunson has provided the No. 2 punch that all great teams need, and Dallas’ supporting cast also showed up in the victory over the Jazz. They won 52 games and are led by a Hall of Famer. That’s nothing to scoff at.

Ultimately, we think this one goes the distance. So do oddsmakers given the total games odds. The Suns will take over in Game 7 home, but the combination of Doncic/Brunson will put up an epic fight over the course of this series. This is going to be fun.

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Suns vs. Mavericks Schedule

All Times Eastern

Game 1: May 2, Dallas at Phoenix 10 pm., TNT

Game 2: May 4, Dallas at Phoenix, 10 pm, TNT

Game 3: May 6, Phoenix at Dallas, 9:30 pm., TBD

Game 4: May 8, Phoenix at Dallas, TBD, TBD

Game 5: May 10, Dallas at Phoenix* TBD, TBD

Game 6: May 12, Phoenix at Dallas,* TBD,  ESPN

Game 7: May 15, Dallas at Phoenix,*TBD, TBD

*if necessary