By Mark Strotman | | 19 mins
NBA Draft Odds, Best Prop Bets & Complete Betting Guide
The NBA Draft will take place on Thursday night, with the Detroit Pistons holding the No. 1 overall pick. They’re fully expected to select Oklahoma State’s Cade Cunningham, but there’s plenty of intrigue beyond that selection.
2021 NBA Draft Odds To Back
|NBA Draft Bet||Odds||Sportsbook|
|Moses Moody, Under 11.5||-140||DraftKings|
|Joshua Primo, Under 30.5||-155||PointsBet|
|Luka Garza, Under 55.5||+110||DraftKings|
|Top 3 Exact Order: Cunningham, Green, Mobley||-120||DraftKings|
|Chris Duarte, Under 17.5||-154||PointsBet|
|Josh Giddey, Under 11.5||-120||DraftKings|
|Franz Wagner, Under 9.5||-105||BetMGM|
NBA odds current as of publication and subject to change
Moses Moody under 11.5
Odds: -140 at DraftKings
If there’s a perfect fit for a player who should see his stock rise in the days leading up to the draft, it’s Moody. Similar to what we saw with Florida State’s Patrick Williams when he rose all the way up to No. 4 in 2020, Moody has a long frame (a 7-foot wingspan), averaged 16.8 points as a freshman, and fits the mold of a 3-and-D wing that every team covets. He’s 19 years old and won’t turn 20 until the end of next season – and age always matters in the draft process.
It’s not unrealistic to think that Moody could go as early as seventh to the Golden State Warriors. The Magic at No. 8 need everything, the Kings at No. 9 could be looking for an eventual Buddy Hield replacement, and both the Pelicans (10) and Hornets (11) could look to shore up their wings.
This just feels like too good of a value on the NBA futures market to pass up for someone whose stock continues to rise – and should continue to rise up until draft night.
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Joshua Primo under 30.5
Odds: -155 at PointsBet
Alabama basketball will never have the kind of draft success enjoyed by its football counterpart, but they sure are churning out talent on the hardwood in Tuscaloosa. Collin Sexton went 8th overall in the 2018 NBA Draft to the Cavaliers, and Kira Lewis Jr. followed in 2020 by going 13th to the Pelicans. The next guard to make his way to the Association after a successful run with the Crimson Tide is Joshua Primo.
Whereas Sexton and Lewis were lead guards, Primo and his 6-foot-6 frame will play on the wing at the next level. He was terrific at last month’s NBA Draft Combine, shot 38% from beyond the arc as a freshman, and – perhaps most important – is one of the youngest players in the draft. The former top-100 recruit is oozing with potential, and some team will take a flier on him late in Round 1.
These odds have been moving up recently – this prop was at +110 last week – and for good reason. The Rockets (24th pick), Nuggets (26), Nets (27), and Jazz (30) all make sense as a potential landing spot for Primo.
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Luka Garza under 55.5
Odds: +110 at DraftKings
The history of seniors who have won the Naismith College Basketball Player of the Year award making it in the NBA isn’t great. The most recent winners over the last 15 years have been Frank Mason III, Hield, Frank Kaminsky, Doug McDermott, Jimmer Fredette, and J.J. Redick. That’s not exactly a promising list of players for teams looking to unearth franchise-changing potential in the draft. But for this prop, consider that all but Mason – who was the 34th overall pick in 2017 – were not only first-round picks, but also Lottery selections.
Iowa’s Luka Garza won’t be a Lottery pick, and it’s highly unlikely he hears his name called in the first round. He dominated for the Hawkeyes this past season – 24.1 points and 8.7 rebounds – but he’s slow-footed, doesn’t offer much defensively and does not fit the trend of what the new-school NBA big man looks like.
But the numbers don’t lie. Garza is incredibly skilled as a scorer – he shot 55% as a senior – and he actually has some touch on his jump shot (he made 44% of his 100 3-point attempts) so there’s reason to believe he’ll score at the next level.
What’s more, you can’t teach his size – 6 feet 11, 265 pounds. Our bet is that one team will take a gamble on a guy who’s ready to contribute immediately in a reserve role. He’ll hear his name called on draft night.
Top 3 exact order: 1. Cunningham, 2. Green, 3. Mobley
Odds: -120 at DraftKings
We know Cunningham is going to be the top pick on Thursday night. That’s a lock. The draft begins at No. 2 with the Rockets, who will be deciding between Jalen Green and Evan Mobley or trade with another team, which will then choose between the two prospects.
There’s a clear tier drop after those three, so choosing the exact order and getting these odds feels like a better choice than betting on Green to go second (-200 at most sportsbooks) or Mobley to go third (-165 at most places). If Green goes second, Mobley is a lock to go third. So, we’re effectively betting on Green to go second, while getting better odds by tacking on Mobley at three.
Chris Duarte under 17.5
Odds: -154 at PointsBet
Normally, an Under prop would be considered crazy on a 24-year-old, but there’s something particular about this year’s draft order: Good teams have picks in the teens. The Pelicans (10th pick) are in win-now mode with Zion Williamson; the Hornets (11) want to capitalize on LaMelo Ball’s Rookie of the Year campaign and Gordon Hayward’s big contract; the Warriors (14) could compete for a title next season; the Wizards (15) and Grizzlies (17) both just made the postseason.
All of this is to say that a 24-year-old like Oregon’s Chris Duarte could step into a role for a playoff contender and immediately contribute. He shot 42.4% from beyond the arc on 144 attempts as a senior for the Ducks, and is an above-average defender. Someone in the teens will find a spot for him.
Josh Giddey under 11.5
Odds: -120 at DraftKings
NBA scouts and general managers are always on the lookout for unique skill sets and talent. That’s exactly what 6-foot-9 guard Josh Giddey brings to the table. The Australian’s passing acumen is good enough for him to play as a lead guard and playmaker in any offense.
He was versatile in that regard while averaging 7.1 rebounds this past season for the Adelaide 36ers of the National Basketball League. He’s not going to challenge Jrue Holiday for a spot on the All-NBA Defensive Team and there are questions around his shot – he made just 31% of his triples – but the uniqueness and versatility of his game stands out.
He’s also still 18 years old, making him one of the youngest players in the class. We think he goes off the board to the Magic at No. 8, the Pelicans at 10, or the Hornets at 11.
Franz Wagner under 9.5
Odds: -105 at BetMGM
While it’s unlikely that Wagner hears his name called in the first seven picks, there’s plenty to love about his potential fit in Orlando (8th pick) or Sacramento (9th pick). As far as the Magic are concerned, they could swing for the fences with the fifth pick – think Jonathan Kuminga or Scottie Barnes – and then opt for a safer play with Wagner as their second Lottery selection.
The Kings have invested heavily in their backcourt with De’Aaron Fox and Ty Haliburton, and might be looking for a do-over on the Marvin Bagley selection from 2018. They’d get it in Wagner, who would give Sacramento a big to stretch the floor and add some much-needed defense to a group that ranked last in the NBA a season ago. We think the Kings at 9th overall is Wagner’s floor, making this a good prop to grab on your betting app.
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2021 NBA Draft Order
- 1. Detroit Pistons
- 2. Houston Rockets
- 3. Cleveland Cavaliers
- 4. Toronto Raptors
- 5. Orlando Magic
- 6. Oklahoma City Thunder
- 7. Golden State Warriors (from MIN)
- 8. Orlando Magic (from CHI)
- 9. Sacramento Kings
- 10. New Orleans Pelicans
- 11. Charlotte Hornets
- 12. San Antonio Spurs
- 13. Indiana Pacers
- 14. Golden State Warriors
- 15. Washington Wizards
- 16. Oklahoma City Thunder (from BOS)
- 17. Memphis Grizzlies
- 18. Oklahoma City Thunder (from MIA via Clippers, 76ers & Suns)
- 19. New York Knicks
- 20. Atlanta Hawks
- 21. New York Knicks (from DAL)
- 22. Los Angeles Lakers
- 23. Houston Rockets (from POR)
- 24. Houston Rockets (from MIL)
- 25. LA Clippers
- 26. Denver Nuggets
- 27. Brooklyn Nets
- 28. Philadelphia 76ers
- 29. Phoenix Suns
- 30. Utah Jazz
- 31. Milwaukee Bucks (from HOU)
- 32. New York Knicks (from DET via Clippers, 76ers)
- 33. Orlando Magic
- 34. Oklahoma City Thunder
- 35. New Orleans Pelicans (from CLE via ATL)
- 36. Oklahoma City Thunder (from MIN via GSW)
- 37. Detroit Pistons (from TOR via BKN)
- 38. Chicago Bulls (from NOP)
- 39. Sacramento Kings
- 40. New Orleans Pelicans (from CHI)
- 41. San Antonio Spurs
- 42. Detroit Pistons (from CHA via NYK)
- 43. New Orleans Pelicans (from WAS via MIL, CLE & UTA)
- 44. Brooklyn Nets (from IND)
- 45. Boston Celtics
- 46. Toronto Raptors (from MEM via SAC)
- 47. Toronto Raptors (from GSW via UTA & NOP)
- 48. Atlanta Hawks (from MIA via SAC & POR)
- 49. Brooklyn Nets (from ATL)
- 50. Philadelphia 76ers (from NYK)
- 51. Memphis Grizzlies (from POR via DAL, DET & CLE)
- 52. Detroit Pistons (from LAL via SAC, HOU & DET)
- 53. New Orleans Pelicans (from DAL)
- 54. Indiana Pacers (from MIL via HOU & CLE)
- 55. Oklahoma City Thunder (from DEN via GSW & PHI)
- 56. Charlotte Hornets (via LAC)
- 57. Charlotte Hornets (from BKN)
- 58. New York Knicks (from PHI)
- 59. Brooklyn Nets (from PHO)
- 60. Indiana Pacers (from UTA)