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Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

By Adam Thompson | | 4 mins

NBA Finals Celtics vs Warriors Game 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions

NBA Finals Celtics vs Warriors Game 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions

The Golden State Warriors can secure their fourth NBA championship of the Steph Curry era, and their first since 2018, when they play at the Boston Celtics in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. Tipoff is Thursday at 9 p.m. ET. 

The Warriors regained home-court advantage and took a 3-2 lead in the best-of-7 series with consecutive victories, including a 10-point win in Boston in Game 4. Game 7, if necessary, will be at Golden State on Sunday night. 

NBA betting sites have Boston as a four-point home favorite in the latest NBA odds, with the Over/Under at 210.5 points. On the moneyline, most online betting sites have the Celtics at -170 to win, the Warriors at +150. 

Let's break down Game 6 and offer our best bets on the showdown at TD Garden. 

NBA Finals Game 6 Celtics vs Warriors Odds

NBA Finals Celtics vs Warriors Game 6 Betting Tips

Spice-free Curry

Curry missed all nine 3-point attempts in Game 5 and scored just 16 points on 7-of-22 shooting. Golden State still won. The previous four games of the series, Curry hit between 5-7 3’s in each and averaged 34.3 ppg. 

The o-fer on 3’s snapped a 233-game streak of at least one make from the future Hall of Famer. He only had 16 games with two or fewer 3-pointers, but five of them came in back-to-back efforts. What does that mean? It means to be wary on Curry bouncing back right away with his usual offensive outburst. 

Wiggins To The Rescue

Andrew Wiggins averaged 17.2 points and 4.5 rebounds in the regular season. But with Curry and Klay Thompson coming and going in terms of production, it’s been Wiggins who has stepped up. 

His averages for this series are 18.4 points and 9.4 rebounds. In the last two games, it’s 21.5 ppg and 14.5 rpg. Golden State is 14-2 on the season when Wiggins scores 22 points, and 7-0 when he hits double-digit rebounds. Boston was a bottom-10 defensive team against small forwards, and Wiggins is taking advantage. 

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Defensive Mindset

Defense wins championships? It certainly appears so. These teams both ranked in the top three in total defense, but even oddsmakers on betting sites weren’t predicting this level of shutdown play. The Under has crushed in three of the last four games, by 13, 9.5 and 18.5 points. The lone Over hit by just two points. 

There are a lot of reasons to expect another Under. The total of 210.5 points is the lowest in that span but still falls well above the average score of 203.3. The Under is 7-3 in Boston’s last 10 when favored and 5-2 in Golden State’s last seven as the underdog. 

One bizarre trend that flips the script: Playing on Thursdays. The Over is a combined 15-1-1 on betting apps in the last 17 Thursday games involving either of these teams. 


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NBA Finals Celtics vs Warriors Game 6 Prediction

It had to be discouraging for Boston to limit Curry only to have its bench be outscored 31-10 in a Game 5 loss. But Boston has to feel good about coming home here. 

Here’s another reason to have confidence in the Celtics. Boston has dropped two straight, but prior to the Game 5 meltdown the team was 11-0 coming off a loss with Jayson Tatum in the lineup, with an average margin of victory of 15.7 ppg. 

Every game in these NBA Finals has been decided by double figures. It’s Boston’s turn to prove its mettle and send the series to Game 7. For your NBA picks on Thursday, take the Celtics and lay the points

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com.