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NBA Expansion City Odds: Seattle & Vegas Most Likely Options

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 

NBA Expansion City Odds: Seattle & Vegas Most Likely Options

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NBA commissioner Adam Silver has worked out its Collective Bargaining Agreement with players. It has hammered out a new Media Rights deal. Those were the two items of priority for the league before looking outward toward expansion. 

The 30-team NBA has become a global force, and going to 32 teams – the same number of franchises in the NFL – is inevitable. 

Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson has updated his hypothetical NBA odds as to which cities could get one of two expansion teams, whenever that day comes. 

Next NBA Expansion City Odds

City Odds Implied Probability
Las Vegas +110 47.6%
Seattle +150 40.0%
Mexico City +750 11.8%
Louisville +1000 9.1%
Nashville +1250 7.4%
Kansas City +1400 6.7%
London +1500 6.3%
The Field +1000 9.1%

Odds are projected and do not reflect any odds that may be available at legal betting apps

*Note: Odds reflect that more than one team is likely to join at the same time

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Two cities stand out as clear favorites if the NBA pushes from 30 to 32.

It wasn’t long ago that professional sports leagues were afraid to venture into Las Vegas. The NBA led the way in terms of embracing NBA betting into the mainstream. But it will be the last of the "Big Four" sports to get a pro team, which is somewhat surprising given the ever-growing popularity of the Las Vegas Summer League (it moved to Vegas in 2004). Just last year it hosted the inaugural NBA Cup mid-season tournament. 

The NHL and NFL have already done so with great success, and the MLB's Athletics are coming in 2028. It seems almost inevitable, especially with LeBron James outwardly saying he wants to own a franchise in the city someday. 

NBA commissioner Adam Silver said prior to last year's All-Star Break that Vegas is "definitely" an expansion candidate

Seattle had a team for 41 years before new ownership took the squad to Oklahoma City after failing to get a new arena. The SuperSonics’ fanbase hasn’t wavered much since the team left in 2008. Seattle is the largest metro area in the U.S. without a team. It’s tough to imagine the Emerald City not going all-in when the time comes to submit a proposal. 

The Clippers and Trail Blazers played a preseason game in Seattle, somewhat affirming it is on the NBA's short list. 


RELATED: Next MLB Expansion City Odds: Nashville Leads the Way


Those two teams make a lot of sense and are clear favorites to land NBA expansion teams. But other towns will make strong cases. 

Silver said the NBA will eventually expand to new regions outside of the country, and Mexico City tops the list. Central and South America are practically new markets for the NBA to infiltrate, and Mexico City has hosted close to 30 NBA games in the past. Its metro area of 21.8 million makes it slightly larger than New York City. 

The other international spot on the radar is London, still a growing community when it comes to hoops, though travel and logistical issues may make it tough. The late former NBA commissioner David Stern predicted an All-Europe division within the NBA by 2033 and thought it would be the only way to make it work. 

The U.S. has its own competitors. 

Perhaps hoops-crazed Louisville makes more sense. It has been trying to get in on the expansion conversation in the hopes to be considered when the time came. The city already boasts a 22,000-seat sparking arena that hosts U-of-L basketball, and a former legend (Dan Issel) as its spokesperson. There's a lack of pro teams in the area, so it could be the hub of a larger region that includes Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Nashville. 

Nashville has morphed itself from a country music town to an all-entertainment destination. The NFL’s Tennessee Titans and NHL’s Nashville Predators have flourished, and the town is high up the ranks in the latest MLB expansion odds. But with a team already in Memphis, would the Association put a second team in Tennessee? 

Kansas City is a growing community known for its sports fandom, not just for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but a raucous MLS home crowd and a strong loyalty to the “small market” Royals of MLB. It is also arena-ready with the T-Mobile Center downtown, which has kept it in the odds for the NHL’s Arizona Coyotes, who may be moving from Phoenix. 

The Field includes a number of cities known for their love of basketball or with a strong metro area that is currently void of the league, including Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and San Diego. Montreal could be a dark horse. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.