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Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

By Adam Thompson | | 8 mins

Warriors vs Celtics NBA Finals Game 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions

Warriors vs Celtics NBA Finals Game 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions

The Golden State Warriors righted the ship in a blowout of the Boston Celtics in Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday. But the Celtics return to Beantown with home-court advantage for Game 3 in the best-of-7 series. 

Game 3 is Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET, late for the locals but apt for the West Coast. NBA betting sites have installed Boston at -165 on the moneyline, compared to Golden State at +135. The point spread is at Celtics -3.5 with an Over/Under total of 212.5 points. 

The latest NBA championship odds still have Boston (-115) the favorite to win the series over Golden State (-105), but just barely. Here, Bookies.com breaks down Game 3 and offers its best bets on the first title-round game in Boston since 2010. 

NBA Finals Celtics vs Warriors Game 3 Odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and accurate as of publication.

NBA Finals Celtics vs Warriors Game 3 Betting Tips

Rebound Spot For Boston

Boston got whacked in Game 2, but few teams bounce back like the Celtics. They’re 24-13 against the spread (64.9%) on betting sites after a loss, the third-best mark in the NBA. They’re also 31-16 at home when favored, a solid 66% win rate. 

But Golden State is 8-10 straight up as a road dog, the fourth-best mark. Boston’s 43.5% cover rate at home ranks a modest 22nd. Boston is 6-0 in the playoffs after a loss, winning by an average of 13.5 ppg. 


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The Horford-Smart Key

When it comes to production, it’s clear why Boston thrived in Game 1 and struggled to repeat in Game 2. Combining points, rebounds and assists, Al Horford totaled 35 and Marcus Smart had 27 in the victory. In the defeat, those numbers plummeted to 11 and 9. 

Golden State ranked 26th in defense vs. point guards – yes, that’s on Steph Curry – making Smart an important key with a path to success. Smart is averaging 25.3 combined P-R-A. 

Back The Under

The Under has hit on sports betting apps in 12 of the last 15 matchups between these teams, and would have hit in both of these games so far had the Celtics not exploded for 40 fourth-quarter points in Game 1. These teams ranked No. 1 and No. 3 in defense. 

Warriors games finished -2.8 against the total, the lowest average in the NBA. Boston’s -2.8 under in home games is fourth-lowest. 

Each team has also stepped up the D vs. good opposition. Against teams with winning records, the Under is 10-3 (76.9%) in Boston’s last 13 and 11-2 (84.6%) in Golden State’s last 13. 

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NBA Finals Celtics vs Warriors Game 3 Prediction

Golden State can’t stop all of Boston’s players, but limiting Horford and Smart did the trick in Game 2. Still, Boston’s home success and its propensity to bounce back after defeats gives the Celtics the edge when looking to make NBA picks for Wednesday's game. 

In a clash of similar teams, this matchup could be determined by which team avoids one bad quarter – Golden State was outscored by 26 in the fourth quarter of its loss, Boston by 21 in the third quarter of its defeat. The TD Garden atmosphere is going to be electric and could be the difference. We like the Celtics on the moneyline and the Under in what should be a physical Game 3.

Celtics Moneyline Odds: -160

Under 212.5 Odds: -110

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com.