Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026: PGA Tour Picks and Leans For This Week

By Thomas Leary

Mar 4th, 2026 9:53 AM EST

Henley won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2025 (USATODAY)

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It wouldn't be a true betting panel without the occasional heartbreak, which is exactly what happened to Shane Lowry (and Josh Carpenter) at the Cognizant last week. The Irishman couldn't get it over the line at PGA National with double bogeys on 16 and 17 to give Nico Echavarria the victory.

But like Lowry, we're back this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy headline the field (and Russell Henley defends). We've also got the opposite field event in Puerto Rico for more bragging rights.

This golf betting season, Bookies.com continues to provide analysis from a variety of experts across the space, including leans on first round leaders, longshots, top 20s, matchups and much more.

Check out insight from a variety of sources below before you head to your favorite U.S. sports betting app.

What To Know About Bay Hill

• Firm Greens and High Winds: Forecasts for the week show warm, dry temperatures reaching the mid-80s (°F), which will dry out the Bermudagrass greens. Expect them to play extremely firm and reach speeds of 13.5 on the Stimpmeter. While winds are currently projected as moderate (10–15 mph), any increase in afternoon gusts typically turn the final stretch into a survival test where par is a gain on the field.
• Penal Rough and Distance Premium: The rough is being grown to a minimum of 3.5 inches of thick, overseeded Ryegrass. Because Bay Hill features several long approach shots (specifically from the 200+ yard range), players who lack elite driving distance or struggle to control their irons out of the thick grass will find it nearly impossible to hold the firm putting surfaces.
• Water Hazards and Scoring Volatility: Water is in play on 9 of the 18 holes, contributing to Bay Hill perennially ranking in the top five on Tour for penalty strokes. This volatility makes "Bogey Avoidance" and "Scrambling" more predictive than pure "Birdie or Better" percentages this week, favoring disciplined ball-strikers like Scheffler or McIlroy over high-risk "bombers."

Now let's pick 'em!

Arnold Palmer Invitational Winner Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Rory McIlroy +960

McIlroy has a sterling record at Bay Hill. He won in 2018, plus he's finished second, fourth, fifth and sixth -- inside the top-15 in eight of the past nine years. Any course that puts a premium on distance without overly penalizing accuracy is a McIlroy wheelhouse. As it often does, it could come down to McIlroy's putter. He's ranked 77th on Tour in SG: Putting, which is not a deal breaker when he's also first in Approach and Tee-to-Green.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Rory McIlroy +960

In the non-Scottie market, it's hard to look anywhere else but McIlroy. Trending this season with a runner up at Genesis despite not being on his A game. A winner here in 2018 along with six top 10 finishes throughout his career. Only has played two PGA Tour events this year, but ranks first in strokes gained approach and is heading to a place where ball striking will be at a premium

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Rory McIlroy +960

Your 2018 API winner is trending towards his first win of 2026. T3 in Dubai to open the year on the DPWT, T14 at Pebble and T2 last we saw him at the Genesis Invitational. Leading PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Approach.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Rory McIlroy +960

McIlroy will be making his 12th career start here at Bay Hill and comes in at 70 out of 71 golfers in the field in average finishing position (10.5). He has gained three or more strokes in 36.4% of his rounds at Bay Hill, which is super impressive at that large of a sample size. On top of that, he has been excellent to start the 2026 season with 1.86 strokes per round ball-striking. If he continues that, his knowledge here will put him right in the mix

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Xander Schauffele +2050

The World No. 10 found some form two weeks ago at Riviera, shooting three rounds in the 60s to finish T7. While Schauffele's recent results at Bay Hill are nothing special, he has the ability to overpower this golf course if he's feeling it off the tee, which should have him in the mix on the weekend. I like Xander to keep his upward trend going, and grab his first win of 2026, just ahead of "major" season starting next week.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Scottie Scheffler +340

Tiger won here 8 times. EIGHT. Somehow, the cream almost always rises at Bay Hill. Scottie Scheffler won here in 2022 and 2024. He may not touch Tiger’s dominance in Orlando. But he’ll add another red sweater to his collection this week against another API stellar field. It seems like forever since he last won.

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API Top 20 Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Nicolai Hojgaard +198

Hojgaard is proving to be a new player in his third season on the PGA Tour. He made a Sunday charge to tie for sixth at the Cognizant. That followed a tie for third at Phoenix and a top-25 at Torrey Pines. Hojgaard is ranked 10th on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, 11th in Approach, sixth in Tee-to-Green and 37th in Putting. That's a lot of things going right all at the same time.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Matt Fitzpatrick -118

Now that Fitzpatrick's TGL season is over, he can focus on tournament golf (kidding). Again, ball striking is always a premium at Bay Hill, and Fitzy ranks fourth on tour in strokes gained approach. He's third on tour in terms of GIR percentage to date. He did miss the cut here in 2024, but has thrown in a bunch of other top 15s, including runner up in 2019. 

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Chris Gotterup +144

I've missed out on the Gotterup train so far this season and this price feels generous. Little course history and he did come back down to earth with a MC at Genesis, which might explain the odds. But I'll take plus-money in a limited field for a two-time winner already this season.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Corey Conners +198

We are buying low here on Conners. He is one of the elite ball-strikers on Tour and has the Bay Hill course history to back it up, with two 3rds and positive true strokes gained on approach in all 7 career starts at the track. The biggest knock on Conners has always been the putter, but the switch to a faster surface coming off Poa Annua out west should work in his favor. Top finishers at Bay Hill tend to gain far more on approach than any other category. and that's exactly where Conners' game is built to thrive in a Top 20 spot.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Harris English +120

Believe it or not, English has yet to finish in the top 20 in any of his first 5 tournaments this year. That changes this week for the former Georgia Bulldog, who does have a runner-up finish at Bay Hill, back in 2023 when Kurt Kitayama won.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Collin Morikawa -105

Last year, Collin Morikawa saw his two-stroke lead on the back nine Sunday evaporate. He settled for a second-place finish to Russell Henley. Morikawa (-105 at FanDuel) is a solid play here, especially at this price. He’s already booked one win this year. Here, we just need him on the 2nd page of the NBC leaderboard.

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API Longshot Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Corey Conners +7800

This is a tough call, since signature events tend to be won by the best golfers and not long shots (though Kurt Kitayama did win at Bay Hill three years ago). But Conners, despite a slow start to the season, has the game to tackle Bay Hill, Like when he tied for third last year. And also in 2021. Conners has finished top-25 at Bay Hill five years' running.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Corey Conners +7800

Conners has struggled a bit in 2026, which would explain his long odds (+7800). Otherwise, he has great value here, having finished no worse than 21st in his last five tries, including a solo third last year.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Keith Mitchell +7000

Bay Hill is a course where Cashmere Keith's ball-striking will be on full display. Word is he switched to a mallet putter last week at Cognizant. Result? T6.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Sepp Straka +5800

Straka is the definition of having every club in the bag, ranking inside the top 15 in SG: Approach, top 9 in SG: Around the Green, and top 25 in SG: Off-the-Tee heading into this week. He's coming off a runner-up finish at Pebble Beach and delivered a T5 here last year after rallying from an opening-round 77. He leads the field in proximity from 175–200 yards, which is exactly the range Bay Hill tests most, making these odds way too long for a guy with this kind of course fit and recent form.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Jason Day +7600

The Australian had a top 10 finish at Bay Hill last year and recently found some magic in January, finishing T2 to Scottie Scheffler at the American Express. He's cooled off since Palm Springs but is due for a win in my book.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Keegan Bradley +6400

Bradley knows this track well. And loves it. He has missed the cut here just once in 14 tries. He finished in the top five here in 2025.

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Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR) 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See http://BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico Open Winner

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Eugenio Chacarra +6500

Spaniard is no stranger to the winner's circle. He won on LIV as a 22-year-old in 2022 against far better players than he'll face this week. He since has won DP World Tour and Asian Tour events. Chacarra is currently on the DP World Tour and tied for 15th at the Dubai Invitational back in January. He's ranked 142nd OWGR

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Rasmus Hojgaard +1050

Similar strategy to picking Shane Lowry last week at the Cog — Hojgaard is clearly the class of this tournament. Add in a T9 at the Cognizant, and we should see Hojgaard in the mix late on Sunday.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Matti Schmid +4300

The 28-year-old German is coming off a T9 at Cognizant and was T6 at Puerto Rico last year. His stats don't exactly jump off the page so far this season but Schmid has been sniffing around for a couple years now.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Chad Ramey +4000

Ramey has one of the best course histories in this field at Grand Reserve, averaging 68.8 across his rounds at Coco Beach, ranking among the lowest in the field over the last 6 years. That includes a T5 finish in 2022, and he's shown he can handle windy Caribbean conditions after winning the Corales Puntacana Championship. He comes in with solid recent form too — he's made all four cuts this season with a round of 67 or better in each start, and led the Cognizant field in strokes gained on approach last week

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Michael Brennan +2600

The 24-year-old won his first PGA Tour event in Utah back in October, but has been struggling against better fields early on 2026. I like his chances to notch a second victory in Puerto Rico.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Ricky Castillo +2300

This opposite-field tournament offers little – except for the winner. Don’t expect anyone close to play it safe Sunday. Ricky Castillo fits that bill. He played well down the stretch last week at Cognizant for a top-five finish and can ride that momentum against the Tier Two field.

Recent API History

Recent Puerto Rico Open History

Who's Who In Bookies Golf Roundtable

Len Hochberg has covered golf for RotoWire since 2013. A veteran sports journalist, he was an editor and reporter at The Washington Post for nine years. Len is a three-time winner of the FSWA DFS Writer of the Year Award (2020, '22 and '23) and a five-time nominee (2019-23). He is also a writer and editor for MLB Advanced Media.

Josh Carpenter covers golf and sports media for Sports Business Journal, having been with the publication since 2012. Away from the office, Josh loves playing golf and spending time with his wife Amy and son, Walt. He is an avid supporter of the Carolina Hurricanes and Tennessee Volunteers.

Thomas Leary is a senior editor with Gambling.com Group who works across a variety of the company's portfolios, including Bookies.com. Previously, Thomas spent over six years at Sports Business Journal where he helped launch the digital newsletter division. He is a Charlotte, NC native and long-suffering Hornets fan.

Jared Kimble is a media manager with Gambling.com Group who oversees the group's North American digital PR efforts. Jared previously worked for the Orlando Magic. A Pennsylvania native, he is an Elon University graduate and currently resides in Charlotte, NC.

David Rumsey is a reporter at Front Office Sports, focusing on golf, college football, and the NFL. He has a B.A. in Communication Studies from Southern Adventist University in Chattanooga, Tenn. David is based in Charleston, S.C.

Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.

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