Cognizant Classic 2026: PGA Tour Picks and Leans For This Week

By Thomas Leary

Feb 25th, 2026 7:26 AM EST

Can a player like Haotong Li break through at PGA National? (USATODAY)

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The PGA Tour's West Coast swing is in the books, as we turn our eyes to Florida for the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches. PGA National historically was one of the toughest tracks players faced, though recent years have seen modern pros find ways to take it low. Jake Knapp fired an opening round 59 here last year, while Joe Highsmith went on to win at a score of -19.

There are lesser names in the field this week than the signature event at Riviera, but that just means more value across the board, right?

This golf betting season, Bookies.com continues to provide analysis from a variety of experts across the space, including leans on first round leaders, longshots, top 20s, matchups and much more.

How's your 2026 golf card looking so far? Check out insight from a variety of sources below before you head to your favorite U.S. sports betting app.

What To Know About PGA National

Here are three key things to know about PGA National for betting the Cognizant Classic:

• Precision over power — it's a second-shot course. The Champion Course requires precision due to small landing areas and exposure to wind. The most common approach distances fall between 125 and 200 yards, making it a true second-shot track where players often club down from driver to leave longer approaches into the large greens. Target players with strong approach play and high accuracy stats.
• Beware the Bear Trap. The course features water in play on 15 of 18 holes and is famous for the "Bear Trap" — holes 15–17. As Jack Nicklaus put it, the tournament is won or lost there, and it's all about precision and mental toughness, not length.
• Bermuda greens matter — lean on course history. The switch to Bermuda greens after weeks on Poa during the California swing is a significant adjustment, so targeting players who have performed well on Bermuda is important.

Now let's pick 'em!

Cognizant Classic Winner Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Nicolai Hojgaard +2150

Hojgaard struggled mightily in his first two seasons on Tour. This season, however, he seems to be finding his footing. He tied for 22nd at the Farmers, then for third at Phoenix. Hojgaard leads the Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, is 17th on Approach, seventh in Tee-to-Green and 30th in Putting. Strong all around. He tied for 18th here a year ago. The key for him this week will keeping his booming drives in the fairway (he surely knows that).

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Shane Lowry +1900

The betting favorites at many books, I don't think you can look anywhere else. A solid start to the season across both the DP World and PGA Tours. And he's done everything but win at this golf course, finishing no worse than 11th in his last four events here. Lowry is due.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Nicolai Hojgaard +2150

Hojgaard is making his 59th career PGA Tour start this week. The 24-year-old has 3 runner-ups and 16 top 25s. He's won four times on the DPWT and has already played on a winning Ryder Cup team. In a weaker field at a course he's played decently, off a 3rd place in Phoenix ... it feels like his time.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Nicolai Højgaard +2150

Nicolai leads the entire field in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last nine months and is ranked 1st on Tour in SG: Off the Tee in 2026, with three top-4 finishes in his last 6 starts including a near-win at Phoenix. PGA National demands elite ball-striking and bogey avoidance above all else, and he's one of the few players in this price range also gaining strokes on the greens, giving him a rare complete profile for this course.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +3700

The 26-year-old from Denmark receives a lot of hype from European golf fans, especially after winning his first DP World Tour event in December, edging out Cam Smith at the Australian Open. Neergaard-Petersen hasn’t cracked the Top 40 in his first two PGA Tour starts this season, but is facing a field this week with no players inside the Top 25 of the Official World Golf Ranking (he’s currently No. 58), and has the 10th best odds of winning at PGA National.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Brooks Koepka +2900

This field is wide-open, given that no one in the top 25 is playing this week in the Palm Beaches. This means the winner will deliver a nice price. Brooks Koepka (+2900 at DraftKings) has a chance to make a PGA Tour splash. And he’s back on his home turf. He played his high school golf right down the street from PGA National.

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Cognizant Top 20 Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Haotong Li +184

Li tied for eighth at the Amex and 11th at the Farmers -- two entirely different courses. He is ranked top-10 on Tour in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Tee-to-Green -- he's a highly accurate driver -- and top-25 in Approach. Those are great numbers. Yes, he's 129th in Putting, but we suspect that standing will improve in this weak field.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Haotong Li +184

Has not played since missing the cut at WM Phoenix Open, but was trending before that with top 11 finishes at AmEx and Farmers. Stronger than average off the tee and on approach in those starts, which should bode well at PGA National.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Johnny Keefer +205

Keefer hasn't set the world on fire yet in his rookie season but is handling his business. He's 4/4 in made cuts and his first top 20 is inevitable. Keefer ran away with the Korn Ferry money title in 2025.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Mac Meissner +176

Meissner has gained strokes on approach in nine of his last 10 starts with five top-20 finishes in that stretch, and ranks fourth in this field in bogey avoidance - the most important floor stat at water-heavy PGA National. At +176, you're getting a guy who's been cashing top 20s at a 50% clip recently on a course that perfectly rewards his disciplined profile.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Brooks Koepka +186

I’m going back to the well on Koepka, despite not showing much form in his first two starts back on the PGA Tour. It’s a home game for the five-time major winner, who’s part of the Jupiter crowd. This is his last start before the Players Championship, so he’ll need to be locked in for preparation there.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Will Zalatoris +160

Will Zalatoris hasn’t played here in 5 years. He finished T18 at The American Express in late January.

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First Round Leader Bets

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - John Parry +6700

The 39-year-old Parry is an English import from the DP World Tour. He hasn't missed a cut in four starts this season, opening each tournament in 60s: 64, 67, 67, 69. He's ranked 11th in greens in regulation and 35th in Putting, which is a good recipe to get hot right out of the gate.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Johnny Keefer +5700

Ranks second on the tour in ball striking and first in GIR.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Chris Kirk +5900

Tried Kirk FRL at the Sony and got burned but we're back on the horse this week. Despite a pretty terrible start to the season, the tempo king is still 13th in SG: Approach on Tour. Won here in 2023 and fired an opening round 66 last year. Few guys are happier to see Bermuda greens this week than Kirk.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Haotong Li +5700

Haotong Li is the best combination of current form and R1 upside on this board. He's posted four T-11-or-better finishes in his last six starts, has been one of the best drivers of the ball in this field (gained strokes off the tee in 19 consecutive starts), and his boom/bust approach game means when he's on from the jump he can post a truly low number - exactly what you need for an FRL bet. At +5700, the price is right for a guy whose elite ball-striking can light up Round 1 before any short-game inconsistencies compound over four days.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Haotong Li +5700

Li hasn’t played since missing the cut in Phoenix, but before that finished T8 in Palm Springs and T11 at Torrey Pines. He’ll be motivated to perform this week to try and earn a spot in the Players Championship in just a few weeks.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Ryan Gerard +3600

Finished T25 here last year and carded a 68 in the first round. He closed well last week at Tiger’s Place, shooting a 67 on Sunday. Momentum carries East.

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Cognizant Longshots

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Beau Hossler +9600

Don't try this at home: I'm picking a guy who hasn't made a cut so far this season. But things are so ripe for a long shot to contend this week -- no top guys, very weak field. You don't often see a guy who hasn't made a cut at under 100-1 to win. But in this field, yeah. Hossler missed the Sony cut on the number and the Farmers by two shots so he's … close? He's played here five times and made every cut. Hossler's 2026 stats are not that bad -- 56th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 27th in SG: Putting.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Andrew Putnam +16500

Flashed here last year with a T11, and was runner up at AmEx.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Kevin Roy +8200

T13 at both the Sony and WMPO. Who could forget?

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Eric Cole +8600

Cole has gained strokes off the tee in 19 consecutive starts - the longest streak in this field - and excels on short Bermuda courses, having already spiked twice on approach this season with 4+ strokes gained at the American Express and Farmers. With 43% of approach shots at PGA National coming from 150-200 yards, Cole's above-average scoring-opportunity rate from that range and his T-2 course history from 2023 make him an ideal longshot profile at a venue that's produced two 100/1+ winners in the last four years.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Blades Brown +10500

If the 18-year-old can hang with Scottie Scheffler at the AmEx, taking on the field at the Cognizant should be no problem, right? Brown hasn’t played a competitive round since Feb. 5, so he’ll be fresh at the very least.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Billy Horschel +7500

Florida native Billy Horschel finished T25 here last year, shooting 11-under. He closed with a pair of 69s at Pebble two weeks ago.

Recent History of Cognizant Classic

Who's Who In Bookies Golf Roundtable

Len Hochberg has covered golf for RotoWire since 2013. A veteran sports journalist, he was an editor and reporter at The Washington Post for nine years. Len is a three-time winner of the FSWA DFS Writer of the Year Award (2020, '22 and '23) and a five-time nominee (2019-23). He is also a writer and editor for MLB Advanced Media.

Josh Carpenter covers golf and sports media for Sports Business Journal, having been with the publication since 2012. Away from the office, Josh loves playing golf and spending time with his wife Amy and son, Walt. He is an avid supporter of the Carolina Hurricanes and Tennessee Volunteers.

Thomas Leary is a senior editor with Gambling.com Group who works across a variety of the company's portfolios, including Bookies.com. Previously, Thomas spent over six years at Sports Business Journal where he helped launch the digital newsletter division. He is a Charlotte, NC native and long-suffering Hornets fan.

Jared Kimble is a media manager with Gambling.com Group who oversees the group's North American digital PR efforts. Jared previously worked for the Orlando Magic. A Pennsylvania native, he is an Elon University graduate and currently resides in Charlotte, NC.

David Rumsey is a reporter at Front Office Sports, focusing on golf, college football, and the NFL. He has a B.A. in Communication Studies from Southern Adventist University in Chattanooga, Tenn. David is based in Charleston, S.C.

Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.

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