AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2026: PGA Tour Picks and Leans For Pebble Beach

By Bookies.com Staff

Feb 11th, 2026 8:49 AM EST

McIlroy got his first win at Pebble in 2025 (USATODAY)

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Rory McIlroy makes his 2026 PGA Tour debut this week at Pebble Beach, and he'll do so as the reigning champion. Euros Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry are also making their Tour debuts, while Scottie Scheffler and already two-time winner this season Chris Gotterup also headline the field.

This golf betting season, Bookies.com continue to provide analysis from a variety of experts across the space, including leans on first round leaders, longshots, top 20s, matchups and much more.

How's your 2026 golf card looking so far? Check out insight from a variety of sources below before you head to your favorite U.S. sports betting app.

What To Know About Pebble Beach

Signature Event Setup: The tournament remains a Signature Event with a limited 80-man field and no cut. Players will alternate between Pebble Beach GL and Spyglass Hill for the first two rounds, while the weekend will be played exclusively at Pebble Beach.
Precision Over Power: Pebble Beach remains one of the shortest courses on Tour (approx. 6,989 yards). But because many holes require laying up due to doglegs and coastal winds, driving distance is neutralized. Success this week centers on Strokes Gained: Approach and proximity from 100–150 yards.
Tiny Targets: Pebble Beach features the smallest greens on the PGA Tour, averaging just 3,500 square feet. This makes scrambling and around-the-green play critical, as even elite iron players will miss these small, bunker-protected Poa Annua surfaces more often than usual.
Weather Volatility: While the first three rounds are currently projected to have manageable conditions, the final round on Sunday (Feb. 15) has early forecasts calling for rain and gusts, potentially favoring "mudders" or players with strong links-style experience like defending champion Rory McIlroy.

Pebble Beach Winner Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Scottie Scheffler +295

Do I think this is a smart play at the odds? No. Do I think Scheffler will win his seventh signature event this week? Yes. Experience matters at Pebble. Scheffler had never played there till it became a signature event two years ago. He's finished sixth and then ninth. Now he has played Pebble enough to fully learn all the quirks required to master the course. If you don't want to play Scheffler at such a low number, maybe pivot to Justin Rose at +2800.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Si Woo Kim +2500

Let's keep this hot run going where ball striking will be a premium and finally get Si Woo across the line. His worst finish in 2026 is a T11 at Sony. Gradual improvement since then including a T3 at TPC Scottsdale. Kim has a bit of a feast or famine record here, with two MCs alongside 14th, 4th and 12th place finishes over his last 5 starts. Lost almost half a stroke putting in Phoenix. If some of those fall on the Monterey Peninsula, he's your winner.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Jake Knapp +3800

He hasn't made quite as much noise as Chris Gotterup or Si Woo Kim this year, but Jake Knapp has come out firing in his own right. T11 at Sony, T5 at Farmers and 8th last week in Phoenix. Not much course history at Pebble but the 31-year-old has displayed a more than well-rounded game in 2026. Think he gets win No. 2 this week.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Russell Henley +3000

A short golf course, hard-to-hit greens and needed course history? We are checking all boxes on Russell Henley. Henley boasts top-20 finishes in his last 10 PGA Tour starts and Pebble is an absolutely ideal fit for his game.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Viktor Hovland +2700

While most folks’ money will rightly be on World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler or defending champion Rory McIlroy, I’m banking on the Norwegian to crash their party in his second start of the 2026 PGA Tour season. Hovland finished T10 last week at the WM Phoenix Open, firing off rounds of 69, 70, 65, and 68. His best finish at the AT&T was T13 in 2023, but the former Oklahoma State Cowboy does know what it takes to win at Pebble, where Hovland captured the 2018 U.S. Amateur.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Scottie Scheffler +295

We got away with not picking Scottie last week. The Tour’s annual pilgrimage to Pebble Beach is the first tentpole event of the season and kicks off the post-NFL PGA Tour season. When the spotlight shines brightest, Scottie’s at his best. Rain and wind occupy the Sunday forecast. More reason to ride with the Big Guy here.

Pebble Beach Top 20 Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Tom Hoge +480

Hoge plays here every year and does great just about every year. He won here in 2022, before it became a signature event. But he was T6 two years ago and T17 last year. Hoge already has a top-20 this season at the Amex (actually, a top-10). You aren't gonna get great odds on many guys for a top-20 in an 80-man field. But Hoge offers a good number.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Justin Rose -108

Maybe I'm undervaluing Rose here, but winning in back-to-back starts is hard for anyone not named Scheffler these days. Rose won here in 2023, finished T11 in 2024 and was T3 last year and is coming off that runaway at Torrey Pines. Lock it in.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Robert MacIntyre +112

Fresh perspective alert: Big Shot Bob is teeing it up for the first time as a father. Nevermind the fact that he finished T4 at Sony and won his last pro-am (the Alfred Dunhill Links last fall.) Did you know Bob is now No. 8 in OWGR?

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Jason Day +126

Day has never missed the cut at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in his entire career…all 15 times. He has 1.72 true strokes gained on the field during his career at Pebble. Despite some uncharacteristic short game issues last week, his T2 at The American Express shows good form.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Shane Lowry +160

The Irishman is making his first PGA Tour start in 2026 but has already played twice on the DP World Tour, including a T3 finish at the Dubai Invitational last month. I like the plus-money here for Lowry, who finished second to only Rory McIlroy last year at Pebble Beach.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Jason Day +126

A nice return on a player who has landed in the top 10 here 9 times. His game suits this course perfectly. And he’s been around long enough to not be swayed in the rain.

First Round Leader Bets

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Jason Day

Day's record at Pebble Beach is borderline legendary. Sixteen starts with zero missed cuts, nine of them ending in the top-10. He tied for sixth two years ago and 13th last year. He had an otherworldly first-round at the Amex a few weeks back, shooting a 63 on the Stadium track.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Patrick Cantlay

What's not to like here? His last four opening rounds in this event have been: 66, 64, 65 and 62.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Matt Fitzpatrick

Fitzy striped it at Waste Management. His putter was to blame for a disappointing 9th place after an opening round 65. T6 at Pebble in 2022 and T12 here at the US Open.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Jake Knapp

When Knapp is on a roll, the man can put up loads of birdies. Coming off a Phoenix Open weekend of -8, his recent form trends to a potential first round hot start. Knapp has shot under par in all but one round and he ranks 7th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained. Safe to expect some early fireworks.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Justin Rose

Rosey will be a popular pick for many bettors this week, playing in his first tournament since dominating the field at Torrey Pines a couple weeks ago. But with good reason; take a look at his last three finishes at the AT&T: T3 (2025), T11 (2024), and Win (2023). Would it shock anyone to see him atop the leaderboard Thursday evening?

Bill Speros, Bookies - Russell Henley

He shot a -8 in the opening round here last year. Good weather early in the week will help.

Pebble Beach Longshots

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Jacob Bridgeman +12000

The assignment is to pick a long shot. In the few years there have been signature events, only two guys that we could consider long shots have won -- Kurt Kitayama at Bay Hill in 2023 and Chris Kirk at the Sentry in 2024. But Bridgeman has the best chance among this current crop. If you are ranked sixth on Tour in SG: Putting, you always have a puncher's chance.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Tom Hoge +2600

Finished 17th or better in four of his last five starts here, including a win in 2022. Tough start to 2026 outside a T8 at Amex.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Nick Taylor +8400

The Canadian is 3 for 3 in made cuts this season. Of course won here in 2020 and has won Waste Management, the Sony and the Canadian Open since. Serious win equity for a player at this number.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Jacob Bridgeman +12000

Bridgeman has been great in 2026, finishing T4th, T13th and T18th in his respective events. He has gained strokes on approach and putting in all three of his tournaments this season. While it will be his Pebble Beach debut, I expect T20 upside and potentially a sneaky golfer to hoist the trophy

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Wyndham Clark +8000

Clark will have good memories at Pebble, where he won the rain-shortened 54-hole Signature Event in 2024. While he hasn’t exactly been lighting it up on the golf course this year, he hasn’t missed a cut in three starts, and did finish T13 at the American Express

Bill Speros, Bookies - Sahith Theegala +8000

The 28-year-old American finished T18 last week at TPC Scottsdale after back-to-back top-10 finishes at the American Express and Farmers Insurance Open.

Recent History at AT&T Pro-Am

Year	Winner	Winning Score	Pre-Tournament Odds
2025	Rory McIlroy	267 (-21)	+1200
2024	Wyndham Clark	199 (-17)*	+9000
2023	Justin Rose	269 (-18)	+2950
2022	Tom Hoge	268 (-19)	+6600
2021	Daniel Berger	270 (-18)	+1800

*54 holes due to weather

Who's Who In Bookies Golf Roundtable

Len Hochberg has covered golf for RotoWire since 2013. A veteran sports journalist, he was an editor and reporter at The Washington Post for nine years. Len is a three-time winner of the FSWA DFS Writer of the Year Award (2020, '22 and '23) and a five-time nominee (2019-23). He is also a writer and editor for MLB Advanced Media.

Josh Carpenter covers golf and sports media for Sports Business Journal, having been with the publication since 2012. Away from the office, Josh loves playing golf and spending time with his wife Amy and son, Walt. He is an avid supporter of the Carolina Hurricanes and Tennessee Volunteers.

Thomas Leary is a senior editor with Gambling.com Group who works across a variety of the company's portfolios, including Bookies.com. Previously, Thomas spent over six years at Sports Business Journal where he helped launch the digital newsletter division. He is a Charlotte, NC native and long-suffering Hornets fan.

Jared Kimble is a media manager with Gambling.com Group who oversees the group's North American digital PR efforts. Jared previously worked for the Orlando Magic. A Pennsylvania native, he is an Elon University graduate and currently resides in Charlotte, NC.

David Rumsey is a reporter at Front Office Sports, focusing on golf, college football, and the NFL. He has a B.A. in Communication Studies from Southern Adventist University in Chattanooga, Tenn. David is based in Charleston, S.C.

Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.