How Much Would You Make Betting On Belmont Stakes Favorite Every Year?
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Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike returns to the Triple Crown fold in the 154th running of the Belmont Stakes Saturday at Belmont Park. Rich Strike won the Derby after going off at 80-1, sitting back before slicing through a tired field down the final turn and up the homestretch. The colt skipped the Preakness two weeks later.
Before the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Bookies.com looked at how well bettors would have done backing the Kentucky Derby favorite with $100 across the board over the last 30 years, and the same for the favorite at the Preakness.
The strategy of betting $100 across the board on the favorite to win, place and show in the past 30 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes races netted horse racing would-be bettors $5,715 on $18,000 in total money wagered.
We have now done the same for the Belmont Stakes. Three of the past four Belmont Stakes have been won by the odds-on favorite at post-time, and the favorite has run either first or second in the past five Belmonts. But our formula is not a winner over the long run. If you bet $100 across the board on the favorite in the previous 30 Belmont Stakes races, you would have lost $1,965 on $9,000 in total wagers.
As was the case with Rich Strike, Preakness winner Early Voting is not running this weekend but instead prepping for the Travers Stakes.
Betting The Belmont Stakes Favorite
Here is an analysis of the past 30 Belmont Stakes listed by year with the race favorite, the favorite's odds, finish, total winnings if you bet $100 on the horse to win, place and show, the winning horse, and its odds.
30 Years Of Belmont Stakes Betting
| Year | Favorite | Odds | Finish | $ Won | Winning Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Essential Quality | 1.3 | 1 | $510 | Essential Quality | 1.3 |
| 2020 | Tiz The Law | 0.8 | 1 | $455 | Tiz The Law | 0.8 |
| 2019 | Tacitus | 1.95 | 2 | $355 | Sir Winston | 12 |
| 2018 | Justify | 0.8 | 1 | $495 | Justify | 0.8 |
| 2017 | Irish War Cry | 2.0 | 2 | $430 | Tapwrit | 5.3 |
| 2016 | Exaggerator | 1.45 | 11 | $0 | Creator | 16.4 |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | 0.75 | 1 | $440 | American Pharoah | 0.75 |
| 2014 | California Chrome | 0.85 | 4 | $0 | Tonalist | 9.2 |
| 2013 | Orb | 2.2 | 3 | $110 | Palace Malice | 13.8 |
| 2012 | Dullahan | 2.5 | 7 | $0 | Union Rags | 2.75 |
| 2011 | Animal Kingdom | 2.5 | 6 | $0 | Ruler On Ice | 24.0 |
| 2010 | Ice Box | 3.0 | 8 | $0 | Drosselmeyer | 13 |
| 2009 | Mine That Bird | 1.25 | 3 | $130 | Summer Bird | 11.9 |
| 2008 | Big Brown | 0.25 | 9 | $0 | Da’Tara | 38.5 |
| 2007 | Curlin | 1.1 | 2 | $265 | Rags To Riches | 4.3 |
| 2006 | Bob And John | 4.7 | 8 | $0 | Jazil | 6.2 |
| 2005 | Afleet Alex | 1.15 | 1 | $545 | Alfleet Alex | 1.15 |
| 2004 | Smarty Jones | 0.35 | 2 | $295 | Birdstone | 36 |
| 2003 | Funny Cide | 1.0 | 3 | $135 | Empire Maker | 2.0 |
| 2002 | War Emblem | 1.25 | 8 | $0 | Sarava | 70.25 |
| 2001 | Point Given | 1.3 | 1 | $570 | Point Given | 1.3 |
| 2000 | Aptitude | 1.75 | 2 | $330 | Commendable | 18.8 |
| 1999 | Charismatic | 1.6 | 3 | $180 | Lemon Drop Kid | 29.75 |
| 1998 | Real Quiet | 0.8 | 2 | $280 | Victory Gallup | 4.5 |
| 1997 | Silver Charm | 1.05 | 2 | $270 | Touch Golf | 2.65 |
| 1996 | Cavonnier | 3 | 14 | $0 | Editor’s Note | 5.8 |
| 1995 | Thunder Gulch | 1.5 | 1 | $580 | Thunder Gulch | 1.5 |
| 1994 | Strodes Creek | 1.3 | 3 | $110 | Tabasco Cat | 3.4 |
| 1993 | Prairie Bayou | 2.7 | 13 | $0 | Colonial Affair | 13.9 |
| 1992 | A.P. Indy | 1.1 | 1 | $550 | A.P. Indy | 1.1 |
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Analysis Of Belmont Stakes Betting Odds
The favorite at online betting sites won the Belmont Stakes eight times overall in this span (26.6%). Meanwhile, there have been 23 horses who won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but not the Belmont.
The Belmont is the longest of the Triple Crown races, run over an unforgiving and grueling 1 ½-mile track at the famed Empire State racing venue in Elmont, New York. Cooler-than-normal weather is expected with temperatures in the low-70s and the likelihood of rain.
Given the distance of the Belmont Stakes and its placement at the tail-end of the Triple Crown run, it has often seen a smaller field than the other two Crown Jewels.
Such is the case this week. The 2022 Derby had a full field of 20 entrants, while the Preakness had just nine. Belmont oddsmakers and bettors tend to lean toward the favorite. The average price for the favorite on betting apps in the past 30 Belmont Stakes is a meager 1.70-1. Bettors will do better looking for the right combination boxing perfectas and trifectas.
Rich Strike took advantage of a furious early pace in the Derby and sliced through an exhausted field to win by 3/4th of a length. The Preakness, at 1 3/16th mile, is the shortest of the three Triple Crown races. Rich Strike was not suited for that distance.
Post time for the Belmont Stakes Saturday is approximately 7:01 p.m. and the race will air on NBC.
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