Breaking Van Brocklin: Will Any QB Break NFL Single-Game Passing Yards Mark?
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Norm Van Brocklin’s mark of 554 passing yards in an NFL game has stood since 1951. Which current quarterback might finally take down this remarkable record?
Given the pass-first nature of today’s NFL, it is stunning that the league’s single-game passing yardage record has stood since the waning days of the Harry S. Truman administration.
Former Los Angeles Rams gunslinger Norm Van Brocklin still holds the NFL’s single-game mark with 554 yards against the New York Yanks on Sept. 28, 1951.
As the 2025 season and NFL betting gets ready to roll, Bookies.com wanted to see which current NFL QB has the best odds of finally topping the 74 year-old standard. That inspired us to generate hypothetical odds on the subject.
Odds To Break NFL Single-Game Passing Yardage Record
| Player | Odds | Percent Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | +10000 | 1.0% |
| C.J. Stroud | +15000 | 0.7% |
| Dak Prescott | +15000 | 0.7% |
| Josh Allen | +20000 | 0.5% |
| Justin Herbert | +20000 | 0.5% |
| Patrick Mahomes | +20000 | 0.5% |
| Jared Goff | +35000 | 0.3% |
| Caleb Williams | +35000 | 0.3% |
| Baker Mayfield | +35000 | 0.3% |
| The Field | +3250 | 3.0% |
| Record Isn’t Broken (Next 5 Years) | -1200 | 92.3% |
These odds are not to be found at any sports betting apps operators; they’re exclusive to Bookies.com.
Van Brocklin threw for 23,611 yards and more interceptions (178) than touchdowns (173) in his career, which are not impressive stats by today’s standards. But when he retired in 1960, Van Brocklin – who went on to be an NFL head coach with the Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons – was second in all-time passing yards, behind only Bobby Layne. Van Brocklin now ranks No. 94 on the league’s all-time passing yards list.
On that famous day in 1951, Van Brocklin completed 27 of 41 passes with five touchdowns (he ran for a score as well) to average 13.5 yards per attempt in a 54-14 victory over the Yanks. The player nicknamed “The Dutchman” was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1971 and died in 1983.
We have long odds on any current quarterback breaking the record any time soon.
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Which QB Can Top Van Brocklin’s Mark?
The top contender to top Van Brocklin’s mark of 554 passing yards is the man who has come closest among current players.
Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals threw for the fourth-most yards in a single game against the Baltimore Ravens in 2021. During that contest, Burrow threw for 525 yards on 37/46 passing, averaging 11.4 yards per attempt. That’s short of Van Brocklin’s 13.5 YPA figure from that 1951 contest, but high enough to inspire us to believe that the former Heisman Trophy winner out of LSU can someday top the single-game record.
Burrow is our top contender to break Van Brocklin’s record, at +10000 and his Bengals are among the top 10 teams on Super Bowl futures boards at U.S. online betting sites.
As for other contenders, keep an eye on two Texas signalcallers, in C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys veteran Dak Prescott (at +15000 apiece). Stroud threw for 470 yards in a 2023 game against Tampa Bay and Prescott’s career mark for yards was 502 against the Cleveland Browns in 2020, the 25th most in a single game in league history.
Three more guys who can air it out – Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs – check in at +20000 odds apiece to break Van Brocklin’s mark.
Mahomes is the only one of the three to crack the NFL’s top 50 chart for yards in one game, with 478 against the Rams in 2018.
Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions is one of the others on our board; he had a 517-yard game for the Rams against the Buccaneers in 2019. The odds that Van Brocklin’s record stands for at least another five years sit at -1200 – that would translate to a 92.3% implied probability with operators offering the best sportsbook promos.
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Who Has Come Closest To Record Since 1951?
Van Brocklin’s single game record has stood for nearly 75 years, but his mark has been threatened since. Two Houston QBs (for different franchises) came closest to that magic 554-yard mark.
Texans QB Matt Schaub threw for 527 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2012, tied for second most all time. In 1990, Houston’s franchise was the Oilers and their star, future Hall of Famer Warren Moon, had a 527-yard game against the Chiefs. Burrow’s 525-yard game is next closest in league history.
To break Van Brocklin’s mark, a quarterback would have to average at least 139 yards per quarter. That has been too tall of a task, apparently. By the time the 2025 NFL season starts, more than 27,000 days will have passed since the former Rams QB set the NFL’s standard for single-game passing excellence.
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