2026 World Cup Betting Tips: Caesars Sportsbook VP Breaks Down Odds, Dark Horses, and How to Bet Every Round

By Bill Speros

Jun 9th, 2026 9:25 AM EDT

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The 2026 FIFA World Cup begins Thursday (June 11) in Mexico City. This year, the world's biggest sporting event will rewrite the record books in just about every way imaginable — teams, games, sports betting, prediction markets, and dollars wagered. Our 2026 World Cup Betting Tips are here to help you navigate the soccer tournament that ends in New York on July 19.

For the first time in the World Cup, 48 nations compete across 104 matches hosted in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. That's an increase from 64 games played by 32 teams four years ago in Qatar. The expanded format means more group-stage drama, more knockout opportunities, and dramatically more betting action in for our 2026 World Cup Betting Tips.

Bookies.com reports that $3.1 billion is projected to be legally wagered on the 2026 World Cup through regulated U.S. sportsbooks , with an additional $2.37 billion traded on prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Those numbers dwarf any previous betting event in American sports.

To help bettors navigate the tournament, Bookies.com spoke with Craig Mucklow, Vice President of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook, for a wide-ranging conversation on what makes this World Cup different, where the early money is flowing, and 2026 World Cup Betting Tips tips every bettor should know before the opening whistle.

Some of the questions and answers have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Q&A With Caesars VP Of Trading Craig Mucklow

Bookies.com: What makes this World Cup different from a betting standpoint?

Craig Mucklow: It's pretty easy — 104 games, the largest tournament ever. It used to be a lot less when there were 32 teams. Now we've got 48. From a bettor standpoint, we've 10x'd the amount of markets available to customers. We can parlay the bracket as well.

If you want the USA to reach the quarterfinals, England to make the quarterfinals, Argentina to win, and France to come second — you can same-game parlay the bracket. We did that for the NCAA basketball tournament and it was unbelievably popular. These are lottery tickets. You could turn $1 into $500 or $600. I'll throw one in right now: England to win, Argentina runner-up, USA to win their group, France to win their group, Spain to win their group — that's 450-to-1, straight away.

We've also got tournament-wide totals. Total corner kicks for the whole tournament: 1,000.5. Total goals: 281.5. It's not going to be short on action.

Where is the early money in the U.S.?

France has 16.5% of the handle. Portugal has 15%. Spain is also popular. Ticket-wise, France, Spain, and Portugal are one, two, and three. Customers are playing teams they know are going to go far.

Surprisingly, the U.S. men's national team has only 7% of tickets and 3% of the handle. I figured that would be a multi-seven-figure liability by Thursday, but it's not quite there yet — although it's heading there.

Are the favorites like France and Spain overpriced?

No, I think the prices are fair. You're never going to get 2-to-1 or a 6-to-4 shot in the World Cup because there are just too many good teams. Realistically, 12 teams can win it. The rest will make up the numbers.

Will Team USA surprise or disappoint on home soil?

I don't think they'll disappoint. 'Surprise' is probably the wrong word, because you do tend to see host nations perform particularly well. It's going to be 95% Team USA fans in the stadium. They've got a reasonable group — they're actually favorites to win it at +140. From a bookmaker's perspective, we want the host nation to go as far as possible. For a regulated U.S. sportsbook, it just drives more interest throughout the whole tournament.

What off-the-field factors should bettors be paying attention to?

Being in North America, the one thing I'm watching is weather. Some of these countries will not have experienced the heat and conditions they'll get in the States. Kansas City could see 100 degrees with humidity. Teams have to adapt.

Rain especially has an impact on totals — it leads to more free kicks and penalty opportunities. Driving rain equals goals. Heat can lead to more scoring as well, because attackers are exhausted, and so are defenders. But you're more likely to substitute a fresh attacker than a fresh defender, which pushes toward the over. I'd definitely consider the over in the second half. There's a direct correlation in college football and the NFL between heat and second-half scoring. I see no reason soccer would be different.

How does extra time affect betting strategy in the different rounds?

Soccer is based on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. When you get into the knockout rounds and a match ends in a draw after 90 minutes, penalty kicks determine the winner — but your money-line wager is settled on the 90-minute result, which counts as a draw. So if you want to back a team in the knockouts, you're better off leaning toward a "to qualify" market rather than the money line. That way the draw is out of the mix.

As an England fan, I can tell you from painful experience — we always get penalty shootouts in World Cups. And we usually lose.

Speaking of England — are they cursed?

To their own detriment, yes. They've got to practice penalty kicks, and England is not very good at them. There's this huge weight of expectation the country puts on itself. The Premier League is probably the best soccer league in the world, and it has all the stars. But England never starts a tournament well, they get better as it goes on, and when the chips are down, they can't win the big one. They lost back-to-back European Championship finals. Harry Kane — Mr. Penalty — missed in the last World Cup. There's an intense feeling back home when the World Cup's on. Everyone says, 'We're gonna win it,' and then reality kicks in at the shootout.

What are 1 or 2 teams nobody is talking about that bettors should consider?

Our biggest liability right now is Haiti — at 250-to-1. The same customer keeps betting them, so interesting what he knows that we don't.

Outside of that, you can never rule out Germany. Historically a tremendous team, always well-coached — German efficiency through and through. They're 14-1. Right now there are more tickets and more handle on the USA than Germany, which is surprising. But (Germany) they're the dark horse I'd be watching. Mexico as a host nation can also play — the home field advantage is real.

What are your top three betting tips for the World Cup?

First, be mindful of the round you're betting in. In the first set of group games, teams play not to lose. In the second round of games, the better teams press because a win likely gets them through. And in the third set of group games — be careful. The same result might suit both teams if it gets them both through, and a lot of groups have three teams advance. A low-scoring draw in the final group game can suit everyone.

Second, goals tend to pick up in the second and third rounds of group play. Don't be afraid of overs once teams have something to play for.

Third, in the knockout stages, always be mindful of how extra time and penalty shootouts affect how your bet is graded. Bet the "to qualify" market when you can. The draw at 90 minutes is your enemy.

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