College Football Betting Guide: Odds, Trends To Watch This Season
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LAS VEGAS - The longest season in college football history begins August 29 when North Carolina and TCU meet in Dublin. It ends here at Allegiant Stadium on January 25 with the national championship game.
During that 149-day span, the college football betting season expands - for the first time - into a fully integrated prediction market space. Our College Football Betting Guide looks ahead at it all. Meanwhile. online and retail operators continue to tussle for their share of the action.
Ohio State enters the season as the consensus favorite to leave here with the national championship trophy. The Bucks aim for their second natty in three seasons on the heels of a loss to eventual champion Indiana in the Big Ten Championship. The Buckeyes were bounced by Miami during the Cotton Bowl in the playoffs.
Not surprisingly, Ohio State tops the preseason College Football Coaching Poll. A pair of Heisman contenders power Ohio States's offense. Quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith lead the passing attack. Sayin completed an 77% of his passes for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns as a freshman last season. Smith, named the preseason Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, remains the nation's premier deep threat.
Notre Dame - This Time It's Personal
Perpetually aggrieved Notre Dame and Texas stand as the top choices on the next tier. Notre Dame backers at US betting apps lay bragging rights in that the Irish were the last team to beat Indiana - going back to the 2024 season playoff.
Notre Dame checks in as a consensus +650 choice on OddsJam at No. 2 on the national title board in College Football Betting Guide.
The still-irate Irish and their fanbase do not want to leave their playoff fate to the pollsters this year. Notre Dame saw its playoff hopes wiped out when it fell behind Miami in the final CFP rankings. This season, Notre Dame enters the season as double-digit favorites in 11 of 12 games.
"The disrespect is not real. for Notre Dame," said Sam Panayotovich of Fox Chicago and the "Bear Bets" postcast. Panayotovich and his "Bear Bets" podcast mates spoke at BetBash.
Fox Sports analyst and "Bear Bets" eponymous host Chris Fallica backs the Irish to win it all. "I have a bet on them to win it. You know they are going to be in the college football playoff.. What happened last year is going to drive and motivate those guys. They're motivated," he said.
C.J, Carr & Arch Manning Dominate Heisman Talk
The 2026 Heisman race begins with Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr and Texas quarterback Arch Manning atop the odds board. There's value given each is around +700, but the time to make that play is now, given how volatile this market expects to move week-to-week.
Carr has the cleaner statistical foundation after a strong first season as Notre Dame’s starter, while Manning carries the bigger name, spotlight and more demanding schedule.
Sayin, a 2025 finalist, and Oregon’s Dante Moore offer appealing alternatives on teams expected to contend for the playoff. But they'll need spectacular and unexpected historic seasons (see Fernando Mendoza - Indiana -2025) to break through the Carr/Manning firewall.
Where Is The Money?
Here's a look at the top college football futures markets and where they stand at DraftKings in our College Football Betting Guide.
Where Is The Money
The most-bet college football futures ahead of the 2026 season — each category ranked from favorite to longest shot, with the current odds for each team or player. Odds via DraftKings.
National Championship
ACC Championship
Big 12 Championship
Big Ten Championship
SEC Championship
Heisman Trophy
College Football Betting Guide - 2026 Trends To Watch
Here are some potential trends to look for this upcoming season. Brett McMurphy, a college football insider for On3, warns bettors should avoid looking at substantive trends that pre-date the portal and NIL money.
"Nothing before that matters now," he said.
McMurphy believes the Big Ten - which has won the past three national titles - "will continue to dominate." The edge the SEC once held in building teams through recruiting has evaporated due to NIL money and the transfer portal.
"The Big Ten can legally pay players, where the SEC used to illegally pay players," McMurphy said - with a hint of sarcasm.
Look For Unders In The SEC As Big Ten 'Continues To Dominate'
A primary theme at SEC Media Days - save for Florida coach Jon Sumrall - came in the form coaches lamenting about the toughness of the upcoming schedules throughout the conference.
McMurphy, said this is a sign that even the top teams in the SEC could under perform when it comes to their projected season win totals, and making the College Football Playoff. The consensus over/under on SEC teams to make the 12-team playoff is 3.5. Panayotovich backs Florida to fall under its projected win total of 7.5.
"They're going to beat the hell out of each other," McMurphy said at BetBash. "And there's no more urgency to win (the conference championship)."
Only Georgia and Texas have win totals as high as 9.5. Fallica still likes Georgia to hit double-digt wins. And winning the SEC conference just means less these days. Georgia Coach Kirby Smart said he's willing to give up the SEC having a title game if that meant a better shot at making the playoff in an expanded playoff system. During the past two seasons, the Dawgs win the SEC title only to be knocked off in the playoff prior to the national title. game.
"If you're playing futures on winning the conference, I would not play to win the SEC or to win the Big Ten because neither one of those conferences, if the team is wins 10 games, they're in the playoffs. It's not imperative they win the conference," McMurphy said. "The ACC is different, the Big 12 is different."
Stability Matters - Especially Early In The Season
McMurphy noted that only 12 of the 138 teams that could be bowl eligible are returning their head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and starting QB. Iowa State (8-4) last season returns zero starters this year. Many left with Matt Campbell to Penn State.
"They might be very talented," Fallica said of Penn State" The Lions have an easy Big Ten schedule this season - no Oregon, no Ohio State, no Michigan. "Penn State at +452 to make the playoffs is a helluva bet," Panayotovich said.
Among those 12 teams that fit McMurphy's formula is Minnesota, a team to watch in the Big Ten this season.
"In Week Zero and Week 1, a lot of underdogs win outright," added "Bear Bets" and Fox Sports contributor Will Hill.
Beware of Flat Spots
Two of marquee games this season would be otherwise unheralded matchups in any other season.
On September 19, LSU visits Oxford (LSU -1.5, O/U 57.5). What would usually be an SEC afterthought has morphed into battle straight out of the "The Odyssey." Lane Kiffin's return to Ole Miss has pushed ticket prices into outer earth orbit. And local police have already warned those who congregate in grove to be on their best behavior.
But the key here is what comes next. After reenacting the Battle Of Troy, Ole Miss visits Gainesville and The Swamp the following week. A perfect mark for the Gators, currently +11.5 at BetMGM.
Notre Dame (-10. O/U 54.5) visits BYU on October 17. It's the first game for the Irish at altitude since 2013. McMurphy called it BYU's biggest home game in decades.
Next week? BYU travels to Central Florida to face UCF inside a stadium that doubles as an oven for opposing teams.
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Quitters Never Win - Especially In College Football
As the season progresses, one or two major preseason playoff favorites inevitably find themselves out of the chase before Halloween. No one cares about playing in the Pinstripe Bowl. And NIL checks are cut on the 1st or 15th of the month. The transient nature of college football these days also removes the "play for the other guy" factor that was the norm just a few years ago.
Penn State, Clemson and LSU all began the season in the top 10 but missed the playoff.
"Motivation in college football is so much bigger than in any other sport" McMurphy said. These days, players whose seasons are no longer meaningful in terms of a playoff berth now turn to their next stop, rather than playing through it.
"It's a generational thing, coaches say. Kids play video games. When they lose, they simple reset. It's the same way with many players in college. They just look for a reset," McMurphy said. "Instead of your teammates being guys that you've spent 3 or 4 years with, these are guys that helicoptered in and over the summer that you don't know that well."
Conversely, teams in playoff consideration will seek to run up the score and make a more favorable impression on the playoff committee. (See: Notre Dame)
Fade Heisman Favorites Early & Often
Marcus Mariota remains the last preseason favorite to win the Heisman back in 2014. Heisman favorites often sit precariously a top the odds boards, while the college football nation eagerly awaits them to fall. McMurphy wryly noted that prediction market bettors (or traders) should simply place "no" bids on all of the top 30 Heisman favorites.
"People want to tear them down," McMurphy said. He advised that bettors (or traders) can usually find value mid-way through the season by focusing on players whose teams will make the playoff and carry "good storylines" along the way. He said voters focus on those elements more so than raw stats.
Bettors hunting longer prices should focus on quarterbacks attached to elite offenses and playoff contenders, including Miami’s Darian Mensah and LSU’s Sam Leavitt. The best strategy may be patience: marquee games can reshape this market, creating better prices after one uneven performance without eliminating a contender from the race.
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