College Football Week 12 Best Bets: Big Betting Favorites Feel The Pinch

By Bill Speros Nov 10th, 2025 11:04 AM EST

Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer doesn't care about your betting lines, he's got a national title to win. (USA TODAY)

Oddsmakers caught several of the top teams in college football this past week. Will the run of upsets against the spread continue in our Week 11 College Football Best Bets?

The top five teams in the College Football Playoff Poll all won on Saturday. Indiana rallied to clip Penn State at Happy Valley on a miraculous TD catch in the final minute. That kept the Hoosiers 9-0 straight up. But neither Indiana (-14.5), Ohio State (-28.5), nor Alabama (-12.5) notched covers. Ohio State’s (9-0 SU and 7-1-1 ATS) miss on the line in its 34-10 win over Purdue was its first of the season.

SEC Continues Dance With Parity  

Texas (7-1, 4-1 SEC) this week comes off the bye with a trip to Athens to face Georgia. The Longhorns sputtered to a 2-3 start but have since ripped off 4 straight wins in the SEC. Two of those came at the expense of ranked teams (Oklahoma and Vanderbilt). 

The Sooners, meanwhile, visit Bryant-Denny Stadium to face Alabama. The return of John Mateer to 100% status may have come too late for the Sooners. They carry 2 SEC losses into this matchup. We’re not going all-in on anything concerning the Sooners until we check with that infamous Chipotle employee in Norman.   

There are a half-dozen teams alive in the chase for one of the two spots in the Big 12 championship game. Among the championship hopefuls this week: BYU plays host to TCU, Utah visits Baylorm and Texas Tech entertains UCF.

Week 12 College Football Best Bets: Odds & Picks

Friday, Nov. 14
Clemson at Louisville, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Buzz: Two programs following different tracks meet in the ACC. A possible berth in the conference title game and a long-shot berth in the College Football Playoff remain in the Cards for Louisville. This even after an inexcusable loss at home to a better-than-expected California team. The Doomsday Clock continues to wind down on Dabo Swinney at Clemson. It did slow a bit after the Tigers’ 24-10 win over Florida State. But it resumes at ludicrous speed after the Cards deal themselves and win and cover at home on a chilly Friday night.

Best Bet: Louisville -3.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam 

Minnesota at Oregon, 9 p.m. (FOX)

Buzz: The Ducks received a wake-up call in the first CFB Playoff Poll. Oregon needed nearly the full 60 minutes to escape from the rain and chill of Iowa with an 18-16 win. The Ducks (8-1) failed to meet the number as 4.5-point favorites. Ducks like water. But they’re underwater on the line this season at 5-4. This number tempered a bit after Saturday’s rock fight in Des Moines. This week, Oregon has its way against a lost-in-the-woods Gophers team.

Best Bet: Oregon -23.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam 

Saturday, Nov. 15
South Carolina at Texas A&M, 12 p.m. (ESPN)

Buzz: The Aggies control both sides of the ball better than any team West and South of Columbus. Texas A&M (9-0, 6-0 SEC) has missed the cover 4 times this season, despite its perfect record. The Aggies' defense controls the pace here, and limits the visiting Gamecocks (3-6, 1-6) to perhaps just one trip into the end zone. The Aggies defense flexed on Missouri at Columbia, and allowed just one TD in the 1st three quarters en route to a 38-17 win. Don't see South Carolina getting to 17 here.

Best Bet: Texas A&M -18.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam 

Michigan at Northwestern, 12 p.m. (FOX)

Buzz: As long as Michigan keeps winning and has Ohio State on its schedule, it remains in contention for a spot in the Big Ten championship game. And owns a potential path to the College Football Playoff. Michigan holds the tiebreaker for 3^rd place in the Big Ten against 2 other 5-1 conference teams. However, the 7-2 Wolverines absorbed a lot of betting cash this season. They’ve missed on the number in 7 of 9 games. Northwestern (5-4 SU & ATS) comes home this week after dropping 2 straight SU and ATS on the road vs. Nebraska and USC. A second-half defensive collapse against the Trojans in a 38-17 loss does not bode well for the ‘Cats. But this game has a 10.5-point line and a 40-point total? Something’s got to give.

Best Bet Northwestern +10.5 (-113) DraftKings via OddsJam 

Wisconsin at Indiana, 12 p.m. (BTN)

Buzz: Luke Fickell announced his intention to return to Wisconsin head coach in 2026 on Thursday. His team backed up their coach on Saturday with an impressive defensive performance at home against Washington. The Badgers (+11) took their first lead of the season in the Big Ten en route to a 13-10 victory. Wisconsin has covered 2 straight weeks. Indiana (-14) barely escaped from Happy Valley Saturday with a 27-24 win thanks to a miraculous last-minute TD catch. And despite a 10-0 record SU, Indiana sits 5-5 on the line. Wisconsin keeps the final margin under 4 touchdowns.

Best Bet: Wisconsin +30.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam 

Arizona at Cincinnati, 12 p.m. (FS1)

Buzz: Bearcats. Wildcats. Oh, my! Cincinnati joins Texas Tech and BYU as the lone one-loss teams in the Big 12. The conference may only end up with one team in the CFB Playoff, especially if Texas Tech wins out and takes the conference title. Scott Satterfield’s Bearcats remains in must-win-out mode. They won 7 straight before getting whacked 45-10 by Utah ahead of the bye. Expect the necessary adjustments. Cincy has covered in 5 of 7 games as favorites. Arizona hits the road having secured a bowl berth and looking to play spoiler. A noon ET start doesn’t help the visitors.

Best Bet: Cincinnati -5.5 (-110) DraftKings via OddsJam 

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, 12 p.m. (ABC)

Buzz: The Irish managed to snag the No. 10 spot in the College Football Playoff Rankings when they were released last week, despite just one victory against ranked opponents. Notre Dame sank Navy 49-10 Saturday, grabbing an easy cover on 25.5 points. Unfortunately, the Sisters of the Blind were unavailable this week, so Notre Dame must face the ACC leading Pittsburgh Panthers on the road. The Panthers own all the tiebreakers and rank 1^st of three 5-1 teams in the ACC. If they run the table, they’re in the ACC title game and have hope for a CFB Playoff. This won’t be your typical Notre Dame walkover. The Panthers have won and covered in 5 straight. They’ll keep it close here.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh +10.5 (-105) Hard Rock Bet via OddsJam 

Kansas State at Oklahoma State, 12 p.m. (ESPNU)

Buzz: Oklahoma State may well run the table against its FBS opponents this season – in teams of going winless. The Pokes have dropped 8 straight since beating UT Martin to open the season. They’ve scratched 2 covers, most recently on Saturday in a 38-21 loss as 24.5-point dogs to Kansas. This week, they play host to K-State as 20-point underdogs. The Wildcats covered in 4 straight before getting routed by Texas Tech 43-20 ahead of their bye. K-State needs 2 wins in its final 3 games to snag a bowl bid. They close the season at home against Colorado after heading to No. 13 Utah next week. So, this one lands in the must-win territory. But this number's a bit too steep.

Best Bet: Oklahoma State +19.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam 

West Virginia at Arizona State, 1 p.m. (TNT)

Buzz: Beleaguered West Virginia head coach Rich Rodriguez should keep his job after the Mountaineers scored back-to-back Big 12 wins over Houston and Colorado. West Virginia missed just one cover since the start of October. The Sun Devils scored an impressive victory on the road against Iowa State Saturday. They won and covered in 2 of their past 3 games, and missed the number by a point against Houston. The prevailing trend here is on the total. ASU is 7-2 on the under. An 11 a.m. start in Tempe means a sluggish start for both teams.

Best Bet: Under 47.5 Points (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam 

Oklahoma at Alabama, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)

Buzz: The Crimson Tide stoked visions of the Nick Saban Era Saturday with their 8^th straight victory. But 'Bama missed the cover as 12.5-point favorites in a 20-9 win over LSU. Tide coach Kalen DeBoer owns the haters. QB Ty Simpson may be 3^rd in terms of Heisman Trophy odds at +350, but he’s clearly first in the heart of Alabama fans. Oklahoma’s door to the SEC title game closed with 2 conference losses, but the Sooners are on the fringe of the CFB Playoff berth. A win here pushes them into the poll. Coach Brett Venables makes the Sooners a tough out on the road in the SEC. They've won outright and covered at South Carolina and Tennessee.

Best Bet: Oklahoma +7.5 (-120) ESPN BET via OddsJam 

UCF at Texas Tech, 3:30 p.m. (FOX)

Buzz: The Red Raiders (9-1 SU & ATS) own the best record on the number among all FBS teams. They’ll be moving on up the College Football Playoff Rankings this week after 29-7 trampling of BYU. Joey McGuire doesn’t allow “Trap Games” in Lubbock. UCF will always have its fake national championship. The hosts may well pitch a shutout, at least in terms of allowing touchdowns.

Best Bet: Texas Tech -23.5 (-110) BET MGM via OddsJam 

Virginia at Duke, 3:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

Buzz: Virginia’s Tony Elliott began this season on the “Coaching Hot Seat.” The Cavaliers (8-1, 5-1 ACC) still own 1^st place in the conference despite a turnover-filled 16-9 loss to Wake Forest. QB Chandler Morris left that game after being hit hard in the head and neck on a second-quarter run. Given this number, he’s not expected to play this week. Virginia falls below the water line in the College Football Playoff Rankings with the Wake Forest loss. The focus, for now, shifts to winning without its starting QB. Duke followed a thrilling 46-45 win over Clemson with a ”what-the-heck-happened” loss to UConn. No, this wasn’t in basketball. Virginia struggled without Morris Saturday. They've now failed to cover in 3 of 4 games. Look for both defenses to keep this close. And low-scoring.

Best Bet: Under 59.5 Points (-110) BET MGM via OddsJam 

Georgia Tech at Boston College, 3:30 p.m. (ACC)

Buzz: The Eagles have fallen - to last place in the ACC. BC (1-9, 0-6 ACC) dropped its 9th straight with an embarrassing 45-13 home loss to SMU Saturday. Bill O’Brien’s Eagles have yet to beat an FBS school. BC’s defense ranks 126^th out of 131 FBS teams, giving up 431.7 yards per game, and 128^th in scoring (allowing 34.5 PPG). Still, BC scratched out 4 covers this year and has covered in 2 of 3. Georgia Tech (8-1, 5-1 ACC) owns a share of 1^st place in the ACC. The Jackets come off the bye and a 48-36 loss to N.C. State. They’ve scored 30 or more points in 5 of their past 6 games. But windy, chilly day in Chestnut Hill could limit both offenses.

Best Bet: Under 55.5 Points (-110) BET MGM via OddsJam 

N.C. State at Miami, 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Buzz: The ’Canes will be watching the ACC Championship Game from home, but they’re still alive in the chase for a College Football Playoff spot. If a two-loss Miami and a two-loss Notre Dame sit on the bubble, the Hurricanes should get the nod by virtue of their season-opening win over the Irish. Of course, when it comes to Notre Dame, anything’s possible. Miami ripped off 38 points in the final three quarters against Syracuse in rolling to a 38-10 win as 26.5-point favorites. The Wolfpack need one more win to be bowl eligible. Don’t see it coming this week at Hard Rock Stadium. Miami stumbled at home earlier this season against Louisville. No more slips here. And the Hurricanes will play full-out for 60 minutes.

Best Bet: Miami -14.5 (-105) FanDuel via OddsJam 

Iowa at USC, 3:30 p.m. (BTN)

Buzz: Iowa’s hopes for a College Football Playoff berth washed away in the rain with a 18-16 loss to Oregon. USC (7-2, 5-1 Big Ten) remains in the playoff mix but need help to make the Big Ten Championship Game. A West Coast journey to the mild climes of LA might soothe the Hawkeye's pain, but it’s not necessary the right fix after a soul-crushing defeat at Kinnick Stadium Saturday. USC’s offense ranks 2^nd in FBS in yards (503.2 YPG) and 7^th in points (39.6 PPG). Kirk Ferentz's defense ranks 4^th in FBS in yards (250.2 YPG) and 5^th in points allowed (13.7). The difference here will be USC’s good-enough defense, which limits Iowa ‘s near non-existent offense to low-double digits.

Best Bet:  Under 49.5 Points (-110) BetMGM via OddsJam 

Florida at Ole Miss, 7 p.m. (ESPN)

Buzz: The Lane Train keeps chugging along to a possible playoff berth, if not a spot in the SEC Championship Game. Ole Miss (9-1, 5-1 SEC) sat at No. 6 in the College Football Playoff Rankings before a 49-0 scrimmage against The Citadel. Florida disintegrated in a 38-7 loss to Kentucky. Interim coach Bill Gonzales and the Gators may not win again this season. And the Gators have not covered outside the state of Florida this season. The last time we checked, Oxford was still in Mississippi. 

Best Bet:  Ole Miss -13.5 (-110) BetMGM via OddsJam 

Utah at Baylor, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)

Buzz: The Utes lurked just below the water line in the first College Football Playoff Rankings. Utah (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) comes off the bye and an impressive win over Cincinnati. Utah ranks in the top 10 in both scoring and points allowed. Utah’s depth carries the day here in a lopsided affair. Baylor (5-4, 3-3 Big 12) must wait at least one more week to become bowl eligible.  

Best Bet: Utah -7.5 (-110) Fliff via OddsJam 

UCLA at Ohio State, 7:30 p.m. (NBC)

Buzz: The unbeaten Buckeyes (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) were beaten on the point spread for the first time this season Saturday, OSU failed to cover the 25.5-point spread in a 34-10 win over Purdue, surprisingly giving up a TD in the 4^th quarter. UCLA’s lone bright spot this season came in a 42-37 win over Penn State. Otherwise, the Bruins remain in hibernation against quality opponents. They trailed 28-7 early in the 3^rd against Nebraska before scoring show some points in a 28-21 home loss as 2-point favorites. Matt Patricia’s defense aims for a home shutout this week as 31.5-point favorites. OSU's offense may not stop until the final gun. This one has a 34-3 feel.

Best Bet: Under 48.5 Points (-110) BetMGM via OddsJam 

Texas at Georgia, 7:30 p.m. (ABC)

Buzz: The First SEC Championship Elimination Game of 2025 offers up a rematch of last year’s conference title clash. Georgia won that one 22-19 in OT over Texas. This one sends Texas (7-3, 4-1 SEC) to Athens. Georgia (8-1, 6-1 SEC) covered in 4 of 5 after missing the number in its first 5 starts. Gunner Stockton threw for 264 yards and 3 TDs in Georgia’s 41-21 romp over Mississippi State Saturday. Arch Manning’s season has finally come into focus in Texas. The Longhorns come off the bye and a win over Vanderbilt. A classic “Son Of Saban” matchup has Kirby Smart’s defense facing the offense of former fellow Alabama assistant Steve Sarkisian. This number appears super-sized given this matchup.

Best Bet: Texas +6.5 (-108) FanDuel via OddsJam 

TCU at BYU, 10:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Buzz: The Cougars (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) got the ugly out of their system at Lubbock on Saturday. Texas Tech unleashed a defensive stampede on BYU and rolled to a 29-7 victory. TCU (6-3, 3-3 Big 12) offers must less of an obstacle for the hosts than there in-state brethren did Saturday. BYU’s defense gives up just 18.3 points per game (18^th overall in FBS) and finds its footing again while back home in the mountains.

Best Bet: BYU -5.5  (-110) DraftKings via OddsJam 

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