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Best Bets for NCAA Sweet 16 Top Game on March 27

Two Sweet 16 matchups in the East Region headline Thursday's college basketball slate, with both games carrying significant injury implications. Here's where we see value in the nation's capital. For more info, visit our NCAAB page.

Duke vs St. John's — 7:10 PM ET | NCAAB Sweet 16

Duke enters as the higher seed with championship pedigree, but this spread feels inflated given the Blue Devils' injury concerns. St. John's has proven they can hang with elite competition and the Red Storm's physicality could exploit Duke's depleted frontcourt rotation. Both teams advanced through the first weekend, but the Johnnies have been undervalued all tournament as a double-digit seed still dancing.

🏥 Injuries

🟡 Caleb Foster (Duke) — Questionable, foot fracture, 50-50 to play

🟡 Patrick Ngongba II (Duke) — Questionable, right foot soreness, played 13 minutes vs TCU after 5-game absence

🟡 St. John's — No injuries reported

Pick: St. John's +6.5 — The Blue Devils are dealing with two key rotation pieces banged up, and Foster's potential absence removes a critical ball-handler who averages double figures. Ngongba is clearly not at full strength, managing just 13 minutes in his return. St. John's thrives in physical, grind-it-out games where the total stays under 145, and Duke's 50% health in the frontcourt means fewer second-chance opportunities. In Sweet 16 games since 2015, teams missing a starter or key rotation piece are 14-22 ATS when favored by 6+ points. Take the points with the Johnnies in what should be a possession-by-possession battle.