Fernando Mendoza NFL Draft Odds

Jan 28th, 2026 3:25 PM EST

Fernando Mendoza scored this critical TD to help Indiana win the CFP national title game. (Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times/USA Today Network)

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A few months from the NFL Draft, it’s high time to cast our collective gaze forward towards the promise of the three-day event, which kicks off on April 23 in Pittsburgh.

Ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft, and as part of our NFL betting analysis, the team at Bookies.com developed odds projecting which team will draft Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who declared for the draft on Jan. 23.

Fernando Mendoza 2026 NFL Draft Profile

Team	Odds	Percent Chance
Las Vegas Raiders	-1550	93.9%
New York Jets	+3600	2.7%
Arizona Cardinals	+7050	1.4%
The Field	+4900	2.0%

These Fernando Mendoza NFL Draft odds odds are exclusive to Bookies, where you will also find reviews of the best sports betting apps that you can consult to decide which operator (or operators) fit you best.

Who Drafts Fernando Mendoza?

Given that Mendoza is riding high off the Indiana Hoosiers’ first ever championship in football (and the Heisman Trophy he won along the way), it’s easy to ignore what awaits the former California Golden Bears and IU star.

Mendoza is considered the consensus top pick in the draft, with oddsmakers from FanDuel Sportsbook going so far as to give him -7000 odds of going No. 1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders.

With that in mind, we’re not going to overthink things here.

That’s why we list the Raiders as commanding favorites to get their collective hands on Mendoza. We give -1550 odds that the Sin City squad picks this year’s Heisman winner. That’s close to 94% implied probability at legal sports betting sites.

Should Raiders general manager John Spytek go off script, keep an eye on teams such as the New York Jets (+3600) and Arizona Cardinals (+7050) to swoop in and take Mendoza. Those two NFL cellar dwellers have the second and third picks in this year’s draft.

What Fernando Mendoza Brings to the NFL

Under Indiana football wizard Curt Cignetti’s tutelage, Mendoza went from being a man in the crowd to being the top quarterback in the college game. During his lone season in Bloomington, Mendoza tossed 41 touchdown passes and just six interceptions, racking up 3,535 yards this season.

Those totals overshadowed Mendoza’s two-year output in Berkeley, where he amassed 4,712 yards and 30 TDs combined over two seasons with the Golden Bears. He showed the untapped potential that ultimately inspired Cignetti to grab him out of the transfer portal last offseason.

What followed was a Big Ten championship, the program’s first since 1967, and a perfect 16-0 season culminating in the College Football Playoff championship. IU started the season as +10000 longshots at BetMGM Sportsbook to capture the national title.

In his writeup on Mendoza, ESPN’s Jordan Reid cites the fact that the former Hoosiers star had the nation’s top QBR among college QBs (90.3) and the dual threat potential he unleashed on opposing defenses this fall. Mendoza rushed for 276 yards and seven touchdowns, including his memorable 12-yard plunge into the end zone on fourth down in the CFP title game. That score put Indiana ahead 24-14 and was perhaps the most critical play in helping the Hoosiers beat Miami.

Regardless of which traits NFL teams seek, Mendoza seems to have them in spades. That makes him as close to a no-doubt top pick as you’ll see in any draft class, which is why we’re going with Las Vegas to select Mendoza No. 1 overall on April 23 in the Steel City.

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Fernando Mendoza Q&A

Q: Which team is most likely to draft Fernando Mendoza in the 2026 NFL Draft?

A: According to odds developed by Bookies.com, the Las Vegas Raiders are the overwhelming favorite to select Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza in the 2026 NFL Draft. The Raiders sit at -1550, giving them a 93.9% implied probability, far ahead of the New York Jets (+3600), Arizona Cardinals (+7050) and the rest of the field. The odds show Mendoza as a near lock to land in Las Vegas, which owns the No. 1 overall pick.

Q: When is the 2026 NFL Draft and where can you watch it?

A: The 2026 NFL Draft takes place Thursday, April 23 to Saturday, April 25, 2026, in Pittsburgh. Fans can watch the NFL Draft live on ESPN, NFL Network and ABC, with additional streaming options available through each network’s digital platforms and official apps.

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