6 Steelers-Patriots Prop Bets and Odds to Back on SNF
The Patriots and Steelers are back on prime time, clashing on a national stage for the first time in Foxboro since a 36-17 Patriots win at Gillette Stadium in the AFC Championship Game in January 2017.
The Patriots are coming off another Super Bowl title, their sixth of the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. The Steelers are trying to move past their disappointing 2018, a season marred by locker room division and player discontent.
Along with featuring two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, this showdown also flaunts two of the game’s rising star running backs in New England’s Sony Michel and Pittsburgh’s James Conner.
There are plenty of enticing bets to make for fans of NFL betting. For those of you just here for the picks, here you go:
Steelers-Patriots Best Bets
|Patriots Win 7-12 Points||+420 |
|Under 50.5|| -110|
|Patriots Moneyline & Under||+175|
|1st Scoring Play – Patriots FG||+335|
|Steelers +5.5 & Under||+265 |
|Patriots Moneyline|| -235 |
All odds current as of publication but subject to change.
PICK 1: Patriots Win 7-12 Points
This prop bet is like essentially picking the Patriots to cover the 5.5 spread but maximizing value if you believe the game will be decided by one possession or more.
Two of the last four showdowns between these teams have been decided by seven points. Two of the Patriots’ last three season-opening wins have been decided by seven points.
PICK 2: Under 50.5 Points
You might assume a showdown between two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks would warrant a higher total, but oddsmakers are taking recent history and some personnel changes into account.
For whatever reason, the Patriots haven’t come out of the gates with an explosive offense recently, instead asking their defense to carry the load. In three of their past four openers, they’ve scored under 30 points and their game totals have fallen under 50 points.
Adding to their concern this year is a blood clot issue that will sideline center David Andrews. Nothing threatens to disrupt an offense like the loss of a veteran center. The Pats are also integrating a new left tackle.
In two of their past three openers, the Steelers have only scored 21 points, including last year’s 21-21 tie, and their game totals in season openers have fallen under 42 points for the past two years and under 49 in three of their past four openers.
The Steelers are also working in some new personnel, including a new right tackle and new No. 2 wideout in Donte Moncrief.
PICK 3: Patriots Moneyline
This is the safest pick, and therefore, the pick of least value. But with defending champs at home on prime time, they’re hard to pick against.
The Patriots have won two of their past three season openers at home. Their only loss, a 42-27 defeat in Foxboro to the Chiefs, came when leading receiver Julian Edelman was sidelined all season from an ACL injury. In those two wins, they’ve won each by seven, including a 28-21 win over the Steelers on Sunday Night Football.
The Steelers are opening their season on the road for the fifth straight year. They mustered a 21-21 tie last year in Cleveland, before the Browns had moved onto Baker Mayfield. They opened the season against the Patriots in Foxboro in 2015 and lost, 28-21.
From a historical viewpoint, last year’s Steelers 17-10 win over the Patriots in the regular season doesn’t bode well for their chances of another win Sunday. They haven’t beaten New England in consecutive games since scoring victories over the Pats in 1997 and 1998.
PICK 4: Patriots Moneyline & Under
Picking the Patriots in the moneyline won’t bring back much of an ROI, but there’s decent value in a Patriots win parlayed with the under.
For aforementioned reasons, this opener has the feel of a close Patriots win that doesn’t light up the score board. Despite last year’s Patriots loss to the Steelers, the Patriots are the better team and they’re home, so the bet is safer.
PICK 5: First Scoring Play – Patriots FG
Laying money on the Pats to score first at home is always a good idea. Laying money on the Pats to score first thanks to a 3-pointer by four-time Pro Bowl kicker Stephen Gostkowski is even better, especially with those odds.
PICK 6: Steelers +5.5 & Under
While most of these picks have advocated taking the Patriots, the 5.5 spread could be inviting for those who are more confident in the Steelers and prefer to maximize the underdog value.
There isn’t good value in simply picking the Steelers to cover the spread (-110), but there’s much better value for parlaying the Steelers and the under. The Steelers beat the Patriots last year and fell by 3 to the Patriots in 2017, so there’s some history here that could instill confidence.