Mark Strotman for Bookies.com

By Mark Strotman | | 4 mins

Stephen Curry MVP Odds Dip – Should You Grab Them Or Wait?

Stephen Curry MVP Odds Dip – Should You Grab Them Or Wait?

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It took just two games for oddsmakers – and just about anyone watching the Golden State Warriors – to bury Stephen Curry and his MVP chances. Given +800 odds to begin the season – trailing just Luka Doncic (+400) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+450) – that number fell sharply to +1600 in NBA futures markets after Golden State suffered a 26-point loss to the Nets on opening night and a 39-point loss to the Bucks on Christmas.

That 0-2 hole looked like the end of the road for the Warriors, given their lack of Klay Thompson and a supporting cast that was laughably outplayed. Curry’s pedestrian numbers – 19.5 points and 8.0 assists in 29.5 minutes – weren’t exactly anything to write home about, and oddsmakers took notice.

But something happened after Christmas Day. And those same oddsmakers are lagging on moving Curry’s odds back to where they should be, providing short-term NBA betting value.

Market Pick Best Odds
NBA - Awards - Most Valuable Player (reg. season)
Stephen Curry
Stephen Curry

Check out the latest NBA MVP odds from top online sportsbooks.

Curry Is Back To Old Self

It had been a while since we saw the old Curry. His 2020 season lasted five games and he topped 25 points just once. And even in those first two games of 2021, he was 4-of-20 from beyond the arc and a -49 in games the Warriors lost by a combined 47 points.

Since then, he’s looked like …well … an MVP. Beginning with a 36-point effort against the Bulls, Curry is averaging 37.0 points on 50% shooting and 40% from deep, 5.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists in more than 34 minutes per game. He has topped 30 points in four of those games – he had 26 in the other – and stole the spotlight on Sunday when he poured in a career-high 62 points in a win over the Blazers.

Perhaps it’s Draymond Green’s return, or Curry simply needed more than two games to get back to where we expected him to be. Either way, it has happened. Curry is in an excellent rhythm, and his shot attempts will continue to surge with Thompson out of the lineup – Curry’s 21.3 field goal attempts per game are a career-high. The MVP-type numbers are here to stay.


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Warriors Back To Their Winning Ways

Of course, Curry’s numbers won’t mean much if the Warriors can’t string together some wins. It takes a special season for a player on a non-elite team to win MVP. The good news is the Warriors, though no longer a dynasty, are playing better basketball since their embarrassing start.

Golden State has won four of its last five games, including most recent wins against Portland and Sacramento, and is seventh in net rating in that span.

The offense looks elite – led by Curry, of course, but others have chipped in – and Green has been the engine to make the Warriors go. In his three games, Golden State is 2-1, and Green is a +35 in the Warriors’ last two games despite scoring just 6 points. His presence makes all the difference for Golden State, especially without Thompson.

Rookie of the Year favorite James Wiseman continuing to play well doesn’t hurt, either. The 19-year-old had his first double-double in Curry’s 62-point outing, and he has blocked two shots in each of Golden State’s last four games.

Plenty of Value With Curry NBA MVP Odds

So, what should bettors do? The smart play is to hop on Curry’s MVP odds now. A quick glance at the schedule shows Golden State playing four of its next five games on national television, all against contenders. The national conversation is only going to grow as Curry continues his hot shooting.

If the Warriors can stay competitive in those games and squeeze out a few more wins, Curry’s odds will be shortening in no time. They certainly won’t get any better than +1600.

It helps, too, that no player has really established himself as the frontrunner like Antetokounmpo did the past two seasons and James Harden did early in 2018. It’s anyone’s trophy to win right now, and the combination of Curry’s play and his lagging odds makes him as good a bet as anyone. Grab the best odds at DraftKings.

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