Genesis Invitational 2026: PGA Tour Picks and Leans For This Week

By Bookies.com Staff

Feb 18th, 2026 7:17 AM EST

Woods hosts the annual PGA Tour stop (USATODAY)

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Another week in the books, another Scottie Scheffler scare just narrowly avoided. Now the PGA Tour heads to Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational, a welcome sight for a couple reasons.

Last year's event was played at Torrey Pines due to the L.A. fires, which means we haven't laid eyes on Riv since Hideki Matsuyama's epic final round to win in 2024.

Plus, we got to hear from tournament host Tiger Woods, who hinted at being ready to compete at The Masters in April and also gave kudos to Anthony Kim's comeback win for the ages on the LIV Tour.

This golf betting season, Bookies.com continues to provide analysis from a variety of experts across the space, including leans on first round leaders, longshots, top 20s, matchups and much more.

How's your 2026 golf card looking so far? Check out insight from a variety of sources below before you head to your favorite U.S. sports betting app.

What To Know About Riviera

The Kikuyu & Poa Challenge: Riviera is one of the few courses on Tour featuring Kikuyu grass fairways and rough. This spongy turf causes the ball to sit down, making distance control and spin nearly impossible from the rough. Combined with notoriously bumpy Poa annua greens, players face some of the lowest Greens in Regulation percentages all season.

The Iconic (and Diabolical) 10th Hole: Widely considered the best short par-4 in the world, the 315-yard 10th is a strategic masterpiece. While driveable for the entire field, the narrow, sloping green is surrounded by deep bunkers. A player can just as easily make an eagle as they can a double-bogey, forcing a high-stakes risk vs. reward decision right at the start of the back nine.

A "Thinker’s" Layout with New Length: The course has been lengthened to 7,383 yards for 2026, most notably at the par-3 4th (now 273 yards) and the uphill 18th. Because the fairways are canted and firm, bombing it isn't enough; players must shape shots both ways to hold the fairways and find the correct halves of the greens to avoid impossible three-putts.

Now let's pick 'em!

Genesis Invitational Winner Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Tommy Fleetwood +2200

Fleetwood has played Riviera four times and, while they have been spaced out, he's gotten better every time. Experience matters there. He tied for 10th last time in 2024, and he has become a far more accomplished player in the ensuing two years. Fleetwood made his 2026 PGA Tour debut just last week. But he had been active on the DP World Tour throughout the fall -- winning once with two other podium finishes -- and into January. He tied for fourth at Pebble Beach.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Tommy Fleetwood +2200

He's steadily improved at this event the last three years (T20, T10, T5) and finished T4 at Pebble Beach last week after a slow start overseas to begin the year. Fleetwood's worst finish on U.S. soil dating back to the U.S. Open is a T4.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Tommy Fleetwood +2200

Is there an echo in here?

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Scottie Scheffler +320

Back-to-back weeks, Scheffler has come from behind on Sunday to grab Top 5 finishes and put pressure on the leaders. While Scottie has never won here, he has finished T10, T12 and T7 in his last 3 trips to Riviera. We are getting a good price based on his form & just hope he starts better on Thursday this time out.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Rory McIlroy +1300

I think Scottie Scheffler’s “struggles” last long enough to keep him out of the winner’s circle for at least another week, opening the door for Rory to grab his first victory at Riviera. McIlroy's final round 64 at Pebble (that very much went under the radar) is giving me good vibes as the PGA Tour moves south this week. Winning at top venues is a top priority for Rory at this stage of his career, so I expect him to be locked in and playing well enough to lift another trophy.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Rory McIlroy +1300

The Stars Are Out for Tiger’s Tournament in what’s the final West Coast stop on the PGA Tour this year. Two Supernovas dominate the odds board at FanDuel: Scottie Scheffler (+320) and Rory McIlroy (+1300). Both closed well last week, but Rory fixes those doubles this week and gets the trophy from his BF.

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Genesis Top 20 Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Sahith Theegala +225

Theegala is one of the ironmen on Tour so far this season, having played in all five events and now a sixth. He didn't qualify for the Genesis, but Tiger Woods granted him the Charlie Sifford exemption, so the former Pepperdine star plays on. He's had two top-10s and a top-20 in his comeback from an injury-marred 2025. Theegala still has issues getting his driver in the fairway but his wedge-putter game has been outstanding. This will be his fifth go-round at Riviera, with a best of T6 in 2023. Don't discount the gesture from Woods -- nobody wants to disappoint Tiger.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Jake Knapp +106

Knapp is making his PGA Tour debut at Riviera but played collegiately nearby at UCLA. Has been on a strong run of form to begin the season: four starts, all in the top 11.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Sepp Straka +128

Sepp has fired 7 straight rounds in the 60s dating back to round 2 of the Waste Management. Last week's backdoor T2 should carry over nicely.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Viktor Hovland +120

Don’t get me wrong, the driver is highly concerning right now for Viktor. But until last year, Hovland finished in the Top 20 in the previous 4 years. And on top of that, he has gained true strokes on approach in 9 consecutive events to rank 6th in the field.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Justin Rose +132

The 45-year-old came back down to earth finishing T37 last week at Pebble Beach after his dominant victory at Torrey Pines, and hasn’t played at Riviera since 2023, when he missed the cut. What am I trying to say? I think his revived form in 2026 will play well back down in Southern California, and the plus money here should be taken advantage of.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Xander Schauffele -135

OK, Scottie Scheffler in the Top 20 is -800. We’ll go with Xander Schauffele at -135. A decent return on as close to a near-guarantee in this market as you can get.

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First Round Leader Bets

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Viktor Hovland +3800

Not sure Hovland can sustain it for all four rounds, but he does have the goods to come out of the gate hot. He is ranked 11th on Tour in SG: Approach despite ranking outside the top-150 in driving distance. He's also putting very well -- for him, at least. He's ranked 67th in SG: Putting, but is 30th from inside 10 feet -- a key stat this week on the bumpy poa of Riviera. Hovland has two top-5s and two top-20s in his four trips to Riviera.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Min Woo Lee +3800

An elite player off the tee and around the greens. Riviera should play right into his hands. Just a shot outside a playoff at Pebble Beach.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Scottie Scheffler +1075

I like the value here rather than outright to win. The current narrative is Scheffler's first rounds are holding him back (73 at WMPO, 72 at Pebble). He tends to make narratives like that look very silly in short order.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Ryan Fox +7000

A two-time PGA Tour winner last year is coming off a pair of T-24s to start his season in the U.S. Fox has a strong history of getting off to fast starts with over 5+ rounds of 67 or better last season.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Sam Burns +3700

The five-time PGA Tour winner was one shot off the first round lead last week at Pebble Beach, and was right in the thick of it on Sunday, falling just a few strokes shy of Collin Morikawa to finish T6. In 2021, Burns tied the 36-hole scoring record at Riviera with rounds of 64 and 66, before finishing one stroke outside a playoff. I like Burns to stay hot coming out of Pebble, and shoot up the leaderboard on Thursday.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Tommy Fleetwood +3000

He finished T10 here two years ago. He knows the course well.

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Genesis Longshots

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Tony Finau +13500

Finau is in on a sponsor invite -- not technically from Tiger Woods but kinda/sorta, and you don't want to screw that up. So far in 2026, it's been all or nothing for Finau -- two top-20s and three missed cuts for a helluva full house. His best result was a T11 at the Torrey Pines, which at least mirrors Riviera more than the other West Coast or Hawaii tracks. Finau has had great success at Riviera, with a pair of runners-up in 2018 and '21 and top-20s in the past two editions there. We know his game has fallen off since then. Sometimes, a return to past success is the needed oomph.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Ryo Hisatsune +9800

Another debut at Riviera, but coming off three straight top 10s.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Tom Hoge +22000

T8 at AmEx, T14 at Pebble last week. Hoge has played well at Riv in years past as well with an 8th place finish in 2024 and T14 in 2023.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Sahith Theegala +10500

Theegala’s recent form has been very strong with two Top 10s in his last 3 tournaments. He has been a fantastic Poa putter and always pops on this set of events, he has strong history at Riviera and he has flashed with his long irons - which are important at this track.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Ryo Hisatsune +9800

Give me the hot-handed 23-year-old Japanese phenom here, who has rattled off T2, T10, and T8 finishes the past three weeks. Hisatsune also beat out Burns for the first round lead at Pebble an opening 62. Sure, this is his debut at Riviera, which is the toughest PGA Tour course he’s played this season, but I still like the nearly +10000 odds here.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Wyndham Clark +8000

Clark finished T8 here 5 years ago. Perhaps he can rekindle some of his past magic. At this price, why not give it a shot.

Recent History at Genesis Invitational

Who's Who In Bookies Golf Roundtable

Len Hochberg has covered golf for RotoWire since 2013. A veteran sports journalist, he was an editor and reporter at The Washington Post for nine years. Len is a three-time winner of the FSWA DFS Writer of the Year Award (2020, '22 and '23) and a five-time nominee (2019-23). He is also a writer and editor for MLB Advanced Media.

Josh Carpenter covers golf and sports media for Sports Business Journal, having been with the publication since 2012. Away from the office, Josh loves playing golf and spending time with his wife Amy and son, Walt. He is an avid supporter of the Carolina Hurricanes and Tennessee Volunteers.

Thomas Leary is a senior editor with Gambling.com Group who works across a variety of the company's portfolios, including Bookies.com. Previously, Thomas spent over six years at Sports Business Journal where he helped launch the digital newsletter division. He is a Charlotte, NC native and long-suffering Hornets fan.

Jared Kimble is a media manager with Gambling.com Group who oversees the group's North American digital PR efforts. Jared previously worked for the Orlando Magic. A Pennsylvania native, he is an Elon University graduate and currently resides in Charlotte, NC.

David Rumsey is a reporter at Front Office Sports, focusing on golf, college football, and the NFL. He has a B.A. in Communication Studies from Southern Adventist University in Chattanooga, Tenn. David is based in Charleston, S.C.

Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.

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