Groundhog Day Odds: Will Punxsutawney Phil Predict More Winter or Early Spring?

Jan 30th, 2026 1:41 PM EST

2SBAY1C Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., Sunday, Feb. 2, 2025. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (AP Photo/Barry Reeger)

Before Super Bowl 60 kicks off on Feb. 8, the other Big Game next week takes place in Punxsutawney on Monday. Millions will turn toward this small town in Western Pennsylvania – immortalized by Bill Murray – and ask about Groundhog Day odds and "Will Punxsutawney Phil Predict More Winter or Early Spring?

Groundhog Day and Groundhog Day are both an annual event – depending on your streaming service and DVR capacity. In Punxsutawney, the throngs gather to see if Phil will see his shadow amid the early-morning network TV floodlights. Or he simply keeps up, and then returns to hole.

If Phil “Sees His Shadow,” legend has it that we’re all in line for more 6 more weeks of winter. If he does not, that harkens an early spring.

Given the Old Testament freeze gripping much of the nation and talk of a “Bombogenesis” moving up the East Coast, most hope the skies are cloudy in the Keystone State come Groundhog Day this year.

What Are The Odds Of Punxsutawney Phil Seeing/Not Seeing His Shadow

Bookies.com developed odds projecting if Punxsutawney Phil will or will not see his shadow on Monday, February 2, 2026, therefore predicting a longer winter or an early spring.

Punxsutawney Phil 2026 Odds

Outcome	Odds	Percent
Sees His Shadow	-450	81.8%
No Shadow	+450	18.2%

Groundhog Day Long Tradition Continues This Year

According to the Pennsylvania Department of Community & Economic Development. “Punxsutawney Phil” emerges for the 140th year in 2026 to share his prognostication with the world. Per tradition, a huge crowd will be led by about a dozen members of Phil's "Inner Circle," a group of men in top hats who organize the event each year at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney.

Last year, Phil predicted 6 more weeks of winter. The newspaper "The Punxsutawney Spirit" reported that the first recognized Groundhog Day celebration in Pennsylvania occurred on Feb. 2, 1886. Phil first appeared on the front-page in 1908, and was first photographed in 1913. Phil’s longest streak of seeing his shadow runs 21 years (1913-33). Phil took a year off in 1943 during World War II.

Groundhog Day Odds: Q&A:

1. What are the odds of Punxsutawney Phil predicting an early spring in 2026?

A: Bookies.com odds indicate Punxsutawney Phil is expected to see his shadow on Groundhog Day 2026. The “Sees His Shadow” outcome is listed at -450, implying an 81.8% probability that Phil will predict six more weeks of winter. Meanwhile, the chance of an early spring—when Phil does not see his shadow—comes in at +450 (18.2%).

2. How does Bookies.com calculate Groundhog Day odds for Punxsutawney Phil?

A: Bookies.com creates Groundhog Day odds by analyzing Punxsutawney Phil’s historical predictions and converting them into implied probabilities using sportsbook-style pricing. For 2026, the odds reflect a strong expectation that Phil will see his shadow, projecting a prolonged winter rather than early spring.

3. Has Punxsutawney Phil been accurate with his Groundhog Day predictions?

A: Punxsutawney Phil’s accuracy has been debated for decades, but Groundhog Day odds remain a popular novelty market. For 2026, Bookies.com odds suggest high confidence in a winter extension, with Phil seeing his shadow priced at -450 (81.8%), compared to +450 (18.2%) for an early spring.