Kalshi Trades More Than $472 Million On Masters Champion; Approaches Super Bowl Winner Total

By Bill Speros

Apr 12th, 2026 10:26 PM EDT

Kalshi handled more than $459 million in trading volume for its The Masters Champion market as market settled Sunday after Rory McIlroy's victory. McIlroy captured his second-straight Green Jacket with a one-shot win over Scottie Scheffler. McIlroy joins a group that includes Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, and Tiger Woods.

The final total after McIlroy's title-clinching putt on No. 18 eclipsed the $459,72 million mark. That number approached the prediction market's $500 million handle in its "Pro Football Championship" market in February - also know as Super Bowl 60.

McIlroy's price stood at 49 cents to win $1 during Round 3 on Saturday and he opened at 70 cents on Sunday.

By the 6th hole of the final round, his price had cratered to 15 cents as he trailed Cam Young by 2 shots. Young's price, meanwhile, peaked at 40 cents.

McIlroy clawed back 37 cents following the 10th hole, as he stood tied with Justin Rose. His numbers also rose on the second nine, as he took a share of the lead for the final time on No. 11.

Earlier Sunday, one Kalshi trader just put $100,372 on Young to not win The Masters. Assuming that person held their position until the end of the tournament, the trade paid $135,638 for a profit of $35,266.

Masters Capped Big Week For Kalshi In Court

The green rush Sunday capped a significant week for Kalshi - one bookended by a pair of wins in federal court. The dubs began stacking on Monday when a federal appeals court denied New Jersey's bid to ban Kalshi from offering sports-event contracts in the Garden State.

A federal judge on Friday temporarily blocked Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction market operators, halting a criminal case Arizona had brought against Kalshi.

U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi canceled a scheduled Monday arraignment, where state prosecutors had alleged Kalshi was operating an illegal gambling business. The order stems from a lawsuit backed by the Trump administration.

In his ruling, Liburdi said the Commodity Futures Trading Commission made a sufficient showing that “event contracts” qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act — and is likely to succeed in arguing that federal law preempts Arizona’s gambling statutes.

Super Bowl Game Total Surpassed $500 Million

Kalshi traded more than $914.6 million on Super Bowl 60, figures on the prediction market showed. That includes more than $615 million in game-outcome related trades, and another $275 million on outcomes concerning the halftime show, TV commercials, and celebrity appearances.

Following Seattle's 29-13 victory over New England, the site's "Pro Football Champion" market surpassed the $500 million figure. Some trades on the site were delayed in being posted during the game, Kalshi said, but trades were executed in real time.

The final number posted following the game stood at $500,171,547. That market opened in February 2025 after NFL Super Bowl 59. Kalshi saw a 2700% increase over Super Bowl 59 in trading volume this year. The platform said it handled more than $1 billion in trades in a release. But a breakdown of all the available markets on Kalshi's Super Bowl hub totaled less than $915 million.

In the two weeks following the AFC and NFC Championship Games, the platform booked more than $350 million in trades in its Super Bowl-winner market.

In addition the platform booked $52,221,340 in trades in its Super Bowl MVP market, Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III won that award. He traded around 19 cents to win $1 it at kickoff. The market opened on January 9.

Trading Volume Does Not Equate To Sports Betting Handle

Prediction markets like Kalshi are considered Designated Contract Markets under federal law and are governed by the CTFC. Users in these platforms buy or sell outcomes while trading against others who have the opposite positions. Prediction markets use so-called "market makers" to initially seed a certain market. Prices, however, as based on what someone on the other side of the trade is willing to pay. Most prediction markets take a certain percentage of each trade -- usually between 1-2% depending on the price of a position.

Because they are regulated by the CFTC, they do not have to pay state taxes on their income. And they are no subject to oversight by any state gaming regulators.

Sports books, meanwhile, post static odds and operate as the "house," taking the wagers and the full risk themselves. A 2018 Supreme Court decision determined that sports betting can be legalized and regulated on a state-by-state basis. Currently, 39 states (plus Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico) have legalized sports betting.

Alex Kane, who founded the sports-trading platform Sporttrade, said a good guide to measure sports betting handle vs. prediction market volume is roughly 5-to-1. So $100 million in prediction market volume would equate to roughly $20 million in sports betting handle.

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