Kentucky Derby Still Comes Up Roses For DraftKings' Johnny Avello - And We've Got His Pick To Win It, Too

By Bill Speros

May 1st, 2026 2:00 PM EDT

When Johnny Avello ran the Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook, his Kentucky Derby bettors always came out smelling like a rose. Even if they didn't cash a single ticket. Avello gifted each of his female patrons a deep-red blossom to mark horse racing's biggest day. And that aroma filled the room.

And these weren't the $15-a-dozen roses that are for sale along the road to your in-law's house on Mothers' Day. Or the BOGO bouquets at the local grocery store.

"We used to pack them in for Derby. I mean, we just had so many people there just to come over for the race. The ladies would be dressed up, with the men, to the nines. And I would give out roses that day," Avello told Bookies.com Thursday. "I would order like 300-500 roses and I would personally hand them out to all the ladies in the room. And so to me, that was kind of a special day to be able to go around and do that. And I can't tell you how much that they appreciated it. And they were great roses because I got them from our at the Wynn. We didn't do anything cheap."

'The Best Horse Race To Bet In Our Country'

Avello spent more than 30 years working in books on and off the Las Vegas Strip, He has served as the of director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings since 2018. Saturday's 152nd Kentucky Derby will be his 42nd behind the window.

His favorite thus far: 1994

In that race Avello backed Go For Gin, who paid $20.20 on a $2 bet to win.

The Derby hasn't lost its luster in his eyes, even in this age of online sports betting and betting apps.

"It's the best horse race to bet in our country. And the reason for that is there's 20 horses. The pools are as big as they can get. In today's world in horse racing, we're seeing a lot of races that are five, six, or seven horses. This race is special because it creates a lot of value in some of those pools if you can connect the right horses," Avello said.

4 Horses To Watch In The Kentucky Derby Saturday

Avello sees four horses to that could win this, and he recommends using one of them to anchor your ticket, then look for longer odds on a potential trifecta or superfecta for a big payout. Of course, one should only wager what they can afford to lose and never chase their losses.

Those horses (listed with post positions and odds):

• 1. Renegade 5-1
• 6. Commandment 7-1
• 12. Chief Wallabee 9-1
• 18. Further Ado 7-1

"Those four horses will probably be somewhere between 9-2 and 7-1. Those horses will take quite a bit of action, but there's some outsiders that always get played. There's 12-1 to 40-1 horses in this race that odds don't deserve to be that high. That can surprise, that can be in the trifecta, that can be in the superfecta. And that's where you have to look when you're betting this race if you're betting exotics," Avello said. "Even if you get a favorite in there with a 40-1 shot and a 12 to one shot, you get trifectas that pay in the thousands. So it's really a race to make a big score. If things fall right, that is.,"

How WIll The Kentucky Derby Unfold On Saturday

Avello believes the eventual winner Saturday will hang back for most of the race, but not too far behind.

"The Derby's one of those races where you can get in a lot of trouble. Even though you've got the best horse, your horse can get banged around. Even if you get a decent start, if you get banged around or you can't get through a certain area that you want to get through, you've got so much horse, but you can't get through and make the move," Avello said. "It's always better to be closer to the pace. So I would look for any horses that are in that top. Besides the couple that go to the front, any horse that's sitting somewhere in the next four or five, that's where I would expect the winner to come from."

Can Renegade Break The No. 1 Post Jinx

Although he could well enter the race as the betting favorite, Renegade runs from the dreaded No. 1 post position. No horse has won from that spot since Ferdinand in 1986.

"Irad Ortiz is arguably the best jockey in the game. Todd Pletcher is certainly one of your top five trainers. Renegade doesn't have early speed, so Irad will try to get a position, but I don't think he'll let him go all the way to the back. Instead, try to stay somewhere in the eighth to 12th spot, and then as the race unfolds, make your move and try to get through - or come up the rail - one of those two, depending on how the race shapes up," Avellos said. ".He's the favorite. So the one post is not keeping people away from him."

No matter which horse draws the No. 1 post, that position can be daunting.

"There's a wall of horses on the outside of you. And so if you don't maneuver yourself to get into a position to have a chance to win the race later, you could find yourself 17th. You could find yourself near the back of the pack ,and then you have to circle the entire field and that's really difficult," Avello said.

And The 152nd Kentucky Derby Winner Is. . . .

Of those four horses Avello likes with the best change to win all those roses, his pick for this day is Further Ado. The chestnut colt boasts the highest speed figure with his 11-length Blue Grass Stkaes victory and won at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old. Jockey John Velazquez has three Derby wins and rides Further Ado for the first time. And trainer Brad Cox won't be swayed by the No. 18 post.

"He's got a couple horses in front of him that will probably try to get good position near the front. And so with that said, Johnny Velasquez will try to get a position where he can sit maybe fifth or sixth. If he can do that, then he's got himself set up to make a late run," Avello said. "I'm going to probably use that horse with and sprinkle in some other 30-1 and 40-1 shots to try to increase the payoff on a trifecta. So I have fun with the race. I mean, I've hit some, I've lost more than I've hit, but when you do hit, it's pretty exciting."

And the roses aren't so bad, either.

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