Are Bookies Overlooking Sadio Mane For EPL Top Goalscorer?
The 2018/19 Premier League season saw the first three-way tie for the Golden Boot for 20 years.
The award was shared by Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Sadio Mané and Mohamed Salah, who each bagged 22 league goals.
Premier League Top Goalscorer Odds
|Player||Odds (Fraction)||Odds (US)||Odds (Decimal)||Probability|
Salah and Aubameyang are deservedly next in line in the market. But what about Mané?
Remarkably, the Senegalese hotshot is only eighth favourite for the Golden Boot, and can be backed at as much as 25/1 (+2500) with Bet365.
Are the bookies missing a trick here?
It certainly looks that way when you compare his goal scoring record to Salah’s in 2019.
⚽ Goals scored in 2019:— Bookies UK (@bookies_uk) August 15, 2019
Sadio Mane - 18
Mohammad Salah - 12
📈 Despite this, Mane is 25/1 to be the Premier League top scorer this season while Salah is just 5/1
Are bookies overlooking Mane?
And it’s not just Salah who Mané is in front of either. Liverpool’s number 10 has scored more Premier League goals than any other player this year.
Mané has netted 14 league goals in 2019, just ahead of Aguero on 13, Vardy on 12, and Aubameyang, Perez and Salah on 10.
So why don’t the bookies fancy Mané’s chances? A look at the underlying expected goals statistics may provide the answer.
For instance, Salah has netted 10 goals this year from chances worth approximately 9.5 expected goals. Aguero’s 11 goals have come from opportunities valued at 10.6, and Vardy’s 12 from 10.3.
But Mané has only had chances worth 9.9 expected goals but scored 14 from them. He has been running hot in 2019, and the sportsbooks clearly don’t think he can maintain it across the whole of the 2019/20 season.
Mané Off The Mark
He’s already off the mark in all competitions, as he bagged both Liverpool goals in their Super Cup victory over Chelsea. And expected goal models are based on the average conversion rate of those chances; the top strikers should over achieve.
The Reds seem to have picked up where they left off in 2018/19 too, scoring four against Norwich in their opening league game. Mané should be supplied with plenty of high-quality chances this season.
The main issue ahead of him may be fatigue.
Mané played throughout the summer in the Africa Cup of Nations, and appeared in the final which took place just three weeks before Liverpool’s first league match. He will surely need a rest at some point during 2019/20.
But at 25/1 (+2500) to win the Golden Boot, Mané is capable of upsetting the odds once again. He has a much better chance than the 3.8% probability his current odds suggest, surely?