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Are Bookies Overlooking Jamie Vardy For EPL Top Goalscorer?

Andrew Beasley for Bookies.com

Andrew Beasley  | 3 mins

Are Bookies Overlooking Jamie Vardy For EPL Top Goalscorer?

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The front runners in the Premier League Golden Boot market are all familiar names, and all play for the traditional big six clubs.

Sergio Aguero is currently the top scorer in the division, with eight goals, and is the 3/1 (+300) favorite across the board. The Argentine is so consistent – had he scored against Everton last weekend, he’d have become only the fourth player ever to score in eight successive Premier League appearances. When he plays, he usually scores.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Tammy Abraham are only a goal behind Aguero in the current standings. The former took a share of the prize last season, alongside Sadio Mané and Mohamed Salah, so definitely has the pedigree, and can be backed at 5/1 (+500).

Abraham has started the season very well, but can he maintain it until May? He’s currently 16/1 (+1600) if you think he can.

But it’s Harry Kane – who is currently three goals adrift – who is second in the betting at 4/1 (+400). The Tottenham talisman has won two Golden Boots since Aguero last did, and has the advantage of being Spurs’ main goal threat while Manchester City have numerous options.

Premier League Top Goalscorer Odds

PlayerOdds (Fraction)Odds (US)Odds (Decimal)Probability
Sergio Aguero3/1+3004.0025%
Harry Kane4/1+4005.0020%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang5/1+5006.0016.7%
Mo Salah6/1+6007.0014.3%
Raheem Sterling7/1+7008.0012.5%
Sadio Mane12/1+120013.07.7%
Tammy Abraham16/1+160017.05.9%
Jamie Vardy25/1+250026.03.8%

Odds correct at time of publication.

However, there’s someone who the market is overlooking, who could make the bookies look somewhat foolish: Leicester City’s Jamie Vardy, who can be backed at a massive 25/1 (+2500) with Bet365.

The England international is in a similar boat to Kane. He is currently three goals behind Aguero in the standings and he is his team’s unquestioned number one goal scorer.

Vardy may not have won a Golden Boot before, but he finished just one goal behind Kane in the Foxes’ unforgettable title triumph in 2015/16.

He also hit the 20-goal mark in 2017/18, though it’s Vardy’s recent form under his current manager which suggests he has a legitimate chance of becoming the top flight’s top scorer this season.

Since Brendan Rodgers took charge of Leicester in March, Vardy has scored 14 goals in the Premier League, in just 17 appearances.

That’s more than any other player has mustered in that period, with Aubameyang and Sadio Mané his closest competitors on 12 each. Vardy’s side have been the third best team in the Premier League in that timeframe too, showing how well Leicester have been doing under Rodgers.

The Foxes travel to face the European champions at Anfield this weekend, but that won’t daunt Vardy. He has scored seven goals against Liverpool in his career, with Arsenal the only team he has netted against more times.

Vardy loves taking down the big boys, and this may give him an edge in his pursuit of a first Golden Boot.

About the Author

Andrew Beasley for Bookies.com
Andrew Beasley
Andrew Beasley is a widely published football writer. His love of stats provides him with plenty of insight which can be applied to betting.