March Madness Picks & Best Bets 2026 NCAA Championship: UConn vs Michigan (April 5)
UConn faces Michigan Monday night in the National Championship Game. The Wolverines demolished Arizona 91-73 in a match-up of top-seeds Saturday. That rout followed UConn's 71-62 upset over Illinois. The early line made Michigan as 7.5-point favorites. UConn can nab its third "One Shining Moment" in four years with a win and seventh overall. Michigan won its lone natty in 1989.
After checking the latest college basketball odds, be sure to check our March Madness Picks & Best Bets below as the tournament concludes.
Recent NCAA Tournament history has been very kind to No. 1 seeds. UConn enters the national title game as a No. 2 seed.
In all, 17 of the past 25 and 7 of the past 8 national champions were No. 1 seeds. The most recent exception was Connecticut in 2023. Those Huskies entered the tournament as a No. 4 seed. Of course, UConn proceeded to win back-to-back national titles as Danny Hurley kept the bulk of his team intact.
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Want a bigger dog than the 2023 Huskies – in terms of seeding – to win a national title? You’ll have to go back to the 2014 UConn Huskies. Those pups were a No. 7 seed before running the table and cutting down the nets at Jerry World. Those Huskies were +9500 to win the Tournament.
Three No. 3 seeds have won the Tourname since 2000, and one No. 2 seed has won during that time.
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Game-By-Game Predictions
Here are our March Madness Picks & Best Bets. All betting lines via OddsJam. At least one bettor at DraftKings wants UConn to finish the job.
Final Four - Monday, Indianapolis
National Championship Game
2 UConn vs. No. 1 Michigan
8:50 p.m. | TBS
Michigan -7.5
Michigan -290
UConn +235
O/U 144.5
Best Bet: UConn +7.5 (-110) (DraftKings via OddsJam). Death. Taxes. UConn in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies Monday could win their 3rd national title in 4 years, a feat not accomplished since the Golden Age of UCLA from 1969-72. The Huskies have never lost a national championship game, winning six times (1999, 2004, 2011, 2014, 2023, 2024). More importantly, UConn under coach Dan Hurley stands 18-1 ATS in the Big Dance. And while UConn remains underwater on the number (17-22) this season, it has covered in four straight tournament games. The underdog Huskies won outright over Duke (+4.5) in the Elite Eight and Illinois (+1.5) Saturday night to earn their berth in the title tilt. UConn freshman Braylon Mullins earned “Mr. Basketball” honors last year playing for Greenfield Central High School. Saturday, he dropped the dagger on Illinois with a 3-pointer to ice the Huskies’ 71-62 upset. That came after his near-buzzer-beater 3-pointer crushed the baby blue hopes of Duke. UConn brings balance (Alex Karaban, Solo Ball, Tarris Reed Jr., Silas Demary Jr., and Mullins) into Monday’s title game. And the Huskies continue to get points from benevolent oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, $222,219,852 has been traded in its national championship market since October. Michigan stands at 74%, while UConn rests at 26%. Before Saturday, Arizona was the favorite to win it all. at 32%. Meanwhile, 28.23% of the ESPN brackets have Michigan as the winner.
Michigan (-1.5) demolished Arizona Saturday in a battle of top seeds, showing the same mettle it's carried all season. The Wolverines have beaten their five March Madness opponents by an average of 21.4 points, averaging 94.4 point. They bring balance, versatility, and physical ferocity. Yaxel Lendeborg may not be 100% Monday, but he'll play. The line moved from 6.5 to 7.5 points following Michigan's all-around dominance. All signs point to Michigan's first national title since 1989. But UConn has been in this spot before. The Huskies are 6-0 straight up and ATS in their previous six national title appearances. UConn - given its balance and tenacity - merits better than this number. Take the points, as UConn covers. And perhaps it cements the first college basketball dynasty of the 21st Century in the process.
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First Round Scores
March 19 - Round of 64
TCU 66, Ohio State 64
Nebraska 76, Troy 47
Louisville 83, South Florida 79
Michigan 101, Howard 80
High Point 83, Wisconsin 82
Duke 71, Siena 65
Vanderbilt 78, McNeese 68
Michigan State 92, North Dakota State 67
Arkansas 97, Hawai'i 78
VCU 82, North Carolina 78
Texas 79, BYU 71
Texas A&M 63, Saint Mary's 50
Illinois 105, Penn 70
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March 20 - Round of 64
Saint Louis 102, Georgia 77
Gonzaga 73, Kennesaw State 64
Houston 78, Idaho 47
Kentucky 89, Santa Clara 84 (OT)
Texas Tech 91, Akron 71
Arizona 92, Long Island University 58
Virginia 82, Wright State 73
Iowa State 108, Tennessee State 74
Alabama 90, Hofstra 70
Utah State 86, Villanova 76
Tennessee 78, Miami (Ohio) 56
Iowa 67, Clemson 61
St. John's 79, UNI 53
Purdue 104, Queens 71
UCLA 75, UCF 71
Florida 114, Prairie View A&M 55
Kansas 68, Cal Baptist 60
Miami (Fla.) 80, Missouri 66
UConn 82, Furman 71
Second Round Scores
March 21 - Round Of 32
1 Michigan 95, 9 Saint Louis 72
3 Michigan State 77, 6 Louisville 69
1 Duke 81, 9 TCU 58
2 Houston 88, 10 Texas A&M 57
11 Texas 74, 3 Gonzaga 68
3 Illinois 76, 11 VCU 55
4 Nebraska 74, 5 Vanderbilt 72
4 Arkansas 94, 12 High Point 88
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March 22 - Round Of 32
9 Iowa 73, 1 Florida 72
2 Purdue 79, 7 Miami (Fla.) 69
2 Iowa State 82, 7 Kentucky 63
5 St. John's 67, 4 Kansas 65
6 Tennessee 79, 3 Virginia 72
4 Alabama 90, 5 Texas Tech 65
1 Arizona 78, 9 Utah State 66
2 Iowa State 82, 7 Kentucky 63
Region Semifinal Scores
Thursday - Sweet 16
1 Arizona 109, 4 Arkansas 88
3 Illinois 65, 2 Houston 55
2 Purdue 79, 11 Texas 77
9 Iowa 77, 4 Nebraska 71
Friday - Sweet 16
Duke 80, St. John's 75
Michigan 90, Alabama 77
UConn 67, Michigan State 63
Tennessee 76, Iowa State 62
Regional Final Scores
Saturday - Elite Eight
3 Illinois 71, Iowa 59
1 Arizona 79, Purdue 64
Sunday - Elite Eight
1 Michigan 95, Tennessee 62
2 UConn 73, 1 Duke 72
National Semifinal
2 UConn 72, 3 Illinois 61
1 Michigan 91, 1 Arizona 73
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Schedule
Here are our key March Madness Picks & Best Bets key dates to mark on your calendar and upcoming schedule:
- National championship game: Monday, April 6
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March Madness Picks & Best Bets: What The Sportsbooks Say
Patrick Berbert, College Basketball Trader at Caesars Sportsbook, checked in with Bookies.com before the tournament night. Here's what he had to say.
On Overall Expectations For The Tournament:
We’re expecting a fairly chalky tournament this year, similar to what we saw last season. The NIL era has really widened the gap between the top programs and the rest of the field. From a betting standpoint, we’re projecting record engagement again. College basketball has been a phenomenal product all season, and the television ratings reflect that, as it was reportedly the most-watched regular season ever.
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Betting Stats: March Madness Picks & Best Bets
March Madness: Major Title Bets Of Note
- $100,000 to win $600,000 on Purdue to Final Four
- $77,000 to win $1,000,100 on UConn +1300
- $50,000 to win $450,000 on Houston +900
- $50,000 to win $225,000 on Arizona +450
- $25,000 to win $225,000 on UConn +900
- $25,000 to win $275,000 on Houston +1100
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March Madness Picks & Best Bets: All-Time Longshots To Win
Going back to the expansion of the field to 64 teams in 1985, here's a look as the longest pre=tournament odds for the NCCA winner.
| odds | YEAR | Team | SEED | FINAL OPP. | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +9500 | 2014 | UConn | No. 7 | Kentucky | 60-54 |
| +3500 | 1985 | Villanova | No. 8 | G'town | 66-64 |
| +2500 | 2011 | UConn | No. 3 | Butler | 53-41 |
| +2000 | 1988 | Kentucky | No. 6 | Oklahom | 83-79 |
| +1800 | 1997 | Arizona | No, 6 | Kentucky | 84-79 (OT) |
| +1600 | 2023 | UConn | No. 4 | San Diego | 76-59 |
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Betting Trends To Watch
Here's a look at some trends and history surrounding the March Madness top seeds:
- Most times seeded No. 1: North Carolina (18)
- All four No. 1 seeds made Final Four: Twice (2008, 2025)
- No No. 1 seeds made Final Four: Four (1980, 2006, 2011, 2023)
- Championship games featuring two No. 1 seeds: 11 (1982, 1983, 1999, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2015, 2017, 2021, 2024, 2025)
- Championship game featuring no No. 1 seeds (modern era): Eight
- Only team to beat three No. 1 seeds: Arizona (1997 - beat No. 1 Kansas in Elite Eight, No. 1 North Carolina in Final Four, No. 1 Kentucky in championship game)
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March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Best Finish By Seed
In all the No. 1 see has won 26 national championships since the NCAA Tournament expanded to its current (legitimate) 64-team field in 1985,
| SEED | BEST FINISH | TIMES |
|---|---|---|
| No. 1 | National Champion | 26 |
| No. 2 | National Champion | 5 |
| No. 3 | National Champion | 4 |
| No. 4 | National Champion | 2 |
| No. 5 | Runner-up | 4 |
| No. 6 | National Champion | 1 |
| No. 7 | National Champion | 1 |
| No. 8 | National Champion | 1 |
| No. 9 | Final Four | 2 |
| No. 10 | Final Four | 1 |
| No. 11 | Final Four | 6 |
| No. 12 | Elite Eight | 2 |
| No. 13 | Sweet 16 | 3 |
| No. 14 | Sweet 16 | 2 |
| No. 15 | Elite Eight | 2 |
| No. 16 | Second round | 2 |
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