Next College Football Coach Fired in 2026: Updated Odds, Buyouts and Betting Angles
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The College Football Season enters Week 6 with some familiar names facing uncertain futures as the CFB Coaching Hot Seat fumes and First College Football Coach Fired Odds continues to evolve.
Our board remains in flux. This week, the new favorite is an old favorite: Rutgers' coach Greg Schiano. One outlet claimed "he may not make it through the weekend." Rutgers' season took another wrong turn Saturday with a 47-15 loss to defending national champion Indiana.
Why the Scarlet Knights chose the Hoosiers for their homecoming opponent remains one of life's mysteries, buried alongside the government's alien files.
It's lost just the heat, it's the humiliation.
Blown leads have becone a pattern across the board, fanning the flames in South Carolina, Maryland, and Colorado.
College Football Hot Seat: Temperatures Fall In Waco, Madison
Temperatures continue to slide in Waco and Madison. Baylor Coach Dave Aranda remains unbeaten in the Big 12, with victories over Colorado and Arizona State. Luke Fickell and the Wisconsin Badgers began their Big Ten play with back-to-back victories (Penn State & Michigan State). Both coaches effectively removed themselves off the board after four-game and two-game winning streaks, respectively.
College Football Hot Seat: Full Board
These are hypothetical, editorially-modeled odds — not a live sportsbook line — built from preseason hot seat ratings, buyout math, and in-season results. Sources: CBS Sports 2026 Hot Seat Rankings, ESPN, team athletics sites, and game recaps.
First College Football Coach Fired in 2026: Updated Odds
Hypothetical, editorially-modeled odds — not a live sportsbook line. Rutgers' Greg Schiano reclaims the top spot after a 47-15 Homecoming loss, while Baylor's Dave Aranda and Wisconsin's Luke Fickell cool off hard on the back of blowout wins.
1Greg SchianoFAVORITERutgers · Big Ten · 1-4+18035.7% implied ▾
Reclaims the top spot. Rutgers was "overmatched in every aspect" of a 47-15 Homecoming loss to Indiana — the AD's vote of confidence from last week already looks shaky. One outlet's blunt assessment: "this is a lost cause," adding that with a bye week next, Schiano "may not make it through the weekend." That's the strongest language anyone has used about any coach on this board all season.
2Mike LocksleyFAVORITEMaryland · Big Ten · 2-3+26027.8% implied ▾
Jumped out to a 16-7 lead at Nebraska, then got outscored 41-7 the rest of the way in a 48-23 loss — the same slow-motion-collapse pattern that sank the UCLA game. Still carries the cheapest buyout tracked on this board, around $9 million. Locksley says he needs no assurances about his job; the fanbase and Scott Van Pelt both publicly disagreed this week.
3Shane BeamerFAVORITESouth Carolina · SEC · 2-3+50016.7% implied ▾
A third straight loss, and a particularly painful one: up 20-10 at the half against No. 24 Kentucky, South Carolina let it slip away in a 35-34 overtime defeat. Now 0-3 in SEC play. A national college football podcast spent a full segment this week on whether South Carolina will actually move on from Beamer. The 2030 extension is real, but the pattern of blown leads is becoming the story.
4Deion SandersFAVORITEColorado · Big 12 · 2-3+90010.0% implied ▾
A third straight loss, this one at home to No. 10 Texas Tech after Colorado led 7-3 at the half. Four turnovers on four straight possessions turned a competitive game into a rout. Sanders insists "the score is not indicative of who we are," but after wins over Northwestern and Baylor turned into losses the weeks before, the losing streak itself is now the headline.
5Barry OdomCONTENDERPurdue · Big Ten · 2-3+16005.9% implied ▾
Drops out of the top tier after finally getting a signature result: a 24-17 upset of Illinois, Odom's first Big Ten win and first win over a power-conference opponent at Purdue. It doesn't erase the 3-10-then-1-3 arc, but it buys real time, and the schedule (Minnesota, Washington) offers two more realistic chances in October.
6Derek MasonCONTENDERMiddle Tennessee · C-USA · 2-3+20004.8% implied ▾
Blanked 55-0 by Kansas in a non-conference game that was over by halftime. An ugly loss on its own merits, and the kind of result a small-buyout Group of Five program doesn't tend to let slide for long.
7Mike NorvellCONTENDERFlorida State · ACC · 3-2+32003.0% implied ▾
Drops out of the top tier after FSU's best win since 2023: a 38-7 demolition of Virginia, with Ashton Daniels running for five touchdowns. One game doesn't erase the AD search or the season's earlier struggles, but it lowers the temperature heading into a trip to a reeling Louisville team, with Miami still looming after that.
8Dave DoerenCONTENDERNC State · ACC · 3-2+40002.4% implied ▾
Beat Louisville 31-28 behind a career-high 373 passing yards and two touchdowns from CJ Bailey. Per one outlet's recap, Doeren has "taken himself off the immediate hot seat list" entirely — this is now viewed as an end-of-season decision at the earliest, not an in-season one.
9Dabo SwinneyCONTENDERClemson · ACC · 4-2+45002.2% implied ▾
The Miami game answered the question: No. 4 Miami won 41-13 in Death Valley, Clemson's signature chance of the season, and the Hurricanes' defense had six sacks and nine tackles for loss. Four wins against modest competition don't mean much after a loss like this one. The $57M-now-vs-$60M-in-2027 buyout detail is unchanged.
10Bill BelichickCONTENDERNorth Carolina · ACC · 2-2+55001.8% implied ▾
More going on here than the 37-26 loss to No. 3 Notre Dame. UNC's season has been shadowed by a staff investigation: GM Michael Lombardi resigned in September, and defensive coordinator Steve Belichick — Bill's son — is resigning Oct. 27 following a probe into drug-related allegations. The investigation concluded the issues were "isolated" and "not a systemic failure," which actually removes UNC's leverage to fire Belichick for cause. Athletic director Steve Newmark and the chancellor have publicly backed him, but one insider's quote cuts the other way: "If it was anyone but Belichick, they'd be gone."
11Lance LeipoldCONTENDERKansas · Big 12 · 2-2+60001.6% implied ▾
Blanked Middle Tennessee 55-0, putting up more than 700 yards of offense. Same caveat as always: most coverage still treats Leipold as far from a real hot-seat case, and a result like this only reinforces that.
12Lincoln RileyCONTENDERUSC · Big Ten · 4-1+60001.6% implied ▾
New to the board, and similar to Leipold: showing up on multiple fresh hot-seat lists despite a winning record. Riley escaped with an ugly 25-20 home win over Washington after a loss to Oregon the week before, and he's now 5-15 against ranked opponents at USC with zero CFP appearances on a $110M contract. The case here is about return on investment and "player antics raising questions about team leadership," not results — pressure, not real danger, with Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA still ahead.
13Dave ArandaLONGSHOTBaylor · Big 12 · 4-1+80001.2% implied ▾
Routed Arizona State 55-19 to move to 4-1 (2-0 Big 12), Baylor's fourth straight win since the Week 1 Auburn loss. About as complete a reversal as any coach on this board has had all season.
14Luke FickellLONGSHOTWisconsin · Big Ten · 4-1+80001.2% implied ▾
Routed Michigan State 31-3 on the heels of the upset over Penn State — back-to-back dominant results. This is a completely different coach than the one sitting at 1-1 five weeks ago.
15Scott SatterfieldLONGSHOTCincinnati · Big 12 · 4-1+100001.0% implied ▾
First loss of the season, 34-7 at Arizona, snapping the 4-0 start. Still nowhere near a real hot-seat case at 4-1, but worth a line since the perfect record is gone.
16The FieldLONGSHOTAny Other FBS Coach+100001.0% implied ▾
History shows a surprise midseason firing at a program outside the preseason radar happens almost every year — last year it was Trent Dilfer at UAB.
Sources: CBS Sports 2026 Hot Seat Rankings, ESPN, team athletics sites, game recaps. Updated Oct 5, 2026.
Greg Schiano (Rutgers): Dark Knights In New Jersey
Schiano and Rutgers got smoked by Indiana Saturday. On Homecoming Weekend, no less.
Schiano's buyout — about $17.3 million, paid as roughly three-quarters of his remaining salary — is far cheaper than what the other top names on the board would cost to remove. And it gets even smaller if he takes another job. The 28-point loss to Indiana on Homecoming Weekend only stoked the Hot Seat flames.
Mike Locksley (Maryland): Terps Shellshocked In Big Ten
The Terps have yet to find their Big Ten football footing. Maryland led Nebraska 16-7, then was outscored 41-7 the rest of the way in a 48-23 loss — essentially the same collapse as the UCLA game two weeks ago. Mike Locksley's buyout of about $9M remains the lowest on the board. That keeps him up high on our board.
Shane Beamer (South Carolina): Game Of Chicken Continues
South Carolina's eighth straight loss loss to an SEC opponent and 12th in its last 14 against Power Four teams came at the hands of Kentucky. South Carolina blew a 20-10 lead in that one. One national college football podcast spent real airtime this week on: "Will South Carolina move on from Beamer?" The 2030 extension, however, serves as a de facto insurance policy for now. Beamer's buyout stands at $27.9M now, but falls to $22.1M after December.
Deion Sanders (Colorado): Buffs Past Their Prime?
Colorado has dropped three straight — 41-7 at Northwestern,; 23-13 at Baylor in the Big 12 opener; and 29-7 to Texas Tech. The Buffaloes and Deion Sanders remain not ready for prime time or any afternoon spot. This time, they turned a 7-3 halftime lead into a 22-point loss thanks to four straight turnovers. Sanders 18-24 in four seasons, down sharply from a 9-4 debut year. Buyout is about $25.5M now, dropping to $17.25M in 2027. An actual in-season firing remains unlikely, with a mutual, post-season parting seen as the more realistic path. Sanders' health could become a factor here, as well.
Barry Odom (Purdue): Boilermakers Lower Heat
Barry Odom and the Boilermakers toppled Illinois Saturday 24-17 in a Big Ten shocker, breaking a run of 10 losses in their past 13 games. The Buyout stays at roughly $24.75M but is declining.
Derek Mason (Middle Tennessee) — Don't Panic . . . Yet
Coach Derek Mason and his Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders absorbed a 55-0 beating at the hands of Kansas. A bad week, but not a new level of danger. A relatively small Group of Five buyout keeps him on ut board.
Mike Norvell (Florida State): Heat Setting Lowered To Medium
FSU logged its biggest win in two seasons Saturday, stuffing Virginia 38-7 in Tallahassee. Ashton Daniels ran for five touchdowns. But Coach Mike Norvell and the Seminoles still face ACC foes Louisville and Miami in October. Norvell's precise buyout number is about $48 million if fired now, dropping only to $45.6M after the season, since he's owed 85% of remaining salary. The AD search remains open. Rumblings of a Jimbo Fisher return continue to reverberate across the Florida Panhandle. However, Fisher would have to work for minimum wage - or close to it.
Dave Doeren (N.C. State): 'Off The Immediate Hot Seat List'
North Carolina State coach Dave Doeren has "taken himself off the immediate hot seat list" with a 31-28 win over Louisville and a career-high passing day from C.J. Bailey. We'll revisit him in the offseason.
Dabo Swinney (Clemson): Hurricanes Flood Death Valley
Dabo Swinney's time as the King of the ACC has clearly passed. The Tigers are toothless against college football's Big Dogs. No. 4 Miami rolled 41-13 at Mini-Death Valley Saturday. That stood as Clemson's signature chance to reclaim its conference throne. The Tigers got mauled, allowing six sacks and nine tackles-for-loss. Four wins against lesser competition don't mean as much after this. Buyout math unchanged.
In terms of the buyout, Clemson would pay less to fire Swinney now, during the 2026 season, than to wait until his contract's next tier kicks in for 2027. There's been nothing reported or hinted in that direction. But the option is thee.
Bill Belichick (North Carolina): Can Bill Buy Time in Chapel Hill?
Bill Belichick's GM Michael Lombardi resigned in September, defensive coordinator Steve Belichick (Bill's son) is resigning Oct. 27 (officially) after a drug-related investigation. The probe's "isolated, not systemic" finding actually removes UNC's leverage to fire Belichick for cause. School leadership has publicly supported him, but use the insider quote — "If it was anyone but Belichick, they'd be gone" — to show the internal frustration underneath that public support. Meanwhile, the Tar-Heels got tossed into the wood-chipper in the second half by Notre Dame in a 37-26 loss.
Lincoln Riley (USC): Trojan Hearse In LA?
USC and Lincoln Riley are a deceptive 4-1. But the Trojans have enjoyed a soft schedule, front-loaded with four home games and one road game at Rutgers. Riley carries a $110M contract, the No. 1 recruiting class, and zero CFP appearances. He's, now 5-15 against ranked opponents at USC. An ugly 25-20 win over Washington followed a loss to Oregon, and "player antics raising questions about team leadership" have been part of the coverage. USC needs wins over two of the following - Ohio State, Indiana, UCLA - for Riley to sell this season as a success.
Lance Leipold (Kansas): Jayhawks Face Big 12 Headwinds
Lance Leipold's Kansas Jayhawks tuned up for thieir Big 12 run with a 55-0 rout of Middle Tennessee. Things may get heated in Lawrence with upcoming back-to-back conference games against Utah and Kansas State.
Scott Satterfield (Cincinnati): Hot Seat Gets Plugged In
The Cincinnati Bearcats wandered off in the Arizona desert, losing 34-7 after a 4-0 start. One more loss in the Big 12 and these kitties are done.
Luke Fickell (Wisconsin) & Dave Aranda (Baylor): The Big Chill
The Hot Seats belonging to Wisconsin Fickell's and Baylor's Aranda have gone stone cold. Wisconsin trailed then-No. 13 Penn State 17-0 and won 24-20 on a 72-yard fourth-quarter touchdown. The Badgers followed that with a win over Michigan State Dave Aranda's Bears notched their fourth-straight win, trashing Arizona State 55-19.
First College Football Coach Fired Odds: Frequently Asked Questions
Has any FBS coach actually been fired in 2026?
No. Through Week 5 none of the coaches on the preseason or updated hot-seat boards have been dismissed. The earliest realistic firing window for the top names is generally viewed as November, once buyout math shifts further in each school's favor
Why did Greg Schiano become the favorite again after getting a vote of confidence?
Rutgers' athletic director publicly backed Greg Schiano in late September, but a 47-15 home loss to Indiana the following week undercut that support. One outlet described it as a potential season-ending result for his tenure, calling the situation "a lost cause."
Why is Mike Locksley considered a top candidate to be fired first?
It's less about the record than the cost. Maryland could move on from Mike Locksley for roughly $9 million, the cheapest buyout of any coach commonly listed on 2026 hot-seat boards — far less than the $17–48 million range carried by the other top names. Combined with a 54-3 loss to UCLA and no supporting statement from the school, that combination is why he tops the list.
Is Bill Belichick's job actually in danger at UNC?
Not in the way some reports have suggested. An internal investigation into North Carolina's football program — which led to a general manager's resignation and defensive coordinator Steve Belichick's upcoming departure — concluded the issues were isolated rather than systemic, which removes grounds for UNC to fire Bill Belichick for cause. School leadership has publicly supported him, though some people close to the program have privately expressed frustration with that decision.
Why is Lincoln Riley on a coach-fired list despite a winning record?
USC is 4-1, but Lincoln Riley is 5-15 against ranked opponents since arriving with a $110 million contract and has yet to reach the College Football Playoff. The pressure is about return on investment and off-field conduct questions, not his current record.
Is Deion Sanders on the hot seat at Colorado?
Colorado has lost three straight games and Deion Sanders is 18-24 over four seasons, down from a 9-4 debut year. Most coverage treats an in-season firing as unlikely; a mutual parting after the season is viewed as the more realistic scenario if the losing continues.
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