Next NFL Head Coach Fired: Odds & Hot Seat Tracker

By Bill Speros

Sep 16th, 2026 4:15 PM EDT

Burrow and coach Zac Taylor face great expectations this season (USATODAY)

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The Opening Week of the NFL season tied the all-time record for points in Week 1. It reignited the NFL Coaching Hot Seat and shifted our Next NFL Head Coach Fired odds. Temperatures rose in Carolina, Tampa Bay and Indianapolis. The Panthers, Bucs and Colts allowed combined 133 points in their losses. That’s not the start desired by coaches Dave Canales, Todd Bowles and Shane Steichen.

The 59-37 beatdown delivered by the Bears to the defending NFC South champion Panthers at home stunned all who watched. The Panthers allowed over 40 points just once last season, and allowed just 21.1 points per game, including the postseason. A similar shock rattled Lucas Oil Stadium as the Colts allowed Lamar Jackson (324 yards passing) and Derrick Henry (144 yards rushing) to operate with minimal resistance in a 41-23 loss. Both Canales and Steichen will certainty jettison their defensive coordinators if these outcomes become trends.

The names that topped our board heading into the season: Aaron Glenn of the Jets, Zac Taylor in Cincinnati, and Phillys Nick Sirianni all won in Week 1. Those victories merely tamped the flames. A full-blown NFL Coaching Hot Seat conflagration remains forever one loss away in the Big Apple and City Of Brotherly Love.

Next NFL Head Coach Fired: 2026 Odds Chart

Here are the Bookies.com odds on the next NFL coach to be fired. These odds are for informational purposes only and not available on any legal U.S. sportsbook or prediction market platform.

Coaching Hot Seat Updated Sept. 15, 2026

Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds

Hypothetical odds on which NFL head coach exits first this season, built from preseason pressure rankings, Week 1 results, and contract situations.

All Favorites Contenders Longshots

32Teams Tracked

10Coaches Fired in '25

+450Current Favorite

Wk 1Board Reflects

Todd Bowles Favorite

Buccaneers · 4th season

+45018.2% implied ▼

Tampa Bay's defense — Bowles' calling card — got shredded for 33 points in a Week 1 loss to Cincinnati. He's 35-33 over four seasons with one NFC South title, and the division was a three-way tie at 8-9 last year. Another middling start puts real pressure on ownership.

Week 1 Loss Defense Collapse Signed Thru 2028

Shane Steichen Favorite

Colts · 4th season

+47517.4% implied ▼

Ownership called this a make-or-break year with a healthy Daniel Jones, then Indy opened with a 41-23 blowout loss in Baltimore. Steichen is 25-26 through three seasons without a playoff berth — tied for the most wins by a coach without October football to show for it.

Blowout Loss No Playoffs Since 2020 Ownership Ultimatum

Dan Quinn Favorite

Commanders · 3rd season

+52516.0% implied ▼

Entered the year as the preseason favorite on most hot-seat lists after a 5-12 collapse, and a close 22-24 loss to Philadelphia in Week 1 didn't cool things off. Quinn overhauled both coordinators this offseason — usually a sign a coach is making his last stand.

Preseason No. 1 Lost To Rival New Coordinators

Aaron Glenn Contender

Jets · 2nd season

+60014.3% implied ▼

Glenn opened his second season with a 23-10 win over Tennessee after a 3-14 rookie year — the worst debut record in Jets history. The win buys him breathing room, but a roster overhaul and a 15-year playoff drought mean the leash is still short if New York slides back.

Won Opener Worst Debut Record 15-Yr Drought

Zac Taylor Contender

Bengals · 8th season

+85010.5% implied ▼

Cincinnati opened with a win over Tampa Bay, but Taylor remains a fixture on hot-seat lists with a contract that runs through 2027 and three straight missed playoffs despite Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. Another stumble later in the year would revive the conversation fast.

Won Opener 3 Yrs No Playoffs Contract Thru '27

Brian Schottenheimer Contender

Cowboys · 2nd season

+11008.3% implied ▼

Dallas opened with a 20-28 loss to the Giants after a 7-9-1 debut season. Jerry Jones has been publicly patient so far, but back-to-back non-playoff years would be new territory for a franchise that expects to compete every fall.

Opening Loss Jerry Jones Watch 2nd Season

Dave Canales Longshot

Panthers · 3rd season

+13007.1% implied ▼

Carolina's 59-37 Week 1 loss to Chicago was one of the worst results around the league. Bryce Young is entering Year 4 as the litmus test for this staff, and owner David Tepper has shown little patience for slow rebuilds in the past.

Ugly Week 1 Loss Bryce Young Yr 4 Tepper Impatience

Nick Sirianni Longshot

Eagles · 5th season

+22004.3% implied ▼

Philadelphia beat Washington in Week 1 and enters the year as a Super Bowl contender, but owner Jeffrey Lurie has a track record of surprise changes even after good seasons — he moved on from Doug Pederson a few years removed from a title. Anything short of deep January football keeps Sirianni's name on these lists.

Won Opener SB-Or-Bust Owner Precedent

The Field Longshot

Any other NFL head coach

+28003.5% implied ▼

Ten teams made head-coaching changes for 2026 — nearly a third of the league. In-season firings can come out of nowhere, and a 17-week season leaves plenty of time for a name outside the current top eight to land here first.

17-Week Season Anything Can Happen

Hypothetical odds for entertainment purposes only. Not affiliated with any sportsbook. Updated Sept. 15, 2026 — reflects Week 1 results.

Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds: The Favorites

The issues that sunk the Bucs’ pirate ship in the Ohio River Sunday were particularly irksome for Bowles. Franchise QB Baker Mayfield fumbled the ball three times. Each turnover led to the Bengals scoring. The Bucs defense played on its heels the entire game. But still couldn’t make the stops when necessary.

At Indy, Steichen’s offense proved easy to subdue thanks to the limitations of Daniel Jones. It’s too easy to load up against Jonathan Taylor and force Danny Dimes to deliver top dollar.

Meanwhile, Dan Quinn remains a mystery, wrapped around an enigma, surrounded by a dilemma. All we need is the deep-fried corn shell. The Commanders hung with the Eagles at the Linc for nearly 60 minutes. On a potential game-tying two-point try late in the fourth quarter, Jayden Daniels somehow managed to avoid getting the ball to Terry McLaurin, Stef Diggs, or keeping it himself.

The narrative hanging over Quinn remains the same: Can he get his teams over whatever proverbial hump they happen to face.

Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds: The Contenders

The last Jets coach NOT on the NFL Coaching Hot Seat was Weeb Eubank. His team won Super Bowl III some 57 years ago. Glenn – who played for the Jets some 30 years ago - knows this as well as anyone. Glenn's win came after the worst rookie-season record in Jets history. That doesn’t include Bill Belichick – who went 0-0 in both his rookie seasons coaching the team.

Gang Green lines up against Green Bay Sunday afternoon at MetLife.

The paper bags remain in the closet – for now.

Taylor may finally have a defense worthy of Joe Burrow. The Bengals showed tooth and claw Sunday in their opening win over Tampa Bay. The NFC North is open. Can the ‘Cats finally walk back through the pet door?

Brian Schottenheimer could be coach for life in Dallas – Jerry Jones’ life, that is – if he remains in the good graces of the Cowboys owner. Losing to the Giants in Week 1 wasn’t part of the plan. When you become Cowboys’ coach, however, a pair of asbestos pants comes with the job.

Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds: The Longshots

There were 10 NFL coaching changes ahead of this season. That means nearly a one-third of the league is no real position to make a move this year unless catastrophe (see Jerod Mayo in New England) hits.

Sirianni’s seat cooled significantly once A.J. Brown left Philly if only because it lessened the tension in the locker room. Jalen Hurts delivered with his legs against Washington. The biggest concern would be an injury to the franchise QB – especially once that occurred because Hurts forced a play with his legs.

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Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds: FAQs

Q: Which NFL coach is most likely to be fired first in 2026?

A: Todd Bowles is currently the favorite at +450 (18.2% implied probability). Tampa Bay's defense — long his calling card — was shredded for 33 points in a Week 1 loss to Cincinnati, and he's 35-33 across four seasons with only one NFC South title to show for it.

Q: Has an NFL coach been fired already in 2026?

A: No head coach has been fired during the 2026 season so far. Ten coaches were let go following the 2025 season and offseason — one of the largest coaching turnovers in NFL history — which is part of why so many first- and second-year coaches sit near the top of this year's board.

Q: Why do coaching odds change after Week 1?

A: Sportsbooks and bettors weight recent results heavily, so a blowout loss moves a coach's odds more than a full offseason of speculation. Carolina's 59-37 loss to Chicago and Indianapolis's 41-23 loss in Baltimore are good examples — both reshaped this week's board more than any preseason hot-seat list did.

Q: Is Todd Bowles on the hot seat with the Buccaneers?

A: Yes. Bowles enters his fourth season with a 35-33 record and one division title, and a Week 1 defensive collapse against Cincinnati only added to the pressure. He's currently the favorite to be the first NFL head coach fired in 2026.

Q: How many NFL head coaches were fired last season?

A: Ten head coaches were fired following the 2025 season, tying one of the largest single-cycle coaching turnovers in NFL history. That churn is a big reason this year's hot-seat board is so heavily populated with coaches in Year

Odds are hypothetical and built from a combination of preseason hot-seat rankings (CBS Sports, FOX Sports), Week 1 game results, public contract and ownership reporting, and Bookies.com editorial judgment. Updated weekly through the season. For entertainment purposes only — not associated with any sportsbook.