Next NFL Head Coach Fired: Odds & Hot Seat Tracker

By Bill Speros

Oct 13th, 2026 3:26 PM EDT

Next NFL Head Coach Fired: 2026 Odds Dan Quinn (Imagn)

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Week 5 of the NFL season stoked the flames under the NFL Coaching Hot Seat and shifted our Next NFL Head Coach Fired odds. Temperatures flirted with 451 degrees Fahrenheit in Washington. The calls for Dan Quinn to be fired echoed from the Atlantic to the Potomac and across the Tidal Basin.

The Commanders blew a two-scored lead and then botched their final snap in overtime against Giants. Instead of simply spiking the ball on the final play and trying a potential game-winning field goal from the Giants' 24-yard line, the Commanders took their time getting to the line and inexplicably had Jaylen Daniels try to throw a pass.

The result: a no-excuses 27-27 tie with Big Blue in game that could be potentially crucial given the tepid state of the NFC East.

Meanwhile, fans and media are making waves on the Pacific Coast in the wake of the Chargers' 0-5 record. It's the worst start for any Jim Harbaugh coached team in college or the pros.

Next NFL Head Coach Fired: 2026 Odds Chart

Here are the Bookies.com odds on the next NFL coach to be fired. These odds are for informational purposes only and not available on any legal U.S. sportsbook or prediction market platform.

Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds: The Favorites

Quinn, best known for coaching the Falcons when they blew a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl 51, spit fire after the way his team mishandled the final seconds. “Furious about our execution in the crucial moments of the game,” Quinn said Monday. “We work really hard on things and it didn’t look like it. Pissed about it.”

With 12 seconds to play in overtime, Daniels took a sack after he chose not to throw the ball out of bounds or spike it. The Commanders players slowly reacted after the sack, with some receivers walking up field and other linemen simply resting on the field. Time expired before the Commanders get off another snap.

The lack of clarity both on and off the field and after the game only further clouds Quinn's future, or at least one's perception of his in-game management skills.

Harbaugh won a Super Bowl ring coaching the Ravens, and a national championship at Michigan. He's never even had an 0-2 start before this season. An $80 million contract means he won't be going anywhere this season, but his name even appearing in this conversation is he biggest surprise of the season thus far.

This week? The juice-less Bolts pay a visit to Mr. and Mrs. Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the 5-0 Chiefs at Arrowhead.

Can you say: "D'oh & Six!"

Head coach Robert Saleh could well be a one-and done in Tennessee. Cam Ward's development has stalled. The 0-5 Titans continued their drive for the first overall draft pick (likely to be Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith) with a no-show 26-3 loss to the previously winless Texans. The Titans open a new stadium next season. Given the potential for a top-three draft pick, they might want to open the new stadium with a new, offensive-minded coach.

Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers' Pirate Ship (1-4) stopped circling the drain for the moment by upsetting the Cowboys Thursday night.

Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds: The Contenders

All those concerns about Nick Sirianni manifested themselves again as the Eagles lost their third straight game on Sunday. The day's first time-management debacle came in London.

The Eagles took a 17-16 lead on a field goal with 8 seconds left. Instead of sending the kickoff across the English Channel, the Eagles allowed Ameer Abdullah’s 53-yard kickoff return that left 1 second on the clock. Cam Little's 57-yard field goal at the gun triggered an aftershock that rattled windows across Philadelphia, Southern New Jersey and Delaware.

“I didn’t make the right decision, and I lost us that game,” Sirianni said.

That man-made disaster came one week after the Eagles held a 97.4% win probability against the Rams. These Birds clawed defeat from the victory's nest in that one, as well. Rams would score 14 unanswered points in the 4th quarter in Philly's 24-20 loss.

Shane Steichen’s Colts saw their one-game winning streak end with a 34-22 loss to the Steelers as Indy's coach returned to our contender's list.

Brian Schottenheimer could be coach for life in Dallas – Jerry Jones’ life, that is – if he remains in the good graces of the Cowboys owner. Jones' patience got tested again Thursday as the Cowboys helped Tampa Bay to its first win of the season.

Harbaugh and the Chargers rank as the league's top disappointment. Usually the Chargers wait until December of January to crumble. This season, they opted out in September. Before anyone seriously thinks of dumping Harbaugh, look for former Dolphins head coach current and Chargers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel to be exiled from the West Coast, as well.

The Jets beat Cleveland 17-12 in a Met Life monsoon Sunday. They play at New England this week. Aaron Glenn, meanwhile, landed on the hot seat the moment he became head coach. The last Jets coach NOT on the NFL Coaching Hot Seat was Weeb Eubank. His team won Super Bowl III some 57 years ago. Glenn – who played for the Jets some 30 years ago - knows this as well as anyone. Glenn's win came after the worst rookie-season record in Jets history. That doesn’t include Bill Belichick – who went 0-0 in both terms as "HC of the NYJ."

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Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds: The Longshots

The Packers and Matt LaFleur have won two straight and come off an impressive 31-7 shellacking of the declawed Bears. Green Bay has rebounded nicely after a 1-2 start.

There were 10 NFL coaching changes ahead of this season. That means nearly a one-third of the league is no real position to make a move this year unless catastrophe (see Jerod Mayo in New England) hits.

Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds: Signals We're Weighing

Here are the key factors used in determining our list.

1. This week's result — blowouts and losses to lesser opponents move the needle more than a close loss.
2. Contract timeline — coaches within a year of an expiring deal get less rope.
3. Ownership's track record — has this owner made a surprise move before, even after a good season?
4. Division difficulty — a rebuild in a weak division buys more patience than one in a stacked division.
5. Roster investment — big free-agent or extension money tied to the QB/coach pairing raises the stakes on both sides.

Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds: FAQs

Q: Which NFL coach is most likely to be fired first in 2026?

A: Dan Quinn is currently the overwhelming favorite at +250 (28.6% implied probability) after Washington's Week 5 collapse against the Giants, in which the Commanders blew a two-score lead and then failed to even attempt a game-winning field goal in overtime, settling for a 27-27 tie. National analysts have called it a fireable offense.

Q: Has an NFL coach been fired already in 2026?

A: No head coach has been fired during the 2026 season so far. Ten coaches were let go following the 2025 season and offseason — one of the largest coaching turnovers in NFL history — which is part of why so many first- and second-year coaches sit near the top of this year's board.

Q: Why is Jim Harbaugh suddenly on hot-seat lists?

A: Jim Harbaugh is 0-5 for the first time in a head-coaching career that includes a Super Bowl championship and playoff appearances in each of his first two Chargers seasons. It's an unprecedented start for him personally, even though his five-year, $80 million contract makes an in-season firing unlikely.

Q: What exactly happened with Dan Quinn and the Commanders in Week 5?

A: Washington led by two scores in the fourth quarter against the Giants but allowed a comeback, then mismanaged the clock so badly at the end of overtime that the team never got a field-goal attempt off, settling for a 27-27 tie. Dan Quinn publicly took responsibility, and reports since have suggested his exit is a matter of when, not if, even though Washington hasn't made a move yet.

Q: How many NFL head coaches were fired last season?

A: Ten head coaches were fired following the 2025 season, tying one of the largest single-cycle coaching turnovers in NFL history. That churn is a big reason this year's hot-seat board is so heavily populated with coaches in Year 1 through 3.

Odds are hypothetical and built from a combination of preseason hot-seat rankings (CBS Sports, FOX Sports), Week 5 game results, public contract and ownership reporting, and Bookies.com editorial judgment. Updated weekly through the season. For entertainment purposes only — not associated with any sportsbook.

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