Oscars Betting Pioneer Offers Picks For 2026 Academy Awards - Including One Film That's 'Getting A Big Push'
Johnny Avello pioneered Oscars odds during his days as a Las Vegas bookmaker three decades before it became legal to wager on Hollywood’s biggest night. Sunday, thanks in large part to the rise of prediction markets, more money than ever will be wagered/traded on the Academy Awards. Avello, now Director of Sports at DraftKings, sees one big trend heading into the 2026 Oscars Betting weekend:
Sinners.
Ryan Coogler’s film earned 16 nominations – the most ever. DraftKings has the film’s award total at 4.5 in the 2026 Oscars Betting.
“Sinners right now is getting a big push. And so that's the trend heading into the weekend,” Avello told Bookies.com.
“There are some trends going on right now. One Battle (After Another) opened as our favorite, which is unusual when you go back to the fall. It was the favorite then, not as big a favorite now, but it's held at the top spot. The odds on it have grown shorter,” he said.
One Battle peaked at -550 at DraftKings. Sinners cut into that number after its stellar show at the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards). Sinners star Michael B. Jordan snagged the lead role award at The Actors' Awards. And the film won in the coveted Best Ensemble category.
“Sinners is now gaining. Sinners has a lot of momentum right now. It's Michael B. Jordan. He was a much bigger underdog when we opened (+650). Now, he’s -200. He was as high as +800 before the Actors' Awards. And now, suddenly, he's a favorite this week. This week he's taking money, and he is now the favorite over Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)," Avello said.
Avello, Director of Sports at DraftKings, began posting odds on the Academy Awards during his days running the shop at Bally’s in Las Vegas “for entertainment purposes,” he said. Those odds helped give Bally’s public notice in the media.
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Where Can Your Bet On The 2026 Oscars?
These days, 2026 Oscars Betting is serious stuff. Traditional wagering on the Oscars has been legal in the United States since 2019.
Betting sites in New Jersey, Michigan, Indiana, Arizona, Kansas, Massachusetts, Missouri, Louisiana, and Puerto Rico take action on Hollywood’s biggest night of the year. Legal sports betting sites in Ontario also book wagers. Oscar betting remains illegal in Nevada.
Prediction markets offer Oscar-related trades in all 50 states. DraftKings’ own prediction platform offers trades on multiple Academy Awards categories.
“Prediction markets will be a separate entity and bring in quite a bit of action. If you want to add that to the mix, we're going to blow away all the prior years,” Avello said.
Traditionally, limits on Oscars betting might vary by state. But there are no restrictions on the amount of money one can trade on an Oscar category on a prediction market – assuming there’s someone else on the other side to complete the transaction.
Oscar voting took place from Feb. 28 through March 5. FanDuel and DraftKings offer betting in all 24 major categories. But not all operators offer Oscar betting markets where available.
All trading and wagering in all Oscar categories closes once the show begins at 8 p.m. (ET) – at least on DraftKings and DraftKings Predictions.
Betting Trends To Watch For In The 2026 Oscars
Just because someone’s nominated for an Oscar doesn’t necessarily mean people have seen it. Case in point: Best Supporting Actress nominee Amy Madigan (-140) in Weapons.
“She is good in it, but Weapons is not a movie that a lot of people have seen. And as far as the Academy's concerned, these people are sent the movies. Do they watch them all? I don't know. So that category to me is wide open,” Avello said.
One Battle (-400) remains a strong favorite despite the momentum enjoyed by Sinners. Such lopsided odds for Best Picture remain a rarity.
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“Normally, you'll find that in the actor and actors, supporting actor, actress, director. That's not uncommon to see it there. But in the movie, usually there's not a runaway,” Avello said. “It’s a little unusual to have the price that low for a movie, but it's coming down now. Who knows what it'll be by Sunday?”
Sinners appears to be on track to win Oscars in Original Screenplay (-1000), Original Score (-3500), and Casting (-400). Jordan holds an edge over Chalamet in Best Actor. Sinners' tipping point over its projected total will be Best Picture.
And the overall rise of Sinners may push Jordan past Chalamet.
“Chalamet, his movie Marty Supreme, is not going to win an Oscar that night if he doesn't win. It could absolutely draw a blank," Avello said. "When the Oscar voters are voting, sometimes they like a movie, they'll just check it off across the board.”
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One Battle Still On Track For Big Night
While One Battle After Another may have a battle on its hands in the Best Picture category, Avello believes the film remains on track for a strong Oscar haul. Its total is 5.5 at the best betting apps.
Sean Penn once stood as low as +800 to win Best Supporting Actor. He spiked to -350 after his win in The Actors. Director Paul Thomas Anderson (now -2500) has been the runaway favorite since DraftKings first posted 2026 Oscars odds last fall. Avello sees One Battle After Another taking Oscars in Cinematography (-350), Film Editing (-400), and Adapted Screenplay (-1800). A Best Picture win would push One Battle over 5.5 Oscars at -250. That’s a better play than taking the film for Best Picture at -400 given its strengths elsewhere.
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Breaking Down The 2026 Oscars Picks & Winners
Here are Avello’s Oscar picks for the top awards.
Best Picture
Favorite: One Battle After Another
Avello’s Winner: Sinners. “That would be a semi-shocker if Sinners beats out One Battle. I think Sinners has an upset there. I think I've kind of liked Sinners now for probably about a month, and now it's starting to gain even more momentum.”
Best Director
Favorite: Paul Thomas Anderson One Battle After Another
Avello’s Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson. “Pencil him in.”
Best Actress
Favorite: Jesse Buckley Hamnet
Avello’s Winner: Buckley. “She is outstanding. No question about that one.”
Best Actor
Favorite: Michael B. Jordan Sinners
Avello’s Winner: Michael B. Jordan. “Jordan winning the Actor's award was a big deal with the movie having such a big night. If the movie's going to have a good night, he could reign here.”
Best Supporting Actor
Favorite: Sean Penn One Battle After Another
Avello’s Winner: Penn. “I think he's the winner. Neither Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) nor Delroy Lindo (Sinners) was nominated for an Actor Award. So that’s always an issue for me. If you don’t get at least a nomination (in the Actor Awards), how do you win this? Penn’s probably the winner there.”
Best Supporting Actress
Favorite: Amy Madigan Weapons
Avello’s Winner: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another). “This one’s up for grabs between three ladies: Madigan, Taylor, and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners). It would not be a surprise if Madigan won, even though Weapons is a movie that not a lot of people have seen. If Sinners is going to have that kind of night where it kind of goes across the board, she could win it. But I think Taylor has a chance to win at +230 in a wide-open category.”
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