Prediction Markets Kalshi, Polymarket Continue Trades On Trump's Future In Wake Of 'Shooting Incident'

Apr 25th, 2026 10:35 PM EDT

Markets on both Kalshi and Polymarket speculating on President Donald Trump leaving office before his term expires remained active Saturday night following a potential assassination attempt on Trump deemed a "shooting incident" at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.

On Polymarket's non-U.S. site, more than $13 million in trades had been placed as to whether Trump would be out of office by April 30.

The prediction market's "Trump out as President before 2027?" offering has $7,462,185 in trades on Trump being out of office by the end of the year. The odds are currently 17%.

The price on Trump being out of office by June 30 sits at 5% (with $3,530,229 in trades).

And his price to be out of office by end of this month rests at just 0.3%, but has handled $13,216,013 in trading volume.

Kalshi's "Donald Trump out as President?" market has seen $8,541,896 since it began taking trades last November. Trump's price to be out of office before 2027 stands at just 14%.

Rules Differ In Terms Of Settlement

Prediction market Kalshi's settlement terms include the following:

Important information: In the event of death, the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death, unless such a price is not available, not logically consistent, or not representative of a fair settlement value, in which case the Exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion.

The rules on settlement are as follows:

If Donald Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.
If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.

No Mention On Polymarket About Possible Death

There's no mention in Polymarket's settlement rules in terms of how this market would resolve if Trump were to die. Officials said the shooter at the White House Correspondents' Dinner was apprehended and is in police custody.

Here are Polymarket's rules on its site:

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Prediction Markets Under Fire Following Insider-Trading Charges

Prediction markets remain in the spotlight amid dubious trades following both the U.S. action against Venezuela and the war in Iran.

U.S. solider Gannon Ken Van Dyke. Van Dyke allegedly profited $409,881 trading on Polymarket's non-U.S. platform using classified information regarding the timing of a U.S. military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, federal prosecutors said.

Thursday, the Department of Justice charged Van Dyke with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction.

Multiple bills in Congress have called for tighter regulation of prediction markets and limits on certain trades, including those that deal with military operations, elections, and, of course, sports.

The DEATH BETS Act. (H.R. 7942) and its companion bill in the Senate would explicitly prohibit any Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registered entity from listing any contract that involves, relates to, or references terrorism, assassination, war, or an individual’s death.