Trump: 'Never Much In Favor' Of Prediction Markets After Solider Arrested For Polymarket Trades

By Bill Speros

Apr 23rd, 2026 8:47 PM EDT

(Alamy)

President Trump took an unexpected swipe at prediction markets Thursday. His words came following the arrest of a U.S. solider on insider-trading charges after he made more than $400,000 on Polymarket.

Trump told reporters at the Oval Office that his administration plans investigate the practice of federal employees placing trades on prediction market platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood.

"The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino. You look at what's going on all over the world in Europe and every place they're doing these betting things," Trump said. “I was never much in favor of it. I don't like it conceptually, but it is what it is. I'm not happy with any of that stuff. They have all these different sites. They have predictive markets. It's a crazy world."

RELATED: Wisconsin Sues Multiple Prediction Markets, Alleging Illegal Sports Betting

Several bills in Congress would ban the practice of government employees and other officials from making prediction market trades based on events upon which they would have direct knowledge.

Trump's remarks were surprising because Donald Trump Jr. serves as both key investor in Polymarket, and as an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi. Prediction markets (including the U.S. version of Polymarket) operate under the governance of the Commodities Futures Trading Corporation. Trump's pick to run the CFTC, Michael Selig, has taken proactive role in supporting prediction markets as they face multiple lawsuits from states.

U.S. Solider Arrested After Making $400K On Polymarket

Tump spoke about prediction markets after being asked about the arrest of U.S. solider Gannon Ken Van Dyke. A special forces operator, Van Dyke profited $409,881 trading on Polymarket's non-U.S. platform on the basis of classified information regarding the timing of a U.S. military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, federal prosecutors said.

The Department of Justice charged Van Dyke with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction.

Van Dyke allegedly used sensitive classified information to make wagers on Polymarket. Prosecutors said Van Dyke set up his trading account last year. Van Dyke made approximately 13 trades totaling $33,034 from Dec. 27, 2025, through the evening of Jan. 26.

Those bets all took the “YES” position on:

• “U.S. Forces in Venezuela by January 31”
• “Maduro out by January 31”
• “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31,”
• "Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31.” 

After Operation Absolute Resolve on January 3, Polymarket settled several those contracts to “YES.” Reports of suspicious and dubious trades related to Maduro contracts on Polymarket surfaced after the attack. Prosecutors said Van Dyke then took steps to conceal his identity as the trader by asking Polymarket to delete his account.

"That Is Clear Insider Trading And Is Illegal'

“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” said Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche in the DOJ’s release. “Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply.”

The prosecutor handling the case said this is a clear case of "insider trading."

“Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain,” added U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York. “The defendant allegedly violated the trust placed in him by the United States Government by using classified information about a sensitive military operation to place bets on the timing and outcome of that very operation, all to turn a profit. That is clear insider trading and is illegal under federal law. Those entrusted to safeguard our nation’s secrets have a duty to protect them and our armed service members, and not to use that information for personal financial gain. Our Office will continue to hold accountable those who misuse confidential or classified information in a way that undermines and exploits our national security.”

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