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By Adam Martin

Mar 17th, 2026 9:05 PM EDT

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Texas vs. NC State Prediction - First Four, 9:10 PM ET (truTV)

The winner becomes the 11-seed and faces No. 6 BYU on Thursday.

Texas holds the edge in size and rebounding. Dailyn Swain leads the Longhorns with 17.8 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, and the team attacks the offensive glass at the fourth-highest rate in Division I. NC State counters with elite perimeter shooting, hitting 38.8% from three — 10th in the country — and they draw a Texas defense that allows opponents to shoot 36% from deep.

The spread has flipped since Selection Sunday. NC State opened as a 1.5-point favorite but is now a 1.5-point underdog. Projection models (KenPom, Bart Torvik) still give the Wolfpack a slight edge, but the line movement reflects sharper money backing Texas.

Pick: Over 158.5 (-110) — The November meeting cleared this number by 40 points. Both teams are offensively efficient and defensively porous. Four Texas players average 13+ points, and NC State's top four scorers all hover around 13.8-13.9 points per game. Expect a track meet.

About the Author

Adam Martin

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Adam Martin is a betting analyst and DFS betting expert for Bookies.com who has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade. He is an authority on UFC betting, while also covering the NBA, NFL, NHL, and MLB.