Kalshi Government Shutdown Prediction Markets for February 2026

By Adam Martin

Feb 13th, 2026 4:45 PM EST

The Kalshi government shutdown prediction market has become one of the most closely watched political markets as Congress approaches another high-stakes funding deadline.

Instead of relying on pundit opinions or breaking news speculation, Kalshi converts real-time political developments into live odds that reflect the market’s collective expectations.

The contract asks a simple but powerful question: Will the U.S. government shut down by a specific date? Traders can take a “Yes” or “No” position, with prices updating instantly as new information emerges.

When negotiations stall, rhetoric hardens, or deadlines loom without progress, shutdown odds often spike. When lawmakers signal a continuing resolution or budget breakthrough, the probability typically drops just as fast.

2026 Kalshi Government Shutdown Live Odds

Note: Kalshi’s odds might vary during the day.

How Kalshi Set Up The Shutdown Duration Market

On Kalshi, the government shutdown was traded as a timing-based prediction rather than a simple yes/no question. The market was broken into duration “rungs” such as Above 35 days, Above 40 days, and Above 43 days, with each contract paying $1 if the shutdown was still ongoing at a specific timestamp, or $0 if it had ended earlier.

Last year example: The key on 2025 was Above 43 days, which required the shutdown to last until 10:00 a.m. ET on November 13. When Donald Trump signed the agreement late on November 12 and agencies reopened the next morning, the shutdown officially ended at 43 days for Kalshi’s settlement.

Each contract functioned as a binary trade priced between $0 and $1, with the price representing the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring.

How to Trade on the Kalshi Government Shutdown Market

Now that the government shutdown markets have settled, traders can shift their focus to new political opportunities on Kalshi, and get started even faster by using the Kalshi referral code BOOKIES.

Each market is simple and transparent. You buy a Yes or No contract on a specific outcome such as whether a U.S. government shutdown would last longer than 40 days. Contracts are priced between $0 and $1, and they settle at $1 if the outcome happens, or $0 if it doesn’t.

Kalshi operates different from a traditional sportsbook. You’re not betting against the house, you’re trading directly against other market participants.

• If momentum shifts in your favor, you don’t have to wait for settlement. You can sell your position early to lock in profits as probabilities move.

Market Prices and Probabilities on Kalshi

Before placing your first trade on Kalshi, it’s important to understand how pricing works on the platform’s prediction markets.

Each possible outcome is listed with a price, such as 30¢, 55¢, or 75¢, and that number serves two purposes at once. It represents both the cost of the contract and the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. For example, a contract priced at 55¢ suggests the market believes there is a 55% chance the event will happen.

Every market is structured so the two outcomes always add up to $1:

• Yes: 55¢
• No: 45¢

When the event is resolved, the correct contract settles at $1, while the losing side settles at $0. In this example, a winning Yes position purchased at 55¢ would return $1, resulting in a 45¢ profit per contract.

Why Kalshi’s Government Shutdown Market is Trend?

The 2025 U.S. government shutdown dominated headlines throughout the fall, largely because more than a million federal workers were furloughed or forced to work without pay.

Beyond the political fallout, the shutdown also drew attention in the prediction markets, as Kalshi signaled early on that the disruption was likely to stretch beyond 40 days.

About the Author

Adam Martin

More About Adam

A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.