The American Express 2026: PGA Tour Picks and Leans For This Week

Jan 21st, 2026 10:25 AM EST

Workers place a branded display in the water surrounding the 17th green at the PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course (USATODAY)

We're one week into the PGA Tour golf betting season, with Chris Gotterup taking the opener at the Sony Open.

This week, it's onto The American Express, which presents not one, not two, but three courses to analyze and factor into our models. Played across the Pete Dye Stadium Course (including final round), La Quinta Country Club and the Nicklaus Tournament Course, it's our first look at the Palm Springs sunshine and makes for some great prime-time viewing on the east coast.

Two-time Ryder Cupper Sepp Straka is our defending champion, and Scottie Scheffler will make his 2026 debut. Past winners include Nick Dunlap (as an amateur), Jon Rahm (twice) and Si Woo Kim.

Let's get to some picks - with plenty of love this week for a longshot with 2 Tour titles to his name already.

American Express Winner Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Sam Burns +2500

The easy pick would be Scottie Scheffler. But only one of his six wins last season came in a birdie-fest. Birdie-fests on easy courses lend themselves to longer shots, giving anyone who gets hot with the putter a puncher's chance.

Sam Burns is not a long shot by any means (+2500 on DraftKings), but there was no better putter on Tour last season. He's had a pair of sixth-place finishes at the AmEx, most recently two years ago. Despite some accuracy issues from the fairway last season, Burns still ranked 19th on Tour in birdie average.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Patrick Cantlay +3000

Hard to believe it's been more than three years since this guy has been in the winner's circle, but I think this is a week he can return. Cantlay has been a regular in Palm Springs and has four top 10 finishes in his last six starts there.

Assuming he's past that injury that kept him out of the opening TGL match, I'm betting a rested Cantlay (hasn't played since Procore) gets it done.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Si Woo Kim +3500

Taking Si Woo outright is always a rush. He can win by multiple shots or WD on Friday. Anything's possible. But I like him a lot here this week at Palm Springs, where he won in 2021 over Cantlay. Played decent last week at Sony (T11) and last two starts of 2025 were T4 at RSM Classic and third at the Australian Open. I think win No. 5 is close for Si Woo.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Ben Griffin +2000

Ben Griffin has been trending toward a breakthrough win thanks to his steady ball-striking and improved confidence closing out rounds against strong fields. In a birdie-fest like the American Express, his ability to pile up scoring opportunities and stay aggressive without making costly mistakes gives him a legitimate chance to win. His course history and recent form align here.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Ludvig Aberg +2500

As much as I want to pick Scottie Scheffler, the value just isn’t there. Like many others in the field this week, Aberg is making his pro debut in Palm Springs, although he did win a collegiate event at PGA West during his days at Texas Tech. While he hasn’t won since the Genesis at Torrey Pines last February, I think Ludvig a great chance of getting his season off to a fast start, and igniting more hype around his major championship chances in 2026.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Scottie Scheffler +280

Until Scheffler or Indiana lose, they both get my money

American Express Top 20 Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Michael Thorbjornsen +175

After a brutal first three months to 2025, Thorbjornsen improved greatly and finished with six top-20s (non-Zurich). He's a long and accurate driver and also led the Tour in greens in regulation. His putting needs to improve. But the rest of his game is often good enough to carry him inside the top-20, especially on courses where you can let fly off the tee.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Matt Fitzpatrick +145

Looks like 2022 Matt Fitzpatrick is back, having been on a beautiful run of form really for the last nine months. Since last summer's U.S. Open, Fitzpatrick has made 13 starts worldwide and finished outside the top 20 just three times.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Patrick Cantlay +145

A popular man this week in Palm Springs. Cantlay was T5 here last year and runner up to Si Woo in 2021. I don't know how many wins are left for Cantlay, who might have missed his window to win a major. But he is still very much a top 20 merchant down the odds board.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Matt Fitzpatrick +145

Off a strong Fall season capping off with a DP World Tour Championship, Fitzpatrick fits the course model really well here. His elite approach play and his stronger performances at shorter, accuracy-focused courses sold me on him. His consistency from tee to green put him firmly in play for me to win, but I think he lacks that big scoring ability you need here.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Sepp Straka +155

The defending champion certainly has good memories at the AmEx. And while I don’t foresee Straka challenging for his first title of the year, I can absolutely envision another solid performance for the Austrian near the top of the leaderboard. Perhaps the stronger-than-normal field says otherwise, but the plus-money for Straka this week is good value, in my opinion.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Patrick Cantlay +145

Patrick Cantlay posted the course record at Pete Dye's Stadium track here in 2021 with a round of 61. He's finished in the top 10 here 4 times in 6 tries.

First Round Leader Bets

*Note: Few sportsbooks offer FRL for the AmEx due to the three course setup, hence lack of odds. We'll stay on it this week for bragging rights, of course.

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Pierceson Coody

First of all, pick someone playing the Nicklaus course or La Quinta. The Stadium track normally plays far tougher. And I prefer the Nicklaus with far bigger greens than La Quinta. Pierceson Coody has an early tee time at the Nicklaus (8:52 a.m. local). He ranked seventh on Tour last season in first-round scoring average. Coody traditionally has been a good putter who was way off last season. He putted well last week in a tie for 13th at the Sony.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Scottie Scheffler

Making his season debut, second in birdie average on tour last year. Why not?

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Ben Griffin

Not exactly going out on a limb here with the second outright favorite. Fully expect Griffin to pile on the birdies early and often on the Nicklaus course.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Sam Burns

Burns is always a strong First Round Leader play because he tends to start tournaments fast and isn’t afraid to go low early when conditions are favorable. With receptive greens and multiple easy scoring venues at the American Express, his aggressive approach and hot putter give him real upside to post a low opening round at La Quinta.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Kurt Kitayama

With the AmEx taking place across three different courses, the opportunities for first round leaders are quite interesting. Why not take a flier on Kitayama at the Stadium Course, who won the 3M Open in 2025, getting hot and taking an early share of the lead?

Bill Speros, Bookies - Patrick Cantlay

Cantlay. He's capable of a quick start given his mastery of this course, or rather, courses.

American Express Longshots

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Akshay Bhatia +8000

Maybe more than any other price, this one stood out as a big bargain. Bhatia is a shorter hitter (averaging under 300 off the tee) who can compete far better on shorter tracks. He ranked 14th on Tour in SG: Approach last season and 35th in SG: Putting, a 1-2 punch that will serve him well on any course. Bhatia also ranked 14th in birdie average.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Pierceson Coody +7500

Many see Coody as poised for a breakout in 2026. Closed Sunday with a strong 64 at the Sony Open.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Max Greyserman +8000

Greyserman has a case as best player who hasn't won now that Tommy Fleetwood and Cam Young broke through last season. T7 here last year, runner up in Japan in the fall at the Baycurrent Classic.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Akshay Bhatia +8000

Akshay Bhatia is an appealing longshot because his aggressive scoring ability allows him to get hot quickly in low-scoring environments like this one. 3 Top 10s in his last 4 tournaments to end the 2025 season shows me some strong recent form. If he can be confident with the putter & start sinking them, we know his willingness to attack pins gives him the upside to surprise a field where volatility often leads to unexpected contenders.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Akshay Bhatia +8000

Bhatia has been in the news quite a bit lately. After reportedly turning down a lucrative offer to join LIV Golf, the 23-year-old made his debut for Tiger Woods’s TGL team, as the Big Cat remains on the sidelines recovering from his latest back surgery. Bhatia, a two-time winner on tour, had four top 10 finishes in 2025. Why not start this year with a bang?

Bill Speros, Bookies - Wyndham Clark +8000

Secure in his decision not to jump to the LIV Tour a few years back, Clark wants those returning to the Tour to see more repercussions. Due to contend, watch out if putter gets hot.

Recent History Of American Express

Year	Winner	Winning Score	Odds Entering Week
2025	Sepp Straka	-25	+5500
2024	Nick Dunlap (a)	-29	+30000
2023	Jon Rahm	-27	+600
2022	Hudson Swafford	-23	+15000
2021	Si Woo Kim	-23	+5500

(a) = amateur