The Farmers Insurance Open 2026: PGA Tour Picks and Leans For This Week

By Bookies.com Staff

Jan 28th, 2026 9:19 AM EST

Koepka returns to the PGA Tour this week (USATODAY)

It took exactly one event for Scottie Scheffler to get in the winner's circle this golf betting season, with Scheffler capturing the AmEx for the first time in his career last week.

Lucky for us, Scheffler is not in the field this week for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines (but Brooks Koepka is). And the Bookies golf roundtable is heating up. Just last week, our Len Hochberg hit Pierceson Coody as first round leader at AmEx, while Bill Speros had Scheffler outright the whole way. Speros and Thomas Leary also cashed Patrick Cantlay top 20 tickets to gain some momentum ahead of the Farmers.

Let's keep the momentum going and look ahead to this week.

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What to Know About Torrey Pines

Here are the 4 key things to know before betting the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open:

• The "Tale of Two Courses" Strategy: The field plays one round on the North Course and three on the South Course. The North is a resort-style layout that plays roughly 3-4 strokes easier. To win, players traditionally must post a 65 or 66 on the North before surviving the brutal South Course, which ranked as the 2nd most difficult course on Tour in 2025.
• Total Driving is Non-Negotiable: At 7,765 yards, the South Course is the longest on the PGA Tour. However, distance alone isn’t enough. The fairways are among the narrowest on Tour (averaging only 27 yards wide) and the 4-inch Kikuyu rough is notoriously sticky, making it difficult to control approach shots. Target players who rank high in Total Driving (Distance + Accuracy).
• The "West Coast" Putting Surface: Unlike the Bentgrass greens found at the North Course, the South Course features Poa Annua greens. These greens get bumpy and late-day chatter can cause short putts to wiggle offline. Look for "West Coast Specialists" like Max Homa or Jason Day who grew up on Poa and have the patience to handle the inconsistent rolls.
• Long-Iron Mastery: Due to the longer par-4s, players face a disproportionate number of approach shots from 200+ yards. While most weeks focus on wedge play, this week favors elite long-iron players. Check Strokes Gained: Approach specifically from the 200–225 yard range.

Farmers Insurance Winner Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Patrick Cantlay +2350

Why pick someone who hasn't won anywhere in more than three years? Excellent question. Cantlay has obviously underperformed, but he has come close to ending the skid numerous times. He tied for fifth last year at the Genesis Invitational played at Torrey Pines. Statistically, Cantlay's game had no real weakness last year, collectively strong across the strokes-gained landscape. He just didn't put everything together at the same time. He has to win some time, right?

Josh Carpenter, SBJ - Jason Day +3300

Hard to not like the Aussie in this spot. Coming off a T2 in the California Desert and heading to a place where he's had a lot of success in the past, including a pair of wins.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Hideki Matsuyama +2900

I think Hideki is going to win on the West Coast swing, and I like this number at a place he was T3 in 2019. He'll have even shorter odds at Waste Management and Genesis, both of which he's won before. No reason this can't be the week.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Hideki Matsuyama +2900

Matsuyama’s skill set fits Torrey Pines perfectly with some great course history. Nearly 30% of approach shots come from 200+ yards, where he ranks 9th in the field. He’s coming great form off a solid T13 at the Sony, and his elite short game should pay dividends on Torrey’s small greens.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - J.J. Spaun +2800

It took me a while to come around to Spaun, but his stellar play in 2025 was undeniable, and I think he has some good value this week, especially with Scottie Scheffler not in the field. You have to imagine winning at Torrey Pines would be high on the wish list for Spaun, who is from L.A. and played golf at San Diego State. Currently ranked No. 7 in the world, there’s no reason J.J. can’t find the winner’s circle come Sunday.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Harris English +3200

Brooks Kopeka is back on the PGA Tour. Oddsmakers are not impressed, as he’s roughly a 50-1 shot to win this week. This week’s field is loaded. The past 4 winners are back: Harris English (2025) Matthieu Pavon (2024), Max Homa (2023) and Luke List (2022). We like English to repeat this week and he remains a terrific value at +3200 (DraftKings). Torrey Pines rewards the faithful. English ranks No. 11 in the world.

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Farmers Top 20 Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Will Zalatoris +184

Zalatoris is making his way back from a second back surgery. He made his first PGA Tour start since last year's PGA Championship at last week's Amex. He tied for 18th. He also played once in South Africa late last year and finished 15th. Zalatoris had great results at the Farmers pre-surgeries, including a runner-up in 2022 and a T7 in 2021. Last year before shutting things down, he tied for 24th at the relocated Genesis Invitational.

Josh Carpenter, SBJ - J.J. Spaun +122

I don't think Spaun's form falls off after his personal best year in 2025. Hasn't played historically GREAT at the Farmers, but this is a new J.J. Spaun. Played collegiately at San Diego State.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Jason Day +138

Love Day at Torrey and he's a legitimate favorite this week. But he's an old 38 in golf years - with only 1 win since 2019. Like a safe top 20 bet here.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Max Homa +230

There is no hiding it, Max Homa had a horrific 2025 as he finished outside the Top 100 in FedEx Cup standings. But he’s turning a corner, as he placed in the Top 20 in 3 of his last 5 starts last year and he finished T-27 at the American Express. I’m buying low on Max here as he fits Torrey’s key statistics, but not quite ready to pick him outright.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Brooks Koepka +325

It would be irresponsible to expect Koepka to win his first event back on the PGA Tour since 2022, but I do expect him to be quite motivated to show he’s still got it. Brooks was T4 at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, so I think he can squeak out a decent finish this weekend, and get everyone excited for his 2026 season.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Patrick Cantlay +135

Cantlay finished T13 last week and his game remains solid. His name can be found floating on the 1st or 2nd page of the leaderboard all weekend. And this is a great value play at +135 (FanDuel).

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First Round Leader Bets

*Note: Few sportsbooks offer FRL for the Farmers due to the two-course setup, hence lack of odds. We'll stay on it this week for bragging rights, of course.

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Garrick Higgo

Golfodds.com puts the over/under on a FRL score at 63.5. Highly unlikely anyone is shooting 63 on the South. So if you play FRL, pick someone playing the North on Thursday. In 14 starts on Tour last season (not including the funky Barracuda scoring), Higgo shot in the 60s 12 times in the first round. He finished second on Tour last season in first-round scoring behind you-know-who. This will be Higgo's 2026 debut, after a fantastic fall season lifted him from around 150th OWGR to his current 64th. He tees off at 9:32 a.m. local time on Thursday on the North.

Josh Carpenter, SBJ - Ludvig Aberg

Assuming he's feeling well (plans to play after WDing from Amex), I like Aberg here. Was FRL last year at this event, and of course went on to win the Genesis Invitational, which was contested at Torrey.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Sami Valimaki

T15 here last year, won the RSM last fall for his PGA Tour breakthrough. Need a decent driving day on the South Course with a hot putter. Give me the big fella from Finland.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Keith Mitchell

Mitchell’s length gives him a big edge at Torrey Pines, especially on the par 5s, and he’s capable of going low when conditions are calm early. He’s shown strong first-round scoring upside in past events, making him a live FRL option at a big number. One Note: Every FRL the last 5 years played on the North course, so keep in mind when betting!

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Adam Scott

Coming off a T24 finish last week at the American Express, the 45-year-old Scott still has plenty of game left in him, at least enough to fire off an opening-round stunner. Scott didn’t play the Farmers last year, but did finish T37 at the Genesis Invitational, which was moved to Torrey Pines.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Xander Schauffele

When Scottie Scheffler isn’t around, Schauffele is the best player in the field. He’ll tear it up early and contend all weekend.

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Farmers Longshots

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Christiaan Bezuidenhout +9200

Honestly, I don't see a long shot winning  this week. There are too many better golfers playing on a very difficult track. That usually brings the top guys to the fore. But Christiaan Bezuidenhout has a … shot. From 100 yards and in, he was one of the best on Tour last year -- ranked top-20 in both SG: Around-the-Green and Putting. And he was among the most accurate drivers. That's a lot of what you need to succeed this week.

Josh Carpenter, SBJ - Sahith Theegala +8000

SoCal native who's looking for a rebound season in 2025, and is off to a good start at Sony (T31) and Amex (T8).

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Matt McCarty +6700

McCarty has 3 top 10s in his last 4 starts, including T2 just last week at the AmEx. Worth a flier at this number.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Haotong Li +9800

Li’s ball-striking has quietly trended up, and his ability to gain with long irons plays well at Torrey Pines. In his last 4 tournaments, he has shown amazing form with 3 Top 10s. If he gets a neutral week on the greens, he has the upside to hang around and contend at a big number.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Billy Horschel +15000

Horschel’s last PGA Tour victory came in the Dominican Republic in 2024, but he’s been grinding away at his game as he creeps closer to the big 4-0 later this year. Perhaps Billy can bring some of his TGL magic to Torrey Pines, and lift another trophy.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Gordon Sargent +10000

A former NCAA Division I champion, Sargent went pro last year He missed the 54-hole cut last week but closed at -5. He’s worth coffee money at +10000 (FanDuel).

Recent Farmers Insurance Open History

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Who's Who In Bookies Golf Roundtable

Len Hochberg has covered golf for RotoWire since 2013. A veteran sports journalist, he was an editor and reporter at The Washington Post for nine years. Len is a three-time winner of the FSWA DFS Writer of the Year Award (2020, '22 and '23) and a five-time nominee (2019-23). He is also a writer and editor for MLB Advanced Media.

Josh Carpenter covers golf and sports media for Sports Business Journal, having been with the publication since 2012. Away from the office, Josh loves playing golf and spending time with his wife Amy and son, Walt. He is an avid supporter of the Carolina Hurricanes and Tennessee Volunteers.

Thomas Leary is a senior editor with Gambling.com Group who works across a variety of the company's portfolios, including Bookies.com. Previously, Thomas spent over six years at Sports Business Journal where he helped launch the digital newsletter division. He is a Charlotte, NC native and long-suffering Hornets fan.

Jared Kimble is a media manager with Gambling.com Group who oversees the group's North American digital PR efforts. Jared previously worked for the Orlando Magic. A Pennsylvania native, he is an Elon University graduate and currently resides in Charlotte, NC.

David Rumsey is a reporter at Front Office Sports, focusing on golf, college football, and the NFL. He has a B.A. in Communication Studies from Southern Adventist University in Chattanooga, Tenn. David is based in Charleston, S.C.

Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.

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