The Players Championship 2026: PGA Tour Picks and Leans For This Week

By Thomas Leary

Mar 11th, 2026 9:10 AM EDT

TPC Sawgrass again hosts The Players Championship this week (USATODAY)

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Outside of the four majors, there's no bigger event than The Players Championship, back this week at TPC Sawgrass. Rory McIlroy is our defending champion, though his back injury last week has made his status uncertain.

Last week, our Bill Speros hit Ricky Castillo outright at The Puerto Rico Open, a nice feather in the cap for the betting panel ahead of The Players. Plus, both Josh Carpenter and David Rumsey visited TPC Sawgrass this week for their respective publications. So if you want insight and betting momentum, you've come to the right place.

This golf betting season, Bookies.com continues to provide analysis from a variety of experts across the space, including leans on first round leaders, longshots, top 20s, matchups and much more.

Check out insight from a variety of sources below before you head to your favorite U.S. sports betting app.

What To Know About TPC Sawgrass

The Players presents a classic Pete Dye challenge where course conditions and weather are set to dictate the leaderboard. Here are three key factors to consider for your betting card:

• Wind and Weather Volatility: TPC Sawgrass is a different beast in March compared to its old May date. The prevailing wind typically shifts to the north/northeast, bringing cooler air and more unpredictability. For 2026, forecasts suggest a 70% chance of rain and thunderstorms for Thursday's opening round, followed by gusty winds on Friday (up to 24 mph). Look for "mudders" or players with strong records in Open-style conditions who can handle a potential Thursday delay and a blustery Friday.
• The "Pete Dye" Deception and Layout: The Stadium Course is a true positional course that doesn't favor one specific type of player (long hitters vs. short hitters), but rather rewards those with elite Strokes Gained: Approach and the ability to find specific quadrants on the tiered, lightning-fast greens. Accuracy off the tee is paramount, as the course has been lengthened in recent years and the overseeded rough is typically grown to a penal 4 inches.
• The Volatile Finishing Stretch (Holes 16–18): From a betting perspective, no lead is safe at Sawgrass. The closing stretch features a high-risk/reward par-5 (16th), the iconic island-green par-3 (17th), and a daunting par-4 (18th) with water hugging the entire left side. This volatility often leads to massive swings on the leaderboard; for example, defending champion Rory McIlroy won last year in a playoff after J.J. Spaun found the water on the 17th. Consider targeting players with high Scrambling percentages and "nerves of steel" for live-betting opportunities or finishing position parlays.

Now let's pick 'em!

Players Winner Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Ludvig Aberg +2800

Aberg's results have gotten better every tournament he's played this season: WD-MC-T37-T20-T3. Of course, there's not much higher he can go than last week's podium showing at Bay Hill. After a dicey 2025, Aberg clearly is playing better this season. He's in plus territory in every strokes-gained metric and is borderline top-50 in driving accuracy, a key metric this week. He's not doing any one thing elite, but that's not necessarily a bad thing at Sawgrass.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Collin Morikawa +2050

Probably a popular pick this week, but it's hard to argue against him. It feels like 2021 Collin Morikawa is back. We all know TPC Sawgrass rewards elite ball striking, and Morikawa is one of the top iron players in the world. Throw in his win at Pebble Beach, followed by a pair of top 10s at the two Signature events immediately following it, and he feels like a can't-miss bet this week.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Russell Henley +4100

Henley has been steady as ever this season, with one bad round at Genesis being the only blemish. He's finished top 20 in all other starts and is coming off a T6 at Bay Hill. Putter is starting to get truly hot. With Scheffler a little off and Rory's back being a big question mark, I'm happy to go slightly down the board for a Henley outright.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Collin Morikawa +2050

Morikawa is the best iron player in the field arriving in the best form of anyone on tour - he's won at Pebble Beach and rattled off three straight top-7 finishes while ranking 5th in SG:Approach and 9th in driving accuracy this season. TPC Sawgrass is built for his exact skillset, where approach play is far and away the most predictive stat for success, and his elite wedge precision neutralizes the water-on-every-hole risk that derails bombers. At +2050 with the FedEx Cup lead and a career-best T-10 here last year, he's the best value on the board.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Matt Fitzpatrick +4100

Beyond the iconic 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass’s Stadium Course rests one of the most-challenging courses on the PGA Tour. Given the mini-major status of this event – and the terror on 17 – it takes nerves of steel to win here. Matt Fitzpatrick has flirted with this event. He finished 5th two years ago and held the lead. He’ll have it this week once the field is done.

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Players Top 20 Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Akshay Bhatia +190

The danger here is how Bhatia will respond so soon after the biggest win of his career last week at Bay Hill. The fact that he had been playing well all season, had won twice before in his career and finished third last year at THE PLAYERS mitigates that concern. We can't expect a repeat of last week's record-setting short-game performance. But Bhatia is also ranked top-25 on Tour in SG: Approach. He really could be close to busting through to the elite class of golfers.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Hideki Matsuyama +160

Hideki did miss the cut here last year, but he's on a different run of form recently. A T6 and 5th place finish before that (don't forget his opening round in 2020), and he thrives at this Pete Dye design. Matsuyama has finished in the top 20 six times in his last 10 Players appearances.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Rickie Fowler +184

The 2015 Players champ brings sneaky good form back to TPC Sawgrass this year. He's posted 4 top 20s in 5 starts this season, with no missed cuts and a T9 last week at Bay Hill. He's 17th in SG: Total and 15th in putting on the year as well.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Corey Conners +305

Conners is one of only two players with a top-16 finish in each of the last two years at Sawgrass, and his 70.44 scoring average across 18 rounds ranks 4th best in the field — the kind of quiet consistency that prints Top 20 cashes. He's an elite ball-striker whose iron game perfectly fits a course where SG: Approach is the single most important stat, and he's historically gained strokes putting on Sawgrass's Bermuda greens despite struggling with the flatstick elsewhere.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Rory McIlroy -115

McIlroy defends his title this week after taking a DQ due to a back injury last week at Arnie’s Place. This is solid number for a defending champion – despite the back concerns.

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Players First Round Leader Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Brooks Koepka +4900

Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Thursday afternoon. Let's go with someone in the morning wave with a better chance of completing his round. Koepka goes out just before 8:30 a.m. ET. He did not have a good first round last time out at the Cognizant. But it was at that point that he discovered a flaw with his putting setup. He adjusted and closed with three rounds in the 60s for his first top-10 since rejoining the PGA Tour.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Min Woo Lee +5500

Min Woo has had a sneaky decent 2026, and don't forget he played in the final Saturday group here last year. Seventh on tour in average strokes gained.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Sepp Straka +6200

Sepp has a slight Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act going this season. T2 at Pebble Beach, shot 80 at the Genesis, then fired a Saturday 66 at Bay Hill. He's posted consecutive top 20s here at TPC Sawgrass.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Aaron Rai +9200

Rai literally lives near TPC Sawgrass and uses its practice facilities as his home base, giving him unmatched familiarity with the course. He leads the field in proximity from the critical 125-200 yard approach window and is one of the most accurate drivers on tour — the two stats that matter most at a venue where precision off the tee and iron play separate contenders from the cut line. With poor weather conditions predicted for Thursday, check tee times before locking in your picks for FRL.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Collin Morikawa +2500

Morikawa has generated some buzz ahead of this week. He may well make a run at a title this week, which means a solid start Thursday.

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Players Longshot Winner

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Sahith Theegala +8400

Chances are you won't do well at Bay Hill or Sawgrass if you can't control your driver. Theegala controlled his driver last week, ranking 29th in the field in accuracy -- good enough -- and wound up tied for sixth. That was his third top-10 and fifth top-25 in what is fast becoming a quality bounce-back season. Theegala is still spraying his driver a bit this season, but it's clear he knows reigning it in correlates to his position on the leaderboard. He tied for ninth here two years ago.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Sahith Theegala +8400

Theegala popped a bit here in 2024 with a T9 and is coming off a strong showing at Bay Hill. T22 or better in five of his last six starts on Tour.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Justin Rose +8200

Long odds for the No. 5 player in the world. Admittedly has not played well since dominant win at the Farmers. But T6 here in 2023, T8 in 2019. If Fred Funk can win The Players at 48 years old, Rosie can win it at 45. Big game hunter at this stage of his career.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Tom Hoge +30000

Hoge holds the course record at Sawgrass (62 in 2023) and has two T-3 finishes in the last three years, gaining a ridiculous +9.8 strokes on approach in 2025 alone - proving his game is tailor-made for this course even when his overall form dips. Over 40% of approach shots at TPC Sawgrass come from inside 150 yards, which is the exact range where Hoge thrives, and he's gained strokes on approach in seven consecutive trips to the Stadium Course. At +30000 he's the best lottery ticket in the field — elite course-specific performance at a price that doesn't reflect it.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Justin Rose +8200

Rose carries plenty of veteran swagger and makes his 20th start here this week. His top finish was T6 in 2023.

Recent Players Championship History

Who's Who In Bookies Golf Roundtable

Len Hochberg has covered golf for RotoWire since 2013. A veteran sports journalist, he was an editor and reporter at The Washington Post for nine years. Len is a three-time winner of the FSWA DFS Writer of the Year Award (2020, '22 and '23) and a five-time nominee (2019-23). He is also a writer and editor for MLB Advanced Media.

Josh Carpenter covers golf and sports media for Sports Business Journal, having been with the publication since 2012. Away from the office, Josh loves playing golf and spending time with his wife Amy and son, Walt. He is an avid supporter of the Carolina Hurricanes and Tennessee Volunteers.

Thomas Leary is a senior editor with Gambling.com Group who works across a variety of the company's portfolios, including Bookies.com. Previously, Thomas spent over six years at Sports Business Journal where he helped launch the digital newsletter division. He is a Charlotte, NC native and long-suffering Hornets fan.

Jared Kimble is a media manager with Gambling.com Group who oversees the group's North American digital PR efforts. Jared previously worked for the Orlando Magic. A Pennsylvania native, he is an Elon University graduate and currently resides in Charlotte, NC.

David Rumsey is a reporter at Front Office Sports, focusing on golf, college football, and the NFL. He has a B.A. in Communication Studies from Southern Adventist University in Chattanooga, Tenn. David is based in Charleston, S.C.

Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.

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