Valero Texas Open 2026: Picks and Leans For PGA Tour This Week

By Thomas Leary

Mar 31st, 2026 4:34 PM EDT

Si Woo Kim is a popular pick this week at the Valero Texas Open (USATODAY)

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It's time for a final Masters tune-up with the Valero Texas Open this week. The Bookies.com panel is rounding into form as well, with SBJ's Josh Carpenter last week hitting Gary Woodland at +9400.

Ahead of the biggest golf betting week of the season, Bookies.com continues to provide analysis from a variety of experts across the space, including leans on first round leaders, longshots, top 20s, matchups and much more.

Check out insight from a variety of sources below for Valero Texas Open picks before you head to your favorite U.S. sports betting app.

What To Know About TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course

Prioritize Ball Striking over "Bombing": While the course stretches over 7,400 yards, driving distance is historically less important than precision. The fairways are among the narrowest on Tour (averaging 25–30 yards wide), and the rough has been grown to 3 inches this year (up from 2.25). Look for "fairway finders" who can avoid the penal native areas and deep bunkers that flank these tight corridors.

The "Hardest Greens to Hit" Metric: TPC San Antonio consistently ranks as one of the toughest courses for Greens in Regulation (GIR), with field averages often dipping below 60%. The elevated, multi-tiered greens feature aggressive run-off areas and collection complexes. Because approach shots are so difficult to stick, target players with elite Strokes Gained: Approach and high-end scrambling skills, as everyone will be chipping frequently this week.

A "Grinder's" Par 5 Setup: Unlike most Tour stops where the Par 5s are "must-birdie" holes, three of the four Par 5s here measure over 590 yards and are often unreachable in two for the field. This turns them into tactical three-shot holes where wedge play and discipline are rewarded over raw power. The scoring volatility is highest on the Par 5 18th, which features a narrow fairway and a creek bisecting the green—a classic risk/reward design that can swing a bet in the final minutes.

Now let's pick 'em!

Valero Texas Open Winner Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Russell Henley +1800

Henley has been his ever-steady self over the first three months of the season. He's finished top-20 in six of his seven starts, with a pair of top-10s. The one thing he hasn't done is contend for a title, as T6 at Bay Hill is his best showing. That should change this week. Two years ago here, Henley tied for fourth. He's ranked 31st in SG: Approach, 32nd in Tee-to-Green and 14th in Putting. Not only is that great for this week, but next week, too.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Si Woo Kim +1900

Going back to the bank with Si Woo. He doesn't necessarily have the results at this tournament to back it up, but he's been one of the best all-around players on tour, ranking in the top 40 in all major strokes gained categories sans putting. Driving and approach play will be at a premium this week, both areas he's excelled at this year.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Sepp Straka +2800

I was ready to roll with Collin Morikawa outright this week before the WD. Straka was more of a FRL or Top 20 play, but the more I looked at the board, the more I liked the big Austrian to win the whole thing. Little to no course history but the form is there. T2 at Pebble Beach, T13 at Bay Hill, T8 at THE PLAYERS. 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green this season. (Came through as FRL at THE PLAYERS for me to boot).

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Si Woo Kim +1900

Kim ranks 2nd on tour in SG: Approach and 4th in driving accuracy -- the two stats that define every recent Valero winner -- and he's one of just eight players above average in every key stat category for TPC San Antonio. At +1950 with three top-10s already in 2026 and his complete game clicking, he's the best course fit on the board outside the favorites.

David Rumsey, FOS - Si Woo Kim +1900

Maybe its just because I enjoyed watching him on the PGA Tour’s 'Chasing Sunday’ mini-doc after the Players Championship, but the Valero feels like a perfect spot for Si Woo to get his first win since the 2023 Sony Open. He’s already in the Masters field, so there’s not added pressure to steal a spot at Augusta. Kim was hot to start the season, and grabbed a T2 at Torrey Pines. I think he can do one better this week.

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Valero Top 20 Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Michael Thorbjornsen +142

Every week they ask us for a top-20. Thorbjornsen is also +310 for a top-10, which is very much in play. He was so close to qualifying for the Masters the past month. He was in the final pairing on Sunday at THE PLAYERS and last week was in contention at Houston. He was done in both times by poor Sundays, and thus stalled at No. 54 OWGR when he needed to get into the top-50. Now, he'll need a win this week. If he can figure out how to have a better Sunday, he very well could do it.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Jordan Spieth -110

Spieth's form has been coming around lately, and you've got to think his mind is in a good place with the Masters just a week away. Worst finish at this event over his last four starts is a T35 in 2022, and also throw in a win in 2021.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Maverick McNealy +108

Playing just fine this year but hasn't truly contended yet. T3 here last year is enough for me.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Rickie Fowler +112

Fowler is one of eight players above average in every key Valero stat and one of nine ranking top-25 in both bogey avoidance and SG:Total in difficult conditions -- plus he's not qualified for the Masters, adding a motivation edge the market undervalues. Plus money for a Top 20 on a well-rounded veteran who fits every profile this course demands.

David Rumsey, FOS - Marco Penge +215

The Englishman has been hot and cold recently with a T4 at the Valspar sandwiched between MCs at the Players and last week in Houston. Penge, a first-year PGA Tour member, also had a T16 at Riviera. I like his odds here for a nice payout.

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Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR) 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See http://BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

First Round Leader Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Hideki Matsuyama +4100

With showers forecast for the afternoon, let's go with a guy with an early tee time. Matsuyama heads out at 8:06 a.m. local time in a featured group alongside Tommy Fleetwood and Rickie Fowler. The Oaks course favors ball strikers, and Matsuyama is a good one. He's also ranked third on Tour right now in first-round scoring average, with no Thursday round worse than 70 so far this season.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Keith Mitchell +4600

He likes this event (inside the top 17 in his last three starts) and is coming off a T14 last week in Houston.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Jordan Spieth +3500

This is my first ride on the Spieth rollercoaster this season. Let's avoid big numbers and keep the good vibes flowing into Augusta.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Alex Noren +5400

Noren has four top-20 finishes in six career starts at TPC San Antonio including a 2nd place in 2024 when he fired a closing 63 to force a playoff -- and he comes in trending after ranking top-25 in approach, ARG, tee-to-green, and putting at the Houston Open last week. At +5400 his low ball flight, left-to-right shape, and proven course history make him elite FRL value.

David Rumsey, FOS - Hideki Matsuyama +4100

Give me the 2021 Masters Champion here to get hot, at least early this week, as he prepares for Augusta. Matsuyama hasn’t had a T25 since mid-February, so he’s due for some better play.

Valero Longshot Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Adrien Dumont de Chassart +10500

The former collegiate star at Illinois appears much more comfortable in his second PGA Tour season at age 26 -- and not just because the Illini are in the Final Four. Dumont de Chassart has made 6 of 8 cuts with four top-25s and two near-misses at T26. He tied for 12th last week at Houston. He is ranked top-85 in every strokes-gained metric, signaling a strong all-around game.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Brian Harman +6500

Pretty long odds for Harman despite being the defending champion and coming off his best finish of the season (T11) at the Players Championship. Why not?

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Brian Harman +6500

Agree with Josh above. Harman catches some flak for the waggles and slow play. But this price makes little sense to me for the defending champ, even if current form isn't off the charts.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Christiaan Bezuidenhout +7200

Bezuidenhout pairs strong approach play with excellent around-the-green touch -- the exact two-skill combo that separates contenders at a course where firm greens and tricky runoffs punish one-dimensional players. At +7200 he's a steady, low-variance player with genuine top-10 upside being priced like he has no chance.

David Rumsey, FOS - Christiaan Bezuidenhout +7200

I’m keeping it all-international this week. The South African does need a Valero miracle to get into the Masters, so he’ll have plenty of motivation to try and get the W.

Recent Valero Texas Open History

Who's Who In Bookies Golf Roundtable

Len Hochberg has covered golf for RotoWire since 2013. A veteran sports journalist, he was an editor and reporter at The Washington Post for nine years. Len is a three-time winner of the FSWA DFS Writer of the Year Award (2020, '22 and '23) and a five-time nominee (2019-23). He is also a writer and editor for MLB Advanced Media.

Josh Carpenter covers golf and sports media for Sports Business Journal, having been with the publication since 2012. Away from the office, Josh loves playing golf and spending time with his wife Amy and son, Walt. He is an avid supporter of the Carolina Hurricanes and Tennessee Volunteers.

Thomas Leary is a senior editor with Gambling.com Group who works across a variety of the company's portfolios, including Bookies.com. Previously, Thomas spent over six years at Sports Business Journal where he helped launch the digital newsletter division. He is a Charlotte, NC native and long-suffering Hornets fan.

Jared Kimble is a media manager with Gambling.com Group who oversees the group's North American digital PR efforts. Jared previously worked for the Orlando Magic. A Pennsylvania native, he is an Elon University graduate and currently resides in Charlotte, NC.

David Rumsey is a reporter at Front Office Sports, focusing on golf, college football, and the NFL. He has a B.A. in Communication Studies from Southern Adventist University in Chattanooga, Tenn. David is based in Charleston, S.C.

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