Vrabel's Odds To Be Out As Patriots Coach Surge On Prediction Markets After Latest Russini Scandal News

By Bill Speros

May 7th, 2026 3:56 PM EDT

Mike Vrabel Prediction Markets

Prediction markets continue to see heavy trading on whether Mike Vrabel will be coaching the Patriots for the 2026 football season. And the money is no longer moving in his favor.

Users have placed more than $391,000 in trades on Vrabel's fate in Kalshi's "New England: Head Coach Week 1" market. It opened on April 23. Earlier that same day, ESPN reported Vrabel would be missing Day 3 of the NFL Draft to attend marriage counseling.

Vrabel's price as Patriots head coach for Week 1 traded as low as 60% on Wednesday afternoon, matching his lowest numbers since that market launched. His price in that market peaked at 85% in the first hours after its opening. Current Patriots' offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels trades around 29%, with former Steelers coach Mike Tomlin coming in at 4$.

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RELATED: Kalshi Scores $22B Valuation As Gaming Executives Fret

Kalshi's "Pro Football Coach Out By Week 1" market saw strong Vrabel trading action prior to the Patriots-specific market's launch. That market, which opened in January, had seen $947,697 in trades as of Wednesday afternoon. Bookies.com reported on April 23 that Vrabel's price to be out at Patriots coach in that market peaked at 42%, with more than $100,000 of that trading volume coming in the previous 24 hours.

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Vrabel Trades Began In Earnest Last Month

Traders on Kalshi first began making larger trades on Vrabel's future in April when it was first reported that he was visiting an elite Arizona resort with former Athletic NFL reporter Dianna Russini. Since those initial stories, photos, and videos of the couple have surfaced in multiple intimate public settings. TMZ posted evidence and videos of Vrabel and Russini renting a boat in Tennessee back in 2021 when she was 7-months pregnant. Both are married to other people.

At times, up to 90% of Kalshi's trading volumes come in the form of sport-related contract trades. The company said on Wednesday it now has a $22 billion valuation.

The Vrabel-related trades on Polymarket, the bulk of whose trading takes place outside the U.S., have seen $10,989 in trades on its "Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026?" market. Vrabel's odds to be dismissed by the end of the year spiked up from 17% to 30% in the past 24 hours.

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About the Author

Bill Speros

More About Bill

Bill is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post. He's been covering the North American regulated gambling market for almost a decade and has his finger on the pulse for all industry news involving sportsbooks, online casinos, prediction markets and more. Bill placed his first bet at age 11, and his first job was as a paper boy delivering the Boston Herald and Boston Globe. By age 16, he was playing blackjack and getting comped drinks on the Las Vegas Strip. When home, his weekend rotation included trips to Wonderland Greyhound Park and Raynham Greyhound Park. After 30 years in legacy media, Bill wedded his passion for journalism and storytelling with a lifetime of wagering by working at Gambling.com.

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