Trading Volume Surges On Kalshi Concerning Mike Vrabel's Future With Patriots But He Can't Bet On Himself
Prediction markets continue to see heavy trading on whether Mike Vrabel will be coaching the Patriots for the 2026 NFL season. The odds Friday settled a bit back in Vrabel's favor following a update from NFL insider Albert Breer that the team had no plans to fire their coach.
Users have placed more than $448,202 in trades on Vrabel's fate in Kalshi's "New England: Head Coach Week 1" market. More than $50,000 of that volume has come in the past 24 hours. It opened on April 23. Earlier that day, ESPN reported Vrabel would be missing Day 3 of the NFL Draft to attend marriage counseling.
"If he's out, that has a lot of implication for the health of the team, that's why we listed it," Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana told Bookies.com Friday. "Coach markets do extremely well on Kalshi because there's a lot of movement. People are watching them really closely. It just has a lot of impact. But this one sort of tipped into the national interest. So it's a fun, interesting market from that perspective, both from a news perspective, but then also like a sports perspective."
Kalshi does not release data in terms of where its trades are made. Kalshi remains able to offer sports-related prediction market contracts in Massachusetts. A lawsuit filed by Attorney General Andrea Campbell led to a lower court judge issuing an injunction. But an appeals court issued a stay and held arguments this week. It expects to issue a ruling this summer.
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Vrabel's Odd To Be Out Peaked This Week
Vrabel's price as Patriots head coach for Week 1 traded as low as 60% on Thursday, matching his lowest numbers since that market launched. His price in that market peaked at 85% in the first hours after its opening. Friday, Vrabel traded at 69% to be head coach in Week 1, followed by OC Josh McDaniels at 38%.
Kalshi's "Pro Football Coach Out Before September" market, meanwhile, saw strong Vrabel trading action prior to the Patriots-specific market's launch. That market, which opened in January, had seen $972,870 in trades as of Friday. Bookies.com reported on April 23 that Vrabel's price to be out at Patriots coach in that market peaked at 42%, with more than $100,000 of that trading volume coming in the 24 hours between Wednesday and Thursday.
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Why Mike Vrabel Can't Trade On His Future With The Patriots
Kalshi partners with IC360 to prevent insider-trading in its sports-related markets. IC360 works with multiple professional leagues - including the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL. IC360 provides Kalshi with information about players, league employees, and others who would otherwise be prohibited from betting on sports through state-licensed sports books. Kalshi operates under the regulation of the federal government's Commodities Futures Trading Commission. In addition to the personal information provided by IC360, including but not limited to social security numbers, Kalshi tracks "social connections" on its own to further insure against insider trades.
"This goes further than the stock market (SEC guidelines). The stock market only looks at households. His wife would be considered in his household. But we look outside of the household," Diana said. "So let's say Mike Vrabel gave his cousin's friend a tip. That's we look at that. We look at the behavior."
Kalshi began its own voluntary self-exclusion program in March.
Vrabel Trades Began In Earnest Last Month
Traders on Kalshi first began making larger trades on Vrabel's future in April when it was first reported that he was visiting an elite Arizona resort with former Athletic NFL reporter Dianna Russini. Since those initial stories, photos, and videos of the couple have surfaced in multiple intimate public settings. TMZ Wednesday and Thursday posted evidence and videos of Vrabel and Russini renting a boat in Tennessee in 2021 when she was seven months pregnant. Both are married to other people.
At times, up to 90% of Kalshi's trading volumes come in the form of sport-related contract trades. The company said on Wednesday it now has a $22 billion valuation.
The Vrabel-related trades on Polymarket, the bulk of whose trading takes place outside the U.S., have seen $11,948 in trades on its "Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026?" market. Vrabel's odds to be dismissed by the end of the year spiked up from 17% to 35% on Thursday before settling at 27% Friday.
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