Waste Management 2026: PGA Tour Picks and Leans For TPC Scottsdale

By Bookies.com Staff

Feb 4th, 2026 9:37 AM EST

1

50 Players redeemed today!

$1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets If You Don't Win
Promo Code: BOOKIES

Bonus Code

BOOKIES

Visit Site

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR) 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

Super Bowl week always gives the Waste Management some pop out in Scottsdale every year, and this week's edition should be no different. Two-time winners Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama and Brooks Koepka are here, as are other big names like Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young.

This golf betting season, Bookies.com will provide analysis from a variety of experts across the space, including leans on first round leaders, longshots, top 20s, matchups and much more.

In a week following Justin Rose boat-racing the field at Torrey Pines, let's hope this weekend's leaderboard gets a little more volatile.

So start your 2026 golf card off right with insight from a variety of sources below before you head to your favorite U.S. sports betting app.

What To Know About TPC Scottsdale

Betting at TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open is as much about managing the "noise" as it is about the golf. Here is a four-point breakdown of what you need to know before placing your bets for the 2026 tournament:

• Prioritize Total Driving and Distance: TPC Scottsdale is one of the most "driver-heavy" courses on the PGA Tour. The desert air and 1,530-foot elevation allow the ball to carry significantly further, adding about 7-8 yards to a 300-yard drive. While the rough is generally non-penal, 15 of the last 16 winners ranked inside the top 55 in Total Driving for the season. Look for bombers who can maintain accuracy.
• The Altitude Adjustment on Approach: Because the ball flies further and the greens are often firm and fast (Bermuda base over-seeded with Rye/Poa), elite Strokes Gained: Approach is the ultimate predictor here. Winners typically gain over 1.5 strokes per round on the field with their irons. Players who naturally hit a high ball flight have a distinct advantage in stopping the ball on these firm desert greens.
• Target Par-5 Birdie Machines: With a winning score often pushing toward -20, you cannot win this tournament without dominating the three par-5s (Holes 3, 13, and 15). These holes historically play as some of the easiest on Tour, with birdie-or-better rates exceeding 40%. Check for players who rank in the top 10 for Par-5 Scoring Gained over their last 24 rounds.
• Mental Fortitude at the "Coliseum": The back nine at TPC Scottsdale is a psychological gauntlet, specifically the par-3 16th. The stadium atmosphere is unlike any other event, and players who struggle with crowd noise or high-pressure environments often leak strokes on the closing stretch. Course history is highly predictive here (the 5th most predictive on Tour) because it identifies players like Scottie Scheffler and Hideki Matsuyama who thrive under the unique Phoenix chaos.

Now enough course talk, let's pick some winners.

Waste Management Winner Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Cameron Young +2450

We're asked to pick the winner in the B Flight, right? The non-Scottie Scheffler division? Young has finally proven he can win (2025 Wyndham), has shown he can go low, which will be required this week (22-under at said Wyndham) and has mastered TPC Scottsdale to the tune of T12 last year and T8 the year before.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Scottie Scheffler +225

Why wouldn't you? Let's not get cute. He did finish T25 here last year — his worst finish of the season — but I'm going to call that an outlier. Scheffler got his first win here back in 2022, repeated in 2023 and finished T3 in 204. He also started this year red hot with a win at another desert tournament. 

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Maverick McNealy +3300

McNealy has won me over since getting snubbed for last year's Ryder Cup team. He's posted consecutive top 10s here (T6 in 2024, T9 last year) and is coming in off a top 10 at Torrey Pines. He may just have 1 career win so far, but there's a reason he has shorter odds than the likes of Viktor Hovland, Chris Gotterup and Harris English, to name a few other contenders with longer CVs.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Cameron Young +2450

Outside of Scottie Scheffler, Cam Young is the hottest golfer right now. After winning the Wyndham in August, he hasn’t finished lower than T22. Young has done quite well in Scottsdale the last two years with a T8 & T12. He checks all the boxes in terms of course fit and if he can keep the driver accurate, look for a low # from Young.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Scottie Scheffler +225

Why would you against the No. 1 player in the world at this point? Scheffler got his first PGA Tour victory in Phoenix just four years ago which led to a standout 2022 that includes his first Masters win, too. I know the value here is terrible, but after watching him dominate in Palm Springs seemingly without lifting a finger, I have no reason to believe anyone will challenge him at TPC Scottsdale.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Xander Schauffele +2000

The People’s Open returns to TPC Scottsdale this week. Before you hit the 16th hole and start drinking, ponder this star-studded field. Scottie Scheffler makes his 2nd start of the season and aims for his 2nd win of 2026. He’s joined by 10 fellow top 20 players. That includes our pick to win this week – Xander Schauffele. Scheffler (+230) soaks up money like a titled craps table. This number on Xander is way too good to pass.

Top Sportsbook

BetMGM Sports

$1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets If You Don't Win
Promo Code: BOOKIES

Waste Management Top 20 Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Jordan Spieth +174

Spieth hasn't done much in many places the past five years. But he has at the WMPO. He has finished fourth twice and sixth twice in that span, making +174 a very nice price for such excellence. Spieth got his season off on the right note in his first PGA Tour start after offseason wrist surgery with a top-25 at the Sony.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Sahith Theegala +176

Let's keep it rolling with our longshot last week who finished T7 at Torrey Pines. Theegala has good course history here (should have won in 2022) and added another fifth place in 2024. Pair of Top 10s already this year.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Michael Thorbjornsen +196

It feels like Thor has been around awhile, but he's only 24 years old and his best golf is ahead of him. Became a top 10 machine late last year. I like this course fit for him coming off a T18 last week at Torrey.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Jordan Spieth +175

I’m all in on Spieth this week. This guy feeds off a crowd and his past history here just speaks volumes. He has finished T6, T6 and T4 in last 3 starts in Scottsdale. It might be a chump move to follow course history alone, but you can call me a chump this week.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Chris Gotterup +130

Plus money seems like good value for the young standout who should be able to get around quite nicely this week. Gotterup's length off the tee will no doubt be an advantage, and should keep him in the mix even if the other areas of his game aren't up to snuff. I honestly would not be surprised if Gotterup is challenging for a top 5 come Sunday.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Rickie Fowler +180

Rickie loves the crowd at TPC Scottsdale. And the crowd at TPC Scottsdale loves Rickie. He won here in 2019 and has plenty of game to reach the 2nd page of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon

Top Sportsbook

BetMGM Sports

$1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets If You Don't Win
Promo Code: BOOKIES

First Round Leader Bets

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Sahith Theegala +4600

Theegala loves this place. It's where he announced himself to the golf world four years ago with a tie for third, dueling Scheffler, Cantlay and Koepka to the wire. He then finished fifth two years later. Theegala opened those weeks with a 66 and 65, respectively. He'll almost surely need to do better than that -- the over/under on the FRL at golfodds.com was set at 63.5 -- but Theegala has the putter working early this season. He is ranked 15th on Tour in SG: Putting and is coming off consecutive top-10s.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Maverick McNealy +4300

Coming off a T10 at Torrey Pines, he's also finished top 10 at the WM in two of his three starts here as a pro. 

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Pierceson Coody +5400

My card this week is full of young guns who send it off the tee. Coody might have the best form of them all. T13 at Sony, T18 at AmEx (was also FRL) and T2 last week. He might become my Mr. Thursday this season.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Maverick McNealy +4300

McNealy has started well in 2026 with a T24 at the Sony Open and finishing 10th last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. On top of that, McNealy has finished in the Top 10 in both of his starts at the Phoenix Open. If he can give himself some birdie looks with the irons, McNealy is 26th on Tour in putting. Watch out on Thursday.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Viktor Hovland +4400

The Norwegian has more than enough firepower to go lower than anyone else in the talented field during his first 18 holes. While I don't have enough confidence in Hovland's game at the moment to place a wager on his entire tournament, a flyer on his first round prospects feels justifiable.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Scottie Scheffler +1000

Scottie is +225 to win it all and +1000 to lead after 18 holes. He needs no tune up time here.

Top Sportsbook

BetMGM Sports

$1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets If You Don't Win
Promo Code: BOOKIES

Waste Management Longshots

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Jacob Bridgeman +12500

Perhaps the most anonymous guy of the 30 who made the Tour Championship last season, Bridgeman has picked up nicely in 2026. He tied for fourth at the Sony, then 13th at the Amex. It's only two starts, but he finds himself ranked in the top-25 on Tour in both SG: Approach and Putting.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Hatong Li +9000

Thirteenth in total strokes gained this year on the PGA Tour.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Andrew Novak +10500

T7 at Farmers last week and top 10'd at Phoenix in 2024. The Tour's biggest NFL fan breaking through on Super Bowl weekend? Crazier things have happened.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Sepp Straka +8800

Straka matches well with a few statistics that I like for the Phoenix Open course: SG:OTT and Par 5 scoring. Last season, Straka finished 18th in SG:OTT and 10th in Par 5 scoring on the PGA Tour. He finished in the Top 15 here last year and I think he fits what I’m looking for in a longshot winner

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Marco Penge +7800

The 3-time DP World Tour winner turned PGA Tour rookie has a bunch of potential in my eyes. TPC Scottsdale has been friendly to players looking to break through, and I could see Penge swing just that this weekend.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Matt McCarty +7000

He slipped into the top 20 last week (T18) at Torrey Pines. He missed the cut here last year, but has reached the weekend in his past eight starts going back to The Open Championship.

Recent History of Waste Management

Who's Who In Bookies Golf Roundtable

Len Hochberg has covered golf for RotoWire since 2013. A veteran sports journalist, he was an editor and reporter at The Washington Post for nine years. Len is a three-time winner of the FSWA DFS Writer of the Year Award (2020, '22 and '23) and a five-time nominee (2019-23). He is also a writer and editor for MLB Advanced Media.

Josh Carpenter covers golf and sports media for Sports Business Journal, having been with the publication since 2012. Away from the office, Josh loves playing golf and spending time with his wife Amy and son, Walt. He is an avid supporter of the Carolina Hurricanes and Tennessee Volunteers.

Thomas Leary is a senior editor with Gambling.com Group who works across a variety of the company's portfolios, including Bookies.com. Previously, Thomas spent over six years at Sports Business Journal where he helped launch the digital newsletter division. He is a Charlotte, NC native and long-suffering Hornets fan.

Jared Kimble is a media manager with Gambling.com Group who oversees the group's North American digital PR efforts. Jared previously worked for the Orlando Magic. A Pennsylvania native, he is an Elon University graduate and currently resides in Charlotte, NC.

David Rumsey is a reporter at Front Office Sports, focusing on golf, college football, and the NFL. He has a B.A. in Communication Studies from Southern Adventist University in Chattanooga, Tenn. David is based in Charleston, S.C.

Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.

Comments

Sign In | Sign Up

Post

View more