By Adam Thompson | | 4 mins
5 Chiefs-Broncos Prop Bets & Betting Lines to Back on TNF
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have lost two in a row, while Joe Flacco and the Denver Broncos have won two straight. The AFC West rivals face off to open Week 7 on Thursday Night Football.
The Broncos have been a stellar short-week team, covering the spread in 10 of their last 12 Thursday Night Football appearances. The Chiefs have dominated the AFC West lately, on a 14-4 ATS tear. Let’s take a look at some of the best bets fans of NFL betting should consider:
Chiefs-Broncos Best BetsPick Expired
OTHER BETS TO BACK
- First To 30 Points | Neither -107 888sport
- Highest Scoring Half | Second -107 DraftKings
- Total Turnovers | 2-3 +119 William Hill
- Travis Kelce Scores TD | Yes +120 FanDuel
All odds current as of publication but subject to change. Check out the latest Chiefs-Broncos odds here.
PICK 1: Broncos +3
It’s going to be a huge test for the Broncos defense against a motivated Mahomes. But the key to Denver’s success has been stopping the run. When the Broncos allow 100 yards rushing, they’re 1-17 since 2017. But KC averages just 82 ypg this year.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ defense got torched by Deshaun Watson and the Texans’ run game last week. It ranks 30th in stopping the run, a perfect combo of strength vs. weakness that Denver can exploit. Add in this game being in the Mile High City on a short week and the Broncos’ TNF success coupled with the Chiefs’ 0-5 ATS slide in primetime.
PICK 2: First Team to 30 Points – Neither
Neither side has scored more than 27 points in any Broncos game this season. In three games at Denver, the winning team has managed more than 16 points just once.
The Chiefs, of course, are a perfect team to buck that trend. The winning team has eclipsed 30 points in four out of six KC games. I think the Broncos keep this game close with a gameplan highlighted by running the ball, shortening the game and keeping Mahomes off the field. Denver’s fourth-ranked defense will get holds, at least every now and then.
PICK 3: Highest-scoring half – Second Half
The second half has featured more points than the first half in every game played at Denver this season. Denver has been a successful first-half team thanks to its defense. The odds are nearly even for a second-half boost. The Chiefs allow exactly 13.0 ppg in each half, but the Broncos’ defense has been much better early on, while their offense has led the way late.
PICK 4: Turnovers Combined – 2-3
This one is all about averages. These teams combine to commit 2.5 turnovers per game. They combine to create 2.7 takeaways per game. Getting 2-3 at a plus-price is worth a leap.
PICK 5: Travis Kelce TD – Yes
Kelce, one of the premier tight ends any way you break it down, is one of the Mahomes’ top weapons, and that’s amplified close to the goal line. Kelce ranks third among tight ends with 49 targets on the season, but he’s first with eight targets in the red zone.
He has just one TD this season but leads all TEs with 497 receiving yards. The Broncos haven’t been able to do much about Kelce in the past – he’s scored a TD in four consecutive games against Denver.
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