By Jim Coventry | | 9 mins
NFL DFS Week 3 Value Plays & Picks For FanDuel & DraftKings
Through two weeks, many daily fantasy players have developed a biased opinion on players based on a tiny sample size. Week 3 is always a great time to exploit inefficiencies in the market.
And of course, sometimes it doesn’t hurt to ride a few of the bona-fide superstars.
NFL DFS Week 3 Main Slate, Ranked by Over/Under
- Bills vs Dolphins - 53
- Lions vs Vikings - 52.5
- Chiefs vs Colts - 50.5
- Rams vs Cardinals - 48.5
- Eagles vs Commanders - 47.5
- Raiders vs Titans - 45.5
- Bengals vs Jets - 44.5
- Ravens vs Patriots - 44
- 49ers vs Broncos - 43.5
- Jaguars vs Chargers - 42.5
- Packers vs Buccaneers - 42
- Falcons vs Seahawks - 42
- Saints vs Panthers - 41
- Texans vs Bears - 39.5
Highest Implied Team Totals
- Vikings - 29.5
- Bills - 29
- Chiefs - 28
- Chargers - 27
- Eagles - 26.5
- Rams - 26
- Bengals - 25.5
- Raiders, Lions, Dolphins, Ravens - 23.5
- 49ers - 23
- Cardinals, Colts - 22.5
- Saints - 22
- Titans, Broncos, Bucs, Bears - 21.5
- Seahawks, Falcons - 21
- Patriots, Packers, Commanders - 20.5
- Jaguars - 20
- Jets - 19.5
- Panthers - 19
- Texans - 18.5
NFL DFS Week 3 Quarterbacks for FanDuel & DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs at Colts - FD $8,700 DK $7,900
The main point here is that Indy’s defensive coordinator is Gus Bradley. If you’re not sure who he is - he was the Raiders defensive coordinator last year. He typically doesn’t make adjustments based on opponents, and his defenses stubbornly play the Cover-3 that Mahomes historically shreds.
The Chiefs put up 41 and 48 points while averaging over 320 yards and 3.5 passing TDs against Bradley last year. Not only should he have a lot of success with his typical weapons in the middle of the field, but against this style of defense, we can easily see 2-3 explosive passing plays as well.
Jalen Hurts- Eagles at Commanders - FD $8,100 DK $7,600
Picking up where they left off last year, the Commanders are getting torched on defense. To date, they are giving up 32 points per game and they’ve played the Jaguars and Lions, not exactly the top offenses in the league. Jalen Hurts has added improved passing accuracy to his lethal running game this year, giving him enormous upside against this reeling defense.
Although Washington has an above average pass rush, they’re facing an Eagles offensive line that is playing at a dominant level, so it’s unlikely he’ll deal with consistent pressure. Washington has given up 2.5 passing TDs per game despite not facing an explosive passing offense. Also, the Commanders have been lighting up the scoreboard on offense, so this game could easily shoot out, raising Hurts’ upside.
Kirk Cousins - Vikings vs. Lions - FD $7,600 DK $6,700
Cousins was awful in Week 2. Not only did he complete fewer than 60% of his passes, he threw three interceptions. He was unable to overcome the combination of the pass rush and the Eagles’ strong coverage in the secondary. And through two games, he’s averaging just 250 passing yards and 1.5 TDs. The good news is that he’ll be at home and facing the Lions.
Detroit has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, including an average of 290 passing yards per game. In addition, they have one of the least effective pass rushes in the league, despite rookie Aidan Hutchinson getting off to a hot start. Along with the weak pass rush, the Lions’ CBs will be overmatched by the Vikings WRs. Cousins is set up for a ceiling game this week.
Also Consider - Derek Carr, Justin Fields
NFL DFS Week 3 Running Backs for FanDuel & DraftKings
Leonard Fournette- Buccaneers vs. Packers - FD $7,200 DK $6,500
The Packers may have a championship-level defense, but they do have a weak spot. Fortunately for the Buccaneers, the Green Bay soft spot is the one thing the Bucs want to attack - the run defense. Through two games, the Packers are giving up over six yards per carry, and they just were gashed by David Montgomery and Chicago’s underwhelming offensive line.
With Tampa Bay dealing with injuries and suspensions across their wide receivers and offensive line, they’ll need to rely heavily on Fournette. Although he already has a 127-yard game on the ground this year, he hasn’t gotten going as a receiver yet. Over the last seven games last year, he averaged seven targets, and it’s likely the Bucs will need him in that capacity as well. Between volume and matchup, he’s in a great spot.
David Montgomery- Bears vs. Texans - FD $7,100 DK $5,900
It’s easy to just look at last week and see that Montgomery had 122 yards on 15 carries and choose to ride the hot hand in DFS. In reality, he faced a soft Green Bay run defense. However, the matchup is even easier this week. Through two games, the Texans have given up 287 rushing yards, the second most in the league. And we saw last week that when Montgomery is running well, Khalil Herbert is less of a factor in terms of taking work away from him.
Even though the Bears will likely pass the ball more against Houston than they did in the first two weeks of the season, they’ll likely try to lean on the run. They have no issue shortening the game and keeping it close throughout. So between the matchup and likely game script, Montgomery should have volume and production, along with a chance to find the end zone.
Dalvin Cook - Vikings vs. Lions - FD $8,300 DK $7,900
Cook did very little in a blowout loss to the Eagles last week. Game script was terrible and the Vikings were unable to sustain drives. The result was Cook posting just 36 total yards. We saw in the season opener against the Packers that he’s a major focal point of the offense, handling 23 touches on 47 snaps. In addition to his game-breaking ability as a runner, he’s been targeted 5.5 times per game.
He should be busy as a receiver against a defense that’s given up 6.5 receptions per game to RBs. With Detroit expected to have their hands full against Justin Jefferson and the Vikings pass attack, Cook should see big running lanes, putting him in a smash spot.
Also Consider - Aaron Jones, Dameon Pierce
NFL DFS Week 3 Wide Receivers for FanDuel & DraftKings
Justin Jefferson- Vikings vs. Lions - FD $9,500 DK $9,300
Targets certainly won’t be a problem for Jefferson. Through two games, he’s had 11 and 12 passes thrown his way. Of course, after blowing up in Week 1, the Eagles frustrated the entire Minnesota offense in Week 2, and Jefferson was held to fewer than 50 yards. When facing the Lions last year, he averaged 153 yards with a TD. Not only does
Detroit lack the CBs to deal with him, but the Vikings' new offensive system places an emphasis on featuring their star WR. Coming off a bad showing in Week 2 and playing at home in one of the best home-field advantages in the league, Jefferson and the Minnesota offense should provide huge fantasy numbers.
Davante Adams - Raiders at Titans - FD $8,700 DK $8,400
In losing to the Cardinals last week, the biggest mistake the Raiders made was giving Adams just seven targets. Even Mack Hollins had more passes thrown his way. Las Vegas has started off the season winless, and they will be desperate for a W. This is exactly the situation in which turning to the best player on the team is critical.
Don’t be surprised if Adams repeats the 17 targets he had in Week 1. And the matchup is excellent. Tennessee has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Receivers are averaging a league-high 10.7 yards per target against the Titans, resulting in the fifth-most yards given up to the position. They’ve also allowed the fourth-most TDs to WRs, and Adams has a great chance of adding a score to a likely huge yardage total.
Tee Higgins - Bengals at Jets - FD $7,300 DK $6,100
After getting knocked out of the Bengals’ opener with a concussion and then doing very little in the first half in Week 2, Higgins got back on track. With the Dallas pass rush wreaking havoc on Joe Burrow, the passing attack struggled. But Higgins was able to overcome the situation, posting 71 yards and a TD. Finally, the Bengals will face a defense that lacks an elite pass rush.
The Jets will also find their CBs substantially out-matched. Burrow and the entire passing attack need a big game to kickstart Cincinnati's season. If it loses, its playoff hopes are likely gone. Although both Ja’Marr Chase and Higgins are in position for big games, it’s Higgins who’s much more affordable in DFS.
Also Consider - Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Darnell Mooney
NFL DFS Week 3 Tight Ends for FanDuel & DraftKings
Dallas Goedert - Eagles at Commanders - FD $5,500 DK $4,700
Goedert is picking up where he left off in 2021. He finished last season posting at least 71 yards in four of his last five games. He’s averaging 71 yards through two games despite averaging five targets. With defenses worrying about A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, Goedert consistently finds himself open. And with Jalen Hurts having developed great chemistry with his TE, he has an excellent scoring floor.
In two games against the Commanders last year, he averaged 6.5 receptions and 103 yards. Even though Washington appears to be doing well against TEs this season, one of their two games was against the Panthers, who don’t make much use of the position in the passing game. Overall, Goedert is very underpriced in DFS for his floor/ceiling combination.
Cole Kmet - Bears vs. Texans - FD $5,000 DK $3,400
Why would anyone consider playing a TE who hasn’t caught a single pass in two games, while seeing a total of two targets? To start the season, Kmet faced Fred Warner of the 49ers, an elite pass defender, while playing in a monsoon. Then in Week 2, the Bears threw very few passes while Chicago faced one of the best pass defenses in the league.
Things will begin to normalize this week. Don’t forget, Kmet was targeted at least five times in 11 of his last 12 games in 2021, and he posted at least 40 yards in nine of those games. During the preseason, Kmet was a primary target for Justin Fields, and with the Bears likely to air it out more this week, Kmet is a great option with a cheap DFS price tag.